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作物学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (5): 1279-1290.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2026.53079

• 综述 •    下一篇

基于产量差的作物大面积单产提升策略与展望

王宇诚1(), 张露2(), 刘阿康3, 黄见良1, 彭少兵1, 袁珅1,*()   

  1. 1 作物遗传改良全国重点实验室 / 湖北洪山实验室 / 农业农村部长江中游作物生理生态与耕作重点实验室 / 华中农业大学植物科学技术学院, 湖北武汉 430070
    2 华中农业大学经济管理学院, 湖北武汉 430070
    3 全国农业技术推广服务中心, 北京 100125
  • 收稿日期:2025-10-15 接受日期:2026-01-22 出版日期:2026-05-12 网络出版日期:2026-01-26
  • 通讯作者: *袁珅, E-mail: syuan@mail.hzau.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:王宇诚, E-mail: wangyc@webmail.hzau.edu.cn;
    张露, E-mail: luzhang@mail.hzau.edu.cn
    **同等贡献
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(T2261129473);国家自然科学基金项目(72473049);国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFD1900600);武汉市自然科学基金探索计划(2024040801020290);财政部和农业农村部国家现代农业产业技术体系建设专项(CARS-01)

Strategies and prospects for large-scale crop yield improvement based on yield gap

Wang Yu-Cheng1(), Zhang Lu2(), Liu A-Kang3, Huang Jian-Liang1, Peng Shao-Bing1, Yuan Shen1,*()   

  1. 1 National Key Laboratory of Crop Genetic Improvement / Hubei Hongshan Laboratory / MARA Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River / College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, Hubei, China
    2 College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, Hubei, China
    3 National Agricultural Technology Extension and Service Center, Beijing 100125, China
  • Received:2025-10-15 Accepted:2026-01-22 Published:2026-05-12 Published online:2026-01-26
  • Contact: *Yuan Shen, E-mail: syuan@mail.hzau.edu.cn
  • About author:First author contact:**Contributed equally to this work
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(T2261129473);National Natural Science Foundation of China(72473049);National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFD1900600);Natural Science Foundation of Wuhan(2024040801020290);China Agriculture Research System of MOF and MARA(CARS-01)

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摘要：

在“新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升行动”背景下, 大面积单产提升被确立为保障国家粮食安全的核心战略路径。近年来, 尽管我国粮食总产量持续稳定增长, 但在水土资源紧张和生态环境压力不断加剧的条件下, 依赖扩大耕地面积实现增产的空间已十分有限。围绕“主要粮食作物是否仍具备增产潜力、增产空间有多大以及如何实现”等关键科学问题, 产量潜力与产量差研究为定量评估增产空间、识别限制因素及设计增产技术路径提供了重要理论与方法支撑。本文系统梳理了产量潜力评估和产量差解析的研究进展, 揭示了不同作物和区域的潜在增产空间及关键制约环节, 并据此提出了面向大面积单产提升的差异化技术路径: 对于产量差较大的地区, 应以优化栽培管理和资源配置为重点, 加快缩小可利用产量差; 对于产量差较小的地区, 则需通过育种创新、关键技术突破与种植制度优化, 推动产量潜力上限提升。与此同时, 分析了当前增产技术推广应用中面临的主要瓶颈, 指出科研成果与农户实际生产之间衔接不足, 导致技术大面积落地转化困难。未来, 有必要在产量潜力评估、产量差诊断、技术集成与推广机制等环节形成协同闭环, 通过技术创新与政策和制度支持的协同推进, 在有限耕地和资源环境约束条件下实现粮食生产能力的持续提升, 为国家粮食安全和农业可持续发展提供科学支撑。

关键词: 大面积单产提升, 产量潜力, 产量差, 技术路径, 粮食安全

Abstract:

In the context of the “New Round of the 100-Billion-Jin Grain Production Capacity Enhancement Initiative”, large-scale yield improvement has been identified as a core strategic pathway for ensuring national food security in China. Although national grain production has remained high and stable in recent years, further yield increases through cropland expansion are increasingly constrained by limited water and soil resources and growing environmental pressures. Addressing the key scientific questions of “whether major food crops still have room for yield improvement, how large this potential is, and how it can be realized”, research on yield potential and yield gaps provide an essential theoretical and methodological foundation to quantify production potential, identify limiting factors, and design yield-enhancement strategies. This paper systematically reviews recent advances in yield potential assessment and yield gap analysis, revealing the magnitude of untapped yield potential and the dominant constraints across different crops and regions. Based on these insights, differentiated technical pathways for large-scale yield improvement are proposed. In regions with large yield gaps, priority should be given to optimizing crop management practices and resource allocation to accelerate yield gap closure. In contrast, in areas where yield gaps are relatively small, further yield gains rely on breeding innovation, key technological breakthroughs, and cropping system optimization to raise yield ceilings. In addition, this paper analyzes major bottlenecks in the dissemination and application of yield-enhancing technologies, highlighting the persistent disconnect between scientific outputs and on-farm practices that hampers large-scale adoption. Looking ahead, establishing a coordinated and closed-loop framework encompassing yield potential assessment, yield gap diagnosis, technology integration, and on-farm implementation will be critical for translating scientific advances into sustained productivity gains. Through the synergistic advancement of technological innovations and supportive policy and system arrangements, China can continue to enhance its grain production capacity under constraints of limited arable land and environmental resources, thereby strengthening food security and agricultural sustainability.

Key words: large-scale yield improvement, yield potential, yield gap, technology pathways, food security

图1

产量潜力、可达到产量以及产量差的定义 产量潜力指在没有生物与非生物胁迫条件下, 作物在最优管理下能够达到的最高产量, 它受到自然条件如气候、土壤质量和CO2浓度等的影响。可达到产量是指在大面积生产条件下, 通过优化管理和技术应用, 农民能够实现的最大产量, 通常为产量潜力的80%。产量差是指产量潜力与实际产量之间的差异, 反映了作物在理想条件下和实际生产中的产量差距。它揭示了作物未能充分发挥潜力的程度, 通常由于资源或技术限制造成。可缩小产量差则是指可达到产量与实际产量之间的差距, 反映了在大面积生产条件下, 通过改进管理措施和技术应用能够缩小的产量差[20]。"

表1

产量潜力评估方法之间的比较"

方法
Method		 特点
Characteristic		 优点
Advantage		 局限性
Limitation
田间高产试验
Field high-yield trials		 科研人员在试验田中优化管理
Researchers optimize crop management in experimental plots		 精度高、结果直观
High accuracy, direct results		 覆盖面窄, 代表性不足
Limited coverage, poor representativeness
高产记录
High-yield records		 示范田或高水平农户田实测
Yield measured in demonstration fields or top-performing farmers’ fields		 可操作性强、激励作用大
Highly practical, strong incentive effect		 受自然条件和投入影响大, 缺乏普遍性
Strongly affected by natural conditions and inputs, limited generalizability
高产农户产量
Top farmer yields		 调查产量排名前5%-10%的农户
Based on surveys of the top 5%-10% highest-yielding farmers		 贴近实际、反映先进管理水平
Reflects real-world practices and advanced management		 调查成本高, 受样本代表性限制
High survey cost, limited by sample
representativeness
作物模型模拟
Crop model
simulation		 输入气象、土壤、品种等参数
Uses parameters such as climate, soil, and variety		 可跨区域、跨年份模拟, 适用性广
Applicable across regions and years, wide adaptability		 依赖数据质量, 结果不确定性大
Depending on data quality, results carry high uncertainty
遥感与机器学习
Remote sensing & machine learning		 多源遥感+统计/机器学习
Integrates multi-source remote sensing with statistical or machine learning methods		 空间覆盖广、估算快速
Broad spatial coverage, rapid
estimation		 受遥感分辨率与校准限制, 算法复杂
Limited by resolution and calibration of remote sensing data, algorithmic complexity

图2

我国玉米、水稻、小麦和大豆的产量差(表示为占产量潜力的百分数) 图A-H分别为我国灌溉玉米和雨养玉米[32], 单季稻和双季稻[33], 灌溉小麦和雨养小麦[32], 灌溉大豆和雨养大豆[34]系统在农业气候区水平的产量差。该图基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS (2024) 0650号的标准地图制作。底图边界无修改。"

图3

不同产量差情境下作物增产策略 本图展示了两类区域的划分及相应的技术优先措施。左侧部分表示产量差较大的区域, 主要目标是通过一系列措施缩小产量差并提升实际产量。关键技术包括: 精准施肥, 高效水分管理, 优化播种与移栽, 综合病虫草害管理和机械化作业。这些技术措施通过优化现有生产管理, 旨在缩小产量差提高当前生产条件下的产量水平。右侧部分表示产量差较小的区域, 主要目标是提高产量潜力, 突破产量上限。优先采取的技术措施包括: 育种创新与品种更新, 温光资源的高效利用以及灌溉面积的扩展。此类技术通过改善作物的生长环境, 增强作物产量潜力[46-48]。"

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