长江下游冬油菜区应对气候变化的育种和栽培策略研究

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2026.55056

Abstract

Abstract:

Climate change has a significant impact on rapeseed production, making it essential to clarify breeding and management strategies under evolving climatic conditions to ensure production stability. To systematically investigate the relationships between meteorological factors and yield, oil yield, and resistance-related traits, multi-year and multi-location national trial data from major production areas in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 2009-2023 were analyzed using a mixed linear model (MLM), linear regression, and canonical correlation analysis. Results showed a significant increase in mean temperature during the rapeseed growing season in this region, accompanied by greater temperature fluctuations and increased precipitation variability. Overall, the rise in mean temperature was beneficial for improving yield and oil production; however, extreme weather events substantially weakened this positive effect, and low temperatures in November had a particularly negative impact on yield. Canonical correlation analysis revealed two dominant meteorology-trait coupling patterns: Type 1 (humid late autumn-moderately cool early spring-moderately warm late spring), which supported safe overwintering, strong regrowth, and effective disease control, thereby significantly boosting yield but potentially reducing oil content; and Type 2 (cold spring), which was associated with suppressed yield and structural traits, as well as increased disease risk. It is recommended to enhance monitoring and early warning systems for extreme weather, especially low temperatures in November, and to adopt targeted management strategies. Under different climatic scenarios, differentiated field practices and a “dual-target” breeding strategy should be implemented: in warm and moist favorable years, optimize planting density and nutrient management to enhance oil content and thousand-seed weight; in cold spring years, apply timely control measures for Sclerotinia sclerotiorum rot and reinforce nutrient supply during the flowering to maturity stages. Breeding efforts should focus simultaneously on developing high-yield, disease-resistant genotypes and high-oil, high-thousand-seed-weight genotypes to enhance adaptability under complex climate conditions. A multidimensional meteorology-trait-yield early warning system should be established, integrating historical climate patterns with future projections to enable dynamic optimization of cultivar selection and field management.

Key words: rapeseed, climatic factors, canonical correlation analysis, mixed linear model, yield, oil content, Sclerotinia disease

Yang Rui, Chen Jing-Dong, Huang Ying, Zhang Xue-Kun, Zhou Deng-Wen, Liu Qing-Yun, Xu Jin-Song, Xie Ling-Li, Xu Ben-Bo. Study on breeding and cultivation strategies for winter rapeseed to cope with climate change in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2026, 52(4): 1153-1165.

Figures/Tables 8

Table 1

Table 2

Correlation analysis between monthly meteorological factors and yield and quality traits of winter rapeseed during the growth period"

月份与气象因子 Month and climatic factors	菌核病病指 Sclerotium index	单株角果数 Silique number per plant	株高 Plant height	每角粒数 Seed number per silique
11月最高气温Max. temp. in Nov.	-0.22	0.10	-0.42	0.02
11月最低气温Min. temp. in Nov.	0.16	0.30	0.29	-0.12
11月平均气温日较差DTD in Nov.	-0.30	-0.07	0.03	0.22
11月降水量Precipitation in Nov.	0.19	0.03	-0.07	-0.20
11月日照时数Sunshine duration in Nov.	-0.38	-0.17	0.04	0.28
12月降水量Precipitation in Dec.	0.55^*	0.15	0.29	-0.01
12月日照时数Sunshine duration in Dec.	-0.55^*	-0.34	-0.03	0.10
1月平均气温Mean temp. in Jan.	0.30	0.59^*	-0.19	-0.70^**
1月最低气温Min. temp. in Jan.	0.21	0.29	0.23	-0.36
2月平均气温Mean temp. in Feb.	-0.21	0.34	-0.20	-0.26
2月最高气温Max. temp. in Feb.	-0.28	0.25	-0.31	-0.27
2月最低气温Min. temp. in Feb.	0.07	0.46	-0.33	-0.45
3月平均气温Mean temp. in Mar.	0.26	0.66^**	-0.33	-0.44
3月最低气温Min. temp. in Mar.	0.15	0.60^*	-0.29	-0.48
4月平均气温Mean temp. in Apr.	0.31	0.11	-0.10	-0.12
月份与气象因子 Month and climatic factors	千粒重 Thousand seeds weight	全生育期 Whole growth period	含油量 Oil content	产量 Yield	产油量 Oil yield
11月最高气温Max. temp. in Nov.	0.53^*	-0.20	-0.20	-0.20	-0.39
11月最低气温Min. temp. in Nov.	-0.05	-0.14	0.02	0.52^*	0.41
11月平均气温日较差DTD in Nov.	0.23	-0.43	-0.56^*	0.47	0.23
11月降水量Precipitation in Nov.	-0.13	0.52^*	0.43	-0.45	-0.26
11月日照时数Sunshine duration in Nov.	0.16	-0.31	-0.53^*	0.43	0.26
12月降水量Precipitation in Dec.	-0.30	0.31	0.31	-0.03	-0.05
12月日照时数Sunshine duration in Dec.	0.08	-0.12	-0.40	0.05	0.14
1月平均气温Mean temp. in Jan.	0.54^*	-0.17	0.04	0.38	0.23
1月最低气温Min. temp. in Jan.	0.14	0.28	-0.22	0.53^*	0.48
2月平均气温Mean temp. in Feb.	0.48	-0.10	0.53^*	0.01	0.08
2月最高气温Max. temp. in Feb.	0.59^*	-0.30	0.13	0.09	0.05
2月最低气温Min. temp. in Feb.	0.57^*	-0.03	-0.11	0.39	0.19
3月平均气温Mean temp. in Mar.	0.51	-0.76^**	0.09	0.52^*	0.16
3月最低气温Min. temp. in Mar.	0.39	-0.59^*	0.08	0.45	0.21
4月平均气温Mean temp. in Apr.	0.02	-0.58^*	-0.13	0.09	-0.12

Table 2

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Table 3

Fig. 5

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品系 Line	产量 Yield	株高 Plant height	单株角果数 Silique number per plant	每角粒数 Seed number per silique	千粒重 Thousand seeds weight		全生育期 Whole growth period
沣油737 Fengyou 737	224.18	-11.74	12.99	-1.04	0.106		-3.91
秦优10号 Qinyou 10	15.22	11.66	-34.88	0.28	0.005		-1.53
秦优7号 Qinyou 7	-104.12	8.04	-51.42	1.79	0.036		0.13
越优1203 Yueyou 1203	508.78	1.67	8.52	0.10	0.284		-0.11
品系 Line	含油量 Oil content	菌核病指数 Sclerotium index	选育单位 Breeding institution			作为对照品系年度 Years served as a control line
沣油737 Fengyou 737	1.02	1.41	湖南省作物研究所 Crop Research Institute of Hunan province			2018, 2020-2022
秦优10号 Qinyou 10	1.76	1.07	咸阳市农业科学研究所 Xianyang Institute of Agricultural Sciences			2011-2019
秦优7号 Qinyou 7	1.93	-2.63	陕西杂交油菜研究中心 Hybrid Rapeseed Research Center of Shaanxi province			2009-2011
越优1203 Yueyou 1203	-0.02	-0.98	浙江省农业科学院 Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences			2022-2023

气象因子 Factor	偏高或偏低 Above or below	年份 Year	月份 Month	气象因子 Factor	偏高或偏低 Above or below	年份 Year	月份 Month
最低气温 Min. temp.	偏高Above	2010	11	平均气温Mean temp.	偏高Above	2020	2
	偏高Above	2011	11	平均气温Mean temp.	偏高Above	2010	1
	偏高Above	2012	11	最高气温Max. temp.	偏高Above	2010	1
	偏高Above	2014	11	降水量Precipitation	偏高Above	2013	10
	偏高Above	2017	11		偏高Above	2016	10
	偏高Above	2018	11		偏高Above	2009	11
	偏高Above	2019	11		偏高Above	2015	11
	偏高Above	2020	11		偏高Above	2012	12
	偏高Above	2021	11		偏高Above	2018	12
	偏高Above	2018	1		偏高Above	2015	1
	偏高Above	2019	1		偏高Above	2017	1
	偏高Above	2019	2		偏高Above	2019	1
	偏高Above	2016	3		偏高Above	2013	2
	偏高Above	2018	3		偏高Above	2018	2
	偏高Above	2019	3		偏高Above	2023	2
	偏高Above	2020	3		偏高Above	2009	3
最低气温 Min. temp.	偏高Above	2021	3	降水量Precipitation	偏高Above	2021	3
	偏高Above	2022	3		偏高Above	2015	4
	偏高Above	2011	4		偏高Above	2023	4
	偏高Above	2015	4		偏低Below	2009	10
	偏低Below	2009	11		偏低Below	2018	10
	偏低Below	2013	11		偏低Below	2019	10
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Study on breeding and cultivation strategies for winter rapeseed to cope with climate change in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River

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