气候变化对中国水稻生产的影响研究进展

凌霄霞,张作林,翟景秋,叶树春,黄见良

A review for impacts of climate change on rice production in China

Xiao-Xia LING,Zuo-Lin ZHANG,Jing-Qiu ZHAI,Shu-Chun YE,Jian-Liang HUANG

表2 未来气候变化对水稻产量的可能影响

Table 2 Impact of future climate change on rice grain yield

稻作类型 Rice system 研究区域 Region 研究时段 Period 基准时段 Baseline 气候情景a Climate scenarioa 气候模式b Climate modelb 作物模型 Crop model 变化趋势c Change trendc 文献来源 Reference 气候变化 Climate change (%) CO2效应 CO2 effect (%) 适应策略 Adaptation (%) CO2效应+适应策略 CO2 effect + Adaptation (%) 单季稻 Single rice 中国东部 Eastern China 2020s, 2050s, 2080s 1961-1990 A1FI, B1 5 GCMs MCWLA-Rice -15.8 (-29.4 to -3.7) 8.4 (0.7 to 13.2) — — [92] 单、双季稻 Single and double rice 长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River 2021-2050 1961-1990 A2, B2 PRECIS RCM ORYZA2000 -15.1 -5.5 — — [86] 早稻、单季稻 Early and single rice 南方稻区 Southern China 2071-2090 1961-1990 B2 PRECIS RCM CERES-Rice -3.8 (-7.0 to -0.25) 8.6 (5.0 to 20.0) — — [87] 单、双季稻 Single and double rice 全国6个站点 Six stations of China 2001-2100 1961-1990 ET1℃,2℃,3℃ 5 GCMs CERES-Rice -20.4 (-40.2 to -6.1) -4.8 (-19.3 to 0.18) — — [83] 单、双季稻 Single and double rice 全国 China 2020s, 2050s, 2080s 1961-1990 A2, B2 PRECIS RCM CERES-Rice -10.8 (-26.2 to 6.3) 3.5 (-5.6 to 15.8) — — [82] 早稻、晚稻 Early and late rice 双季稻区 Double rice region — 1961-1990 A(ET1.7℃) DKRZ OPYC(LSG) 双季稻生长动力模拟模型 Dynamic growth simulation model for double-rice -15.2 (-19.0 to -11.2) — 8.7 (-7.0 to 23.1) — [104] 水稻 Rice 全国 China 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, 2050s 2009 A2, B2 PRECIS RCM CERES-Rice — 10.5 (6.0-18.0) — 15.8 (11.0 to 21.0) [105] 单、双季稻 Single and double rice 全国 China 2011-2050 2000-2009 A2, B2 PRECIS RCM Agro-C -3.3 20.9 3.2 28.6 [106] 单、双季稻 Single and double rice 全国 China 2030s, 2050s, 2070s 2000s RCP4.5 17 GCMs CERES-Rice — -0.9 (-11.0 to 11.0) 4.9 (1.0 to 11.0) — [78] 单、双季稻 Single and double rice 全国 China 2106-2115 2006-2015 ET1.5℃, 2.0℃ 4 GCMs MCWLA-Rice -0.9 (-0.7, 2.4) 6.8 (4.1, 9.4) — — [84] — 平均 Average — — — — — -10.7 5.3 5.6 22.2 — 水稻 Rice 全球 World 2070-2100 1981-2010 RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 11-22 ESMs 7 Global grid-based models -3.3, -5.5, -6.8, -10.8 — — — [85]