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作物学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (4): 1140-1152.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2026.55062

• 耕作栽培·生理生化 • 上一篇    下一篇

1981—2024年长江中下游油菜发育期时空格局演变特征

张全军1,2,3(), 吴东丽1,2,3,*(), 刘聪1,2,3,*(), 朱永超1,2,3, 杨大生1,2,3, 孔祥胜4   

  1. 1中国气象局气象探测中心, 北京 100081
    2临近空间环境特性及效应全国重点实验室, 北京 100081
    3中国气象局气象探测工程技术研究中心, 北京 100081
    4九江市气象局, 江西九江 332000
  • 收稿日期:2025-10-10 接受日期:2026-01-22 出版日期:2026-04-12 网络出版日期:2026-02-05
  • 通讯作者: *吴东丽, E-mail: wudongli666@126.com; 刘聪, E-mail: liucong@cma.gov.cn
  • 作者简介:E-mail: zhangqj@cma.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFD2301301);中国气象局创新发展专项项目(CXFZ2023J069);中国气象局气象探测中心生态与农业创新团队项目资助

Spatiotemporal evolution of rapeseed phenological periods in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River from 1981 to 2024

Zhang Quan-Jun1,2,3(), Wu Dong-Li1,2,3,*(), Liu Cong1,2,3,*(), Zhu Yong-Chao1,2,3, Yang Da-Sheng1,2,3, Kong Xiang-Sheng4   

  1. 1Meteorological Observation Centre of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing 100081, China
    2State Key Laboratory of Environment Characteristics and Effects for Near-space, Beijing 100081, China
    3Engineering Technology Research Center for Meteorological Observation of CMA, Beijing 100081, China
    4Jiujiang Meteorological Bureau, Jiujiang 332000, Jiangxi, China
  • Received:2025-10-10 Accepted:2026-01-22 Published:2026-04-12 Published online:2026-02-05
  • Contact: *E-mail: wudongli666@126.com; E-mail: liucong@cma.gov.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China(2024YFD2301301);Innovative Development Special Project of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2023J069);Ecological and Agricultural Observation Technology Innovation Team Project of Meteorological Observation Centre of China Meteorological Administration

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摘要：

为阐明长江中下游平原油菜发育期对地理环境与气候变化的响应机制, 本研究基于该区域50个气象站点1981—2024年的观测数据, 综合运用核密度估计、线性趋势和相关性分析等方法, 系统探究了油菜关键发育期及其长度的时空演变规律。结果表明: (1) 空间格局上, 油菜发育期与地理因子的关系存在显著的阶段转换: 营养生长阶段(播种、出苗和五真叶)表现为“高纬度-早播种”, 发育期与纬度呈负相关(r值为-0.200~ -0.285), 主要受规避冻害的栽培策略驱动; 而生殖生长阶段(开花、绿熟和成熟)则转为“高纬度-晚开花”, 发育期与纬度呈强正相关(r值为0.665~0.731), 表明光周期与热量的交互作用成为主导因素。(2) 时序演变上, 呈现“前迟后早”与“前缩后延”的协同模式: 营养生长阶段超过半数站点(50%~58%)推迟, 而生殖生长阶段普遍提前(64%~88%), 其中, 88%站点的开花期显著提前; 发育期长度表现为播种至开花阶段缩短(56%~68%站点), 而开花后阶段延长(绿熟至成熟期78%站点延长), 导致全生育期(播种—成熟)在64%的站点整体缩短。(3) 该发育期演变模式与气候变化背景下秋季增温趋缓、春季增温加速的季节非对称性特征密切相关。本研究为理解油菜发育期的地理适应机制提供了新见解, 并对制定气候变暖背景下的区域油菜适应性生产策略具有重要指导意义。

关键词: 油菜, 发育期, 时空变化, 核密度估计, 气候变化, 地理因子

Abstract:

To elucidate the response mechanisms of rapeseed phenological stages to geographical environments and climate change in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Plain, this study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of key phenological stages and their durations using observational data from 50 meteorological stations spanning 1981 to 2024. Methods employed included kernel density estimation, linear trend analysis, and correlation analysis. The results revealed that: (1) Spatially, the relationship between rapeseed phenology and geographical factors exhibited a distinct stage-dependent shift. During the vegetative growth stage (sowing to five-leaf), phenological timing advanced with increasing latitude (“high-latitude & early-sowing”), showing significant negative correlations with latitude (r = -0.200 to -0.285), primarily reflecting agronomic strategies to avoid winter frost. In contrast, during the reproductive growth stage (flowering to maturity), the pattern reversed to “high-latitude & late-flowering,” with strong positive correlations with latitude (r = 0.665 to 0.731), suggesting that photoperiod and accumulated heat became dominant controlling factors. (2) Temporally, a coordinated pattern of “delayed early stages but advanced later stages” and “shortened initial phases but prolonged subsequent phases” was observed. From 1981 to 2024, over half of the sites (50%-58%) exhibited delays in vegetative stages, while reproductive stages tended to advance (64%-88%), with significantly earlier flowering observed at 88% of the stations. Phase duration shortened from sowing to flowering at 56%-68% of the sites, but lengthened after flowering—especially from green-ripening to maturity—at 78% of the sites, resulting in an overall shortened growth cycle at 64% of locations. (3) This phenological evolution is closely linked to the seasonal asymmetry of climate change in the region, characterized by slower autumn warming and more rapid spring warming. These findings offer new insights into the geographical adaptation mechanisms of rapeseed phenology and provide valuable guidance for developing region-specific adaptive strategies for rapeseed production under global climate change.

Key words: rapeseed, phenological period, spatiotemporal variation, kernel density estimation, climate change, geographical factors

图1

长江中下游平原油菜发育期观测站点空间分布图 该图基于中华人民共和国标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS (2021) 6375号的标准地图制作, 底图边界无修改。"

图2

油菜发育期DOY核密度估计图 A-F依次为江苏、浙江、安徽、江西、湖南、湖北6省的DOY核密度估计图。SO: 播种; EM: 出苗; FV: 五真叶; BF: 现蕾; SE: 抽薹; FL: 开花; GR: 绿熟; MA: 成熟。"

图3

6省油菜发育期DOY平均值雷达图 缩写同图2。"

图4

油菜发育期日序数时空变化趋势 该图基于中华人民共和国标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS (2021) 6375号的标准地图制作, 底图边界无修改。缩写同图2。图中圆点表示观测站点发育期的10年尺度变化速率(k×10, 单位: d 10a-1)。红点代表正值(发育期推迟), 蓝点代表负值(发育期提前); 圆点大小表示变化速率绝对值的相对大小。面状渐变色为空间插值结果, 表征变化速率在研究区内的空间分布。"

图5

油菜发育期长度时空变化趋势 该图基于中华人民共和国标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS (2021) 6375号的标准地图制作, 底图边界无修改。缩写同图2。图中圆点表示观测站点发育期长度的10年尺度变化速率(k×10, 单位: d 10a-1)。红点代表正值(长度延长), 蓝点代表负值(长度缩短); 圆点大小表示变化速率绝对值的相对大小。面状渐变色为空间插值结果, 表征变化速率在研究区内的空间分布。"

表1

油菜发育期与经纬度、海拔高度的相关系数"

地理因子
Geographical factor		 播种
SO		 出苗
EM		 五真叶
FV		 现蕾
BF		 抽薹
SE		 开花
FL		 绿熟
GR		 成熟
MA
经度Longitude 0.105* 0.108* 0.112* -0.460* -0.302* 0.344* 0.344* 0.325*
纬度Latitude -0.285* -0.255* -0.200* -0.595* -0.449* 0.665* 0.678* 0.731*
海拔Altitude 0.322* 0.300* 0.262* 0.401* 0.430* -0.348* -0.373* -0.415*

表2

油菜发育期长度与经纬度、海拔高度的相关系数"

地理因子
Geographical factor		 播种-五真叶
SO-FV		 五真叶-现蕾
FV-BF		 现蕾-开花
BF-FL		 开花-绿熟
FL-GR		 绿熟-成熟
GR-MA		 播种-成熟
SO-MA
经度Longitude 0.097* 0.181* -0.263* 0.049 -0.161* 0.066*
纬度Latitude -0.029 0.527* -0.119* 0.013 -0.179* 0.543*
海拔Altitude 0.112* -0.358* -0.051 -0.074* 0.126* -0.426*
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