气候变化对中国水稻生产的影响研究进展

凌霄霞,张作林,翟景秋,叶树春,黄见良

A review for impacts of climate change on rice production in China

Xiao-Xia LING,Zuo-Lin ZHANG,Jing-Qiu ZHAI,Shu-Chun YE,Jian-Liang HUANG

表1 当前气候变化对中国水稻产量的影响

Table 1 Impact of climate change on rice grain yield in China

稻作类型 Rice system 研究区域 Region 研究时段 Period 变化趋势Change trend 评估方法 Method 参考文献 Reference 统计模型a Statistical modela (t hm-210 yr-1) 作物模型b Crop modelb (t hm-210 yr-1) 单季稻 Single rice 全国4个站点 Four stations of China 1981-2009 0.85 -0.45 RiceGrow [36] 单季稻 Single rice 东北 Northeast China 1980-2010 1.07 -0.01 ORYZA2000 [5] 单季稻 Single rice 华北 North China 1980-2010 0.58 -0.31 ORYZA2000 [5] 早稻 Early rice 3个双季稻试验站点 Three stations of double rice experiment 1981-2009 0.37 -0.09 RiceGrow [37] 晚稻 Late rice 3个双季稻试验站点 Three stations of double rice experiment 1981-2009 0.53 -0.10 RiceGrow [37] 单、双季稻 Single and double rice 华东 Eastern China 1980-2010 0.61 -0.56 ORYZA2000 [5] 单、双季稻 Single and double rice 华中 Central China 1980-2010 0.63 -0.27 ORYZA2000 [5] 单、双季稻 Single and double rice 西南 Southwest China 1980-2010 0.86 -0.26 ORYZA2000 [5] 双季稻 Double rice 华南 Southern China 1980-2010 0.75 -0.17 ORYZA2000 [5] — 平均 Average 1980-2010 0.69 -0.25 — — 水稻 Rice 全国 China 1961-2010 — -11.5% CERES-Rice [11] 水稻 Rice 全国 China 1961-2010 — -12.4% (-4.2%) CERES-Rice [54] — 平均 Average 1961-2010 — -12.0% — — 水稻 Rice 全国 China 1981-2010 — (2%) EPIC, DSSAT [45] 水稻 Rice 全国 China 1980-2009 — (4.4%) Agro-C [44] 单季稻 Single rice 全国 China 1980-2009 — (3.4%) Agro-C [44] 早稻 Early rice 双季稻区 Double rice region 1980-2009 — (4.8%) Agro-C [44] 晚稻 Late rice 双季稻区 Double rice region 1980-2009 — (7.8%) Agro-C [44] 单季稻 Single rice 东北 Northeast China 1981-2009 1.01% to 3.29% — Panel model [14] 单季稻 Single rice 长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River 1981-2009 -9.68% to-7.14% — Panel model [14] 早稻 Early rice 长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River 1981-2009 -0.59% to 2.40% — Panel model [14] 晚稻 Late rice 长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River 1981-2009 8.38% to 9.56% — Panel model [14] 水稻 Rice 南方稻区 Southern China 温度升高1℃ Elevated temperature 1℃ -3.48% to -2.52% — 经济-气候模型 Economy-Climate model [103] 双季稻 Double rice 南方稻区 Southern China 1980-2008 -0.17% yr-1 — Statistical model [94] 稻作类型 Rice system 研究区域 Region 研究时段 Period 变化趋势Change trend 评估方法 Method 参考文献 Reference 统计模型a Statistical modela (t hm-210 yr-1) 作物模型b Crop modelb (t hm-210 yr-1) 单季稻 Single rice 东北 Northeast China 1980-2008 0.59% yr-1 — Statistical model [94] 单季稻 Single rice 云贵高原 Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau 1980-2008 0.34% yr-1 — Statistical model [94] 单季稻 Single rice 四川盆地 Sichuan Basin 1980-2008 -0.29% yr-1 — Statistical model [94]