近35年湖北省低丘平原区玉米需水量及旱涝时空变化

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何俊欧, 凌霄霞, 张建设, 张萌, 马迪, 孙梦, 刘永忠, 展茗, 赵明. . 近35年湖北省低丘平原区玉米需水量及旱涝时空变化. 作物学报, 2017, 43(10): 1536-1547
HE Jun-Ou, LING Xiao-Xia, ZHANG Jian-She, ZHANG Meng, MA Di, SUN Meng, LIU Yong-Zhong, ZHAN Ming, ZHAO Ming. . Temporal-spatial Variation of Crop Water Requirement and Frequency of Drought and Waterlogging Disasters during Maize Growth Stages in Low Hilly Plain Area of Hubei Province in Last 35 Years. ACTA AGRONOMICA SINICA, 2017, 43(10): 1536-1547 复制到剪切板

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作物学报编辑部

近35年湖北省低丘平原区玉米需水量及旱涝时空变化

何俊欧¹, 凌霄霞¹, 张建设³, 张萌¹, 马迪^1,², 孙梦¹, 刘永忠¹, 展茗^1,^*, 赵明^2,^*

¹ 华中农业大学植物科学技术学院 / 农业部长江中游作物生理生态与耕作重点实验室, 湖北武汉 430070

²中国农业科学院作物科学研究所 / 农业部作物生理生态重点实验室, 北京 100081

³湖北省农业技术推广总站, 湖北武汉 430070

^* 通讯作者(Corresponding authors): 展茗, E-mail: zhanming@mail.hzau.edu.cn; 赵明, E-mail: zhaomingcau@163.net

第一作者联系方式: E-mail: 357783403@qq.com

收稿日期:2016-10-24 接受日期:2017-04-19 网络出版日期:2017-05-23

基金:本研究由国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0300308)和中央高校基本科研业务费专项项目(2662015PY067)资助

摘要

利用湖北省低丘平原区8个长期基准气象台站35年(1980—2014)气象资料, 对湖北省不同区域春玉米、夏玉米及秋玉米的需水量、旱涝发生频率及其年际变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明玉米各生育阶段需水量区域间差异较小, 而不同种植季玉米间差异较大。秋玉米需水量显著低于春玉米和夏玉米, 春玉米需水量与夏玉米相近, 且三季玉米的需水量随年份呈显著下降趋势, 尤其是以鄂中地区需水量下降最多, 平均达 -18.62 mm (10a)^-1。鄂北、鄂中及鄂东南区域三季玉米播种-拔节阶段均以发生涝灾为主, 其中重涝发生频率较高; 鄂北及鄂中地区三季玉米拔节-完熟期主要以发生轻度干旱为主, 尤其是灌浆期间旱灾发生频率较高; 在鄂东南春玉米与夏玉米拔节-吐丝期间涝灾发生频率要高于旱灾, 灌浆期间三季玉米均以旱灾较多, 尤其是夏玉米与秋玉米旱灾要重于春玉米。各地区三季玉米不同生育时期旱涝年际变化趋势不显著。从降低旱涝胁迫风险考虑, 建议鄂北地区主要发展夏玉米、鄂中及鄂东南地区主要发展春玉米, 适当控制秋玉米面积; 三季玉米拔节前均要注意防涝, 拔节后注意防旱。

关键词: 玉米; 需水量; 水分盈亏指数; 旱涝频率; 年际变化趋势

Temporal-spatial Variation of Crop Water Requirement and Frequency of Drought and Waterlogging Disasters during Maize Growth Stages in Low Hilly Plain Area of Hubei Province in Last 35 Years

HE Jun-Ou¹, LING Xiao-Xia¹, ZHANG Jian-She³, ZHANG Meng¹, MA Di^1,², SUN Meng¹, LIU Yong-Zhong¹, ZHAN Ming^1,^*, ZHAO Ming^2,^*

¹ Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, Ministry of Agriculture / College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China

²Institute of Crop Science, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences / Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology and Ecology of Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China

³Agricultural Technology Extension Station of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430070, China

Fund:This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFD0300308) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2662015PY067).

Abstract

Based on 35-year (1980-2014) meteorological data from eight benchmark long-term meteorological stations in low hilly plain area of Hubei province, we analyzed the temporal-spatial variation in water requirement and frequency of drought and waterlogging disasters in different growing stages of spring, summer and autumn maize in northern, central and southeastern regions of Hubei province. The water requirement at each growth stage of a certain maize season was similar among the three regions, but much different among maize seasons. The water requirement was obviously lower in autumn maize than in spring and summer maize, and similar between spring maize and summer maize. Maize water requirement in three production regions showed a significant downward trend in the process of year by year, especially in the area of central region, with a climate tendency rate of -18.62 mm (10a)^-1. The maize in three planting seasons could easily encounter waterlogging during the period from sowing to jointing in each production region, with a higher occurrence frequency of heavy waterlogging. Light drought mainly occurred during the period from jointing to maturity in maize in three planting seasons in northern and central Hubei, whereas heavy drought occurred during maize grain filling period. In the region of southeastern Hubei, waterlogging occurrence frequency was higher than that of drought from jointing to silking in spring and summer maize. However, drought easily came up during grain filling period of maize in three planting seasons, especially summer maize and autumn maize met more frequent drought than spring maize in this period. The interannual variation of drought and waterlogging at different maize growth stages of three planting seasons in each region was not significant. Considering the mitigation in drought and waterlogging impact, it is recommended to preferentially develop summer maize in northern region, and spring maize in central and southeastern regions of Hubei province. Meanwhile, our study suggests that in production we should prevent waterlogging before maize jointing and drought after maize jointing in low hilly plain area of Hubei province.

Keyword: Maize; Water requirement; Crop water surplus deficit index; Drought and waterlogging frequency; Interannual variation tendency

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作物需水量通常指在适宜的土壤水分和肥力水平下, 作物经过正常生长发育, 获得高产时的植株蒸腾、棵间蒸发以及构成植株体的水量之和。而在实际计算中一般认为作物需水量在数量上等于高产水平下的植株蒸腾量与棵间蒸发量之和^{[1, 2]}。作物需水量的估算和预测是评价作物水分利用及水分胁迫程度的基础^[3], 对于制定合理的节水灌溉制度, 研究区域农业水资源的供需平衡关系, 对于气候变化响应及应对措施的决策有重要意义^{[4, 5]}。国内外对作物需水量的估算方法较多^[6], 如FAO-56双作物系数法^[7]、双涌源能量守恒模型^[8]、神经网络技术估算法^[9]等。目前认为比较精确且应用最多的是FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith法^[7], 在我国得到了验证^[10]及广泛应用^{[3, 4, 11, 12]}。农业旱涝主要由降水异常引起的, 作物受旱涝的程度主要受其需水量与土壤供水量平衡的影响。目前在农业旱涝研究上通常用两类指标来反映其发生程度与规律, 第一类是降水量指标, 如降水距平百分率^[13]、标准化降水指数^[14]、Z指数^[15]等, 这类指标能够反映水分供应的情况; 第二类指标如综合气象干旱指数CI ^[16]、相对湿润度指数^[17]、作物水分盈亏指数^[3]等, 能够反映水分供需的变化。其中作物水分盈亏指数(CWSDI)是最常用的作物旱涝诊断指标之一^{[12, 18]}, 能够较好地反映土壤、植物和气象三方面因素对作物的综合影响, 比较真实地反映出作物水分亏缺状况^[19]。

湖北省地处长江中游, 光、热、水资源丰富, 属于一年两熟和三熟的多熟制区域, 80%的土地面积为玉米适宜种植区^{[20, 21]}, 可种植春玉米、夏玉米和秋玉米。春玉米生长季多为3月至8月, 夏玉米多为5月至10月, 秋玉米多为7月至11月上旬。作为重要的饲料用粮, 湖北玉米产需缺口较大, 玉米种植效益较高, 加之湖北省种植业结构的调整, 拉动了近年来湖北玉米的快速发展^[20]]。2014年湖北玉米种植面积为64.2万公顷, 总产为293万吨, 分别比2003年增加了47.0%和42.8%^[22], 其发展速度超过了第一大作物的水稻与第二大作物小麦。湖北玉米生产对促进当地畜牧业的可持续发展及种植业合理调整均有重要的意义。虽然湖北省降水资源丰富, 但年内及年际间分配不均, 且变率大, 需水关键期往往与降水多的时段不重合, 常导致渍涝、干旱发生, 对产量影响较大^[23]。目前针对北方玉米主产区旱涝灾害时空变化规律及其对玉米生产影响的研究较多^{[3, 12, 19]}, 但针对长江中游低丘平原区不同种植季玉米需水规律及旱涝灾害的研究却较少。本研究将利用湖北低丘平原区1980— 2014年8个地面气象台站的逐日气象资料, 分析不同种植季玉米需水量的时空变化特点及年际变化趋势, 并结合玉米不同生育期内有效降水量分析玉米水分盈缺指数, 评价旱涝发生规律, 为湖北省玉米生产的合理区域布局、防灾减灾、气候变化响应等提供基础数据与决策依据。

1 材料与方法

1.1 研究区域与气象数据来源

选取湖北省低丘平原区有完整35年历史气象资料的8个基准气象台站1980— 2014年观测的气象资料, 包括鄂北的老河口、枣阳; 鄂中的荆州、钟祥、天门; 鄂东南的英山、黄石、嘉鱼等。各站点的地理位置、经度、纬度及海拔高度见图1。鄂西南及鄂西北为海拔500 m以上的山地春玉米区, 不列为本文研究区域。气象资料包括平均本站气压、日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、降水量、日照时数、平均水汽压、相对湿度、平均风速等。上述气象资料来自中国气象局国家气象信息中心(http://data. cma.cn/)。

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	图1 研究区气象站点的分布(经度° E, 纬度° N, 海拔高度m) Laohekou: 老河口; Zaoyang: 枣阳; Zhongxiang: 钟祥; Tianmen: 天门; Jingzhou: 荆州; Jiayu: 嘉鱼; Huangshi: 黄石; Yingshan: 英山。Fig 1 Distribution of meteorological stations (Longitude° E, Latitude° N, Altitude m) in the studied area

1.2 研究方法

1.2.1 玉米生育阶段的确定湖北省玉米按播种时间可分为春玉米、夏玉米和秋玉米^[24]。根据当地的生产习惯, 鄂东南春玉米的播种期定为3月15日和3月25日; 鄂中春玉米的播种期定为3月20日和3月30日; 鄂北春玉米的播种期定为3月25日和4月5日。各区域油后夏玉米的播种时间一般为5月20日左右, 麦后夏玉米的播种时间一般为6月5日左右。本文选定5月20日和6月5日作为夏玉米的播种期; 各区域秋玉米一般为7月20日播种。温度是影响作物生长发育进程的重要环境因子, 作物完成某个生育阶段需要一定的积温, 因此积温被用于推断作物各个生育时期出现的一种常见指标^[25]。本文以湖北省推广的早中熟玉米品种郑单958为例, 根据作者2012年和2013年在湖北省东南及中部区域开展的分期播种试验, 获得其各生育阶段需要的≥ 10℃有效积温(表1)。根据播种期和阶段积温来推算各区域气象台站1980— 2014年玉米拔节、吐丝、乳熟、完熟等出现的日期。

表1 郑单958各个生育阶段≥ 10℃有效积温 Table 1 Effective accumulated temperature (≥ 10℃) for different developmental stages of Zhengdan 958 (° C d)

1.2.2 玉米需水量采用联合国粮农组织(FAO)推荐的方法^[7]计算玉米需水量(ET_c)。

ET_c = K_c × ET₀

式中, ET_c为作物需水量(mm d^-1); ET₀为参考作物日蒸散量(mm d^-1), 利用FAO (1998)修订的Penman-Monteith公式计算研究区域各站点参考作物蒸散量(ET₀)^[7]。K_c为作物系数, 采用1998年FAO推荐的分段单值平均法计算^[3]。根据该方法, 把玉米全生育期作物系数变化过程概化为在4个阶段的3个值(K_{c ini}, K_{c mid}, K_{c end}), 如图2所示, K_{c ini} = 0.3, K_{c mid} = 1.2, K_{c end} = 0.5。

K_c_i= K_{c prev}+ [(i - ∑ (L_prev) / L_stage] × (K_{c next}- K_{c prev})

式中, K_c_i为第i天的作物系数; i为整个生育期间隔的天数之日序数; L为生育期间隔天数; K_{c prev}为i天之前生育期的作物系数; K_{c next}为i天之后生育期的作物系数; L_stage为i天所处生育期间隔日数; ∑ (L_prev)为i天之前的所有生育期间隔日数的总和。

1.2.3 水分盈亏指数及旱涝等级的确定在农业气象研究领域, 为了准确反映玉米各生育阶段的需水特性及水分供应状况, 通常基于作物水分亏缺指数构建玉米生育阶段水分盈亏指数CWSDI (crop water surplus deficit index)表征水分盈亏程度^[3]。

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	图2 玉米全生育期作物系数变化Fig. 2 Changes of crop coefficient during the whole growth period of maize

CWSDI_i = (P_ei- ET_c_i)/ET_c_i × 100

式中, CWSDI_i为第i生育阶段水分盈亏指数(%); P_e_i为第i生育阶段有效降水量(mm); ET_c_i为第i生育阶段的作物需水量(mm)。当CWSDI_i> 0时第i生育阶段水分盈余; 当CWSDI_i = 0时水分收支平衡; 当CWSDI_i < 0时水分亏缺。水分盈亏指数包含了降水量和作物需水量两项因子, 能反映实际供水量与作物最大水分需要量的平衡关系, 可以较好地表征作物旱涝状况。

对于旱作物, 有效降雨量指总降雨量中能够保存在作物根系层中用于满足作物蒸发蒸腾需要的那部分雨量, 不包括地表径流和渗漏至作物根系吸水层以下的部分。国内外对有效降水量的估算方法较多^[26]。本文采用国内常用的经验公式法, 该方法计算简便, 被国内的一些学者采用^[27]。

P_e_i= α _j∙ P_i

式中, P_e_i为i日有效降水量(mm); P_i为i日降水量(mm); α _j为有效利用系数。一般情况下, 当P_i ≤ 5 mm时α _j = 0; 当5 mm < P_i ≤ 50 mm时α _j = 0.9; 当P_i > 50 mm时α _j = 0.75。

参考高晓容等^[3]旱涝等级划分标准, 确定玉米各生育阶段标准为重涝CWSDI > 85%, 轻涝45% < CWSDI ≤ 85%, 正常-45% < CWSDI ≤ 45%, 轻旱-85% < CWSDI ≤ -45%, 重旱CWSDI ≤ -85%。统计不同区域气象台站各年份旱涝等级的发生频率。

1.2.4 趋势检验玉米需水量、水分盈亏指数、气温、降水、风速、湿度等年际变化趋势, 可用气候趋势系数和气候倾向率反映^{[28, 29]}。气候趋势系数(r_xt)为n个时刻(年)所对应的要素序列与自然数列1, 2, …, n的相关系数。

式中, n为年数; x_i为第i年要素值; 为样本均值; = (n + 1)/2。通常使用t检验法检验气候趋势是否显著。如果n个时刻所对应的要素序列与自然数列显著相关, 表示该要素气候趋势存在明显增加(减少)趋势。

将玉米需水量或气象要素(x)的长期变化趋势采用线性回归方程分析。

= a₀+a₁t, a₁= d ₁/dt

式中, t为年份序列号(t = 1, 2, …, n); a₀为常数; a₁为回归系数, 当a₁为正或负时要素在计算时段内线性增加或减弱。10a₁称为气候倾向率(T_r), 表示要素每10年的变化率, 其中正值表示要素呈增加趋势, 负值呈减少趋势。

2 结果与分析

2.1 不同种植季玉米需水量的时空变化及其影响因子分析

湖北省玉米的需水量约为300~440 mm, 不同种植季玉米各生育阶段需水量差别较大(表2)。对同一季玉米而言, 玉米全生育期需水量及各生育阶段需水量区域间差异不显著; 就同一区域而言, 不同种植季玉米各个生育阶段需水量差异较明显(P < 0.05)。播种-拔节期间, 鄂北、鄂中及鄂东南等3个种植区域均表现出春玉米需水量显著高于夏玉米与秋玉米, 在鄂中及鄂东南区域秋玉米该阶段需水量又显著高于夏玉米。在拔节-吐丝阶段春玉米需水量与夏玉米相当, 均显著高于秋玉米。在吐丝-乳熟阶段, 以夏玉米的需水量最高, 秋玉米的需水量显著低于春玉米与夏玉米。在乳熟-完熟阶段, 鄂北地区三季玉米需水量差异不明显, 而鄂中和鄂东南地区春玉米和夏玉米的需水量相当, 但均明显多于秋玉米。从整个生育期看, 3个区域均表现出秋玉米需水量显著低于春玉米和夏玉米, 而春玉米需水量与夏玉米差异不显著。

由表2可知, 玉米不同生育阶段需水量年际间普遍呈下降趋势, 不同生育阶段及区域间有差异。在鄂北地区, 三季玉米全生育期的需水量随年份均呈显著下降趋势, 尤以秋玉米下降最快, 其总需水量的下降主要发生在吐丝后, 吐丝前没有显著变化; 春玉米除吐丝-乳熟阶段需水量没有变化外, 其余生育阶段的需水量均呈显著下降趋势, 程度相当; 而该区域夏玉米各个生育阶段的需水量均显著下降, 以吐丝-乳熟阶段下降最快。在鄂中地区, 三季玉米的需水量均随年份呈显著下降趋势, 下降程度与鄂北地区相当, 其中春玉米与夏玉米各个生育阶段均呈显著下降趋势, 均以吐丝-乳熟阶段下降最快; 而秋玉米除拔节-吐丝阶段外, 其余生育阶段的需水量均随年份显著下降。在鄂东南区, 春玉米与夏玉米的总需水量没有出现年际间下降趋势; 而秋玉米下降趋势明显, 其下降程度明显低于鄂北及鄂中地区, 主要在拔节-吐丝及乳熟-完熟阶段下降明显。在鄂东南区, 春玉米播种-拔节、夏玉米乳熟-完熟阶段的需水量也有显著下降, 但总需水量没有变化。

表2 35年来不同种植季玉米各生育阶段的平均需水量(WR, mm)及其气候倾向率[T_r, mm (10a)^-1] Table 2 Water requirement (WR, mm) and climate tendency rate [T_r, mm (10a)^-1] at each growth stage of maize planted in different seasons during 35 years

种植季 Planting season		播种-拔节SJ		拔节-吐丝JS		吐丝-乳熟SM		乳熟-完熟MM		全生育期WP
种植季 Planting season		需水量 WR	倾向率 T_r	需水量 WR	倾向率 T_r	需水量 WR	倾向率 T_r	需水量 WR	倾向率 T_r	需水量 WR	倾向率 T_r
鄂北 Northern Hubei	春玉米 Spring maize	50.6± 6.0 a	-4.22^*	105.0± 7.7 a	-3.17^*	176.8± 10.0 bc	-3.15^ns	103.6± 10.3 a	-4.26^*	436.1± 22.8 a	-14.81^*
	夏玉米 Summer maize	33.9± 2.4 c	-1.46^*	102.8± 8.0 a	-3.92^*	183.9± 17.1 ab	-6.47^*	94.3± 6.4 a	-2.73^*	414.9± 27.5 a	-14.59^*
	秋玉米 Autumn maize	37.0± 3.5 bc	-1.12^ns	71.7± 7.6 b	-2.42^ns	117.6± 9.2 d	-5.76^*	92.5± 21.3 a	-12.11^*	318.8± 29.8 b	-21.41^*
鄂中 Central Hubei	春玉米 Spring maize	47.1± 5.3 a	-3.54^*	99.7± 8.2 a	-3.50^*	170.0± 12.1 c	-6.28^*	105.9± 10.5 a	-5.19^*	422.8± 26.8 a	-18.52^*
	夏玉米 Summer maize	32.0± 2.7 c	-1.72^*	103.6± 9.2 a	-4.35^*	193.6± 16.5 a	-6.08^*	96.3± 7.0 a	-3.02^*	425.6± 27.8 a	-15.18^*
	秋玉米 Autumn maize	39.0± 3.7 b	-1.28^*	74.2± 7.1 b	-2.00^ns	116.1± 10.1 d	-7.63^*	74.0± 16.6 b	-11.23^*	303.3± 28.2 b	-22.15^*
鄂东南 Southeastern Hubei	春玉米 Spring maize	45.6± 4.4 a	-2.19^*	100.2± 7.4 a	-0.66^ns	173.1± 10.2 bc	0.16^ns	106.3± 9.9 a	-1.32^ns	425.2± 19.8 a	-4.01^ns
	夏玉米 Summer m	32.5± 2.2 c	-0.37^ns	104.6± 8.6 a	-0.95^ns	194.5± 13.3 a	-0.89^ns	95.7± 6.9 a	-2.57^*	427.3± 22.8 a	-4.77^ns
	秋玉米 Autumn maize	39.4± 2.9 b	0.05^ns	73.7± 6.7 b	-2.35^*	115.6± 7.6 d	-2.97^*	67.8± 10.2 b	-4.50^*	296.5± 18.5 b	-9.77^*

Data are shown in mean± SD of three replicates. In each column, values followed by different letters are significantly different among treatments at P < 0.05. SJ: Sowing to Jointing; JS: Jointing to Silking; SM: Silking to Milking; MM: Milking to Maturity; WP: whole growth period; WR: water requirement; T_r: climate tendency rate [mm (10a)^-1]. ^* and ^{* *} indicate significance at P< 0.05 and P < 0.01, respectively. ns: no significance.

数据为3次重复的平均值± 标准差。同一列内数据后不同字母表示处理间有显著差异(P< 0.05)。SJ: 播种-拔节; JS: 拔节-吐丝; SM: 吐丝-乳熟; MM: 乳熟-完熟; WP: 全生育期; WR: 需水量; T_r: 气候倾向率[mm (10a)^-1]。^*和^{* *}分别表示在P < 0.05和P < 0.01水平上差异显著, ns表示不显著。

相关分析表明, 气温、降水、风速及相对湿度均对玉米需水量有显著影响(表3)。气温对玉米需水量的影响表现出不同种植季及生育阶段的差异性。春玉米播种-拔节阶段需水量与气温呈极显著负相关, 而乳熟-完熟阶段则呈显著正相关; 夏玉米播种-拔节阶段需水量与气温呈极显著负相关, 而拔节-乳熟阶段则呈显著正相关; 秋玉米吐丝前的需水量与气温呈显著正相关, 而吐丝后则呈极显著负相关。降水对玉米需水量的影响也表现出季节差异。春玉米乳熟后、夏玉米拔节后及秋玉米拔节前需水量均与降水呈显著负相关, 而秋玉米乳熟后的需水量则与降水显著正相关。风速与玉米需水量表现出较一致的正相关, 尤其是夏玉米整个生育阶段的需水量均与风速显著正相关, 春玉米与秋玉米主要是在苗期与乳熟后受风速影响显著。相对湿度则与春玉米乳熟后、夏玉米拔节后、秋玉米拔节前的需水量显著负相关。

表3 玉米需水量与气象因子的相关系数 Table 3 Correlation coefficients between maize water requirement and meteorological factors

从表4看出玉米各生育阶段四类气象要素表现出不同的年际变化趋势。气温的年际趋势普遍上升, 鄂北、鄂中春玉米拔节前及吐丝-乳熟阶段、夏玉米吐丝前及乳熟-完熟阶段, 秋玉米吐丝后等阶段气温升高趋势显著; 而在鄂东南区, 主要是春玉米拔节前及秋玉米吐丝后趋势明显。除鄂东南春玉米拔节前及秋玉米乳熟后降水有显著下降趋势外, 其他生育阶段及鄂中、鄂北地区均没有明显的变化趋势。风速普遍呈下降趋势, 有显著下降趋势的区域及时期包括鄂北秋玉米乳熟-完熟阶段, 鄂中的春玉米吐丝前、夏玉米拔节前及秋玉米拔节后, 鄂东南春玉米及夏玉米拔节前。相对湿度也呈普遍下降趋势, 下降趋势显著的区域及时期包括鄂北及鄂中的春玉米拔节前及吐丝后、鄂东南春玉米拔节前; 鄂北及鄂中的夏玉米; 鄂北秋玉米拔节前、鄂中秋玉米吐丝前及乳熟后、鄂东南秋玉米乳熟后。

表4 35年不同区域玉米各生育期气象要素的气候倾向率(T_r) Table 4 Climate tendency rate (T_r) of meteorological factors at each growth stage of maize during 35 years

2.2 不同区域玉米各生育期水分盈亏指数的变化

从表5看出, 春玉米播种— 拔节期间各生产区域CWSDI均大于0, 出现水分盈余, 且由鄂北向鄂东南水分的盈余增加; 在鄂北及鄂中地区春玉米拔节-乳熟期间CWSDI均小于0, 出现水分亏缺, 而在鄂东南地区该阶段表现为水分盈余。夏玉米播种至拔节期间3个地区均出现水分盈余; 夏玉米拔节-吐丝期间, 在鄂北地区水分亏缺, 而在鄂中及鄂东南区为水分盈余; 夏玉米吐丝-完熟期在3个地区均表现为水分亏缺。秋玉米播种-拔节时期3个地区CWSDI均大于0, 水分盈余较多; 而秋玉米拔节至完熟阶段, 三地区均表现为水分亏缺, 尤其是吐丝-乳熟期间水分亏缺较多。不同区域玉米各生育阶段水分盈亏指数年际变化趋势不尽相同, 但趋势差异均不显著。

表5 35年来不同区域玉米各生育期平均水分盈亏指数(CWSDI, %)及其气候倾向率[T_r, % (10a)^-1] Table 5 Crop water surplus deficit index (CWSDI) and climate tendency rate (T_r, % [10a]^-1) at each growth stage of maize in different regions during 35 years

2.3 不同区域玉米旱涝发生频率

从图3看出, 在鄂北地区, 春玉米播种-拔节阶段旱灾和涝灾发生频率基本相当, 分别为20.7%和21.5%; 春玉米拔节-完熟期间旱灾发生较多, 平均为49.3%, 以轻旱为主, 且吐丝-乳熟期间最易发生旱灾, 影响春玉米灌浆。该区域夏玉米播种-拔节阶段旱涝灾害发生频率达70.0%, 其中重涝发生频率占55.1%; 拔节-吐丝时期旱涝灾害发生频率为53.6%, 其中旱灾发生频率占67.9%; 吐丝-完熟时期旱灾发生频率平均为55.0%, 其中轻旱发生频率平均占81.6%。该区域秋玉米播种-拔节阶段主要发生涝灾, 其中重涝发生频率高达54.3%; 拔节-吐丝阶段旱涝灾害发生频率为65.7%, 其中旱灾发生频率占71.7%; 吐丝-完熟阶段主要以旱灾为主, 其中轻旱发生频率平均为50.0%。

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图3 不同区域种植季玉米各时期旱涝频率分布 HW: 重涝; LW: 轻涝; LD: 轻旱; HD: 重旱。其他缩写同表2。Fig. 3 Drought and waterlogging frequency distribution at each growth stage of maize planted in different seasons in different regions HW: heavy waterlogging; LW: light waterlogging; LD: light drought; HD: heavy drought. Other abbreviations are the same as those given in Table 2.

在鄂中地区, 春玉米播种-拔节阶段主要发生涝灾, 其中重涝发生频率为45.7%; 拔节-乳熟阶段旱涝灾害发生频率平均为43.6%, 其中轻旱发生频率平均占65.7%; 乳熟-完熟阶段旱涝灾害发生频率为61.4%, 其中旱灾以轻旱为主, 涝灾中重涝和轻涝发生频率相当。该区域夏玉米播种-拔节阶段主要发生涝灾, 其中重涝发生频率达61.0%; 拔节-吐丝阶段旱涝灾害发生频率为53.8%, 其中旱灾以轻旱为主, 涝灾以重涝为主; 吐丝-完熟阶段旱灾发生频率平均为53.8%, 其中轻旱发生频率平均占67.7%。

该区域秋玉米播种-拔节阶段涝灾发生频率为58.1%, 其中重涝发生频率占81.9%; 拔节-吐丝阶段旱灾发生频率为43.8%, 其中轻旱和重旱发生频率相当; 吐丝-完熟阶段旱灾发生频率平均为64.8%, 其中轻旱发生频率平均占65.4%。

在鄂东南地区, 春玉米播种-拔节阶段主要发生涝灾, 其中重涝发生频率高达74.3%; 拔节-吐丝阶段旱涝灾害发生频率为43.8%, 其中旱灾以轻旱程度为主, 涝灾以轻涝程度为主; 吐丝-完熟阶段旱涝灾害发生频率平均为46.2%, 其中旱灾以轻旱程度为主, 涝灾以重涝程度为主。该区域夏玉米播种-拔节阶段主要发生涝灾, 其中重涝发生频率高达78.1%; 拔节-吐丝阶段涝灾发生频率为44.7%, 其中重涝发生频率占74.5%; 吐丝-完熟阶段旱灾发生频率平均为50.0%, 其中轻旱发生频率平均占80.7%。该区域秋玉米播种-拔节期间涝灾发生频率为58.1%, 其中重涝发生频率占83.6%; 拔节-吐丝阶段旱涝灾害发生频率为59.0%, 其中旱灾发生频率占66.1%; 吐丝-乳熟阶段旱灾发生频率达70.5%, 其中轻旱发生频率占58.2%; 乳熟-完熟阶段旱灾发生频率为58.1%, 其中轻旱和重旱发生频率相差不大。

3 讨论

玉米需水量是玉米栽培管理、制定灌溉制度的依据, 在我国玉米主产区得到了较多的关注^{[3, 5, 30]}, 而对长江中游玉米需水量却鲜有研究报道。肖俊夫等^[30]研究发现春玉米的需水量高于夏玉米, 且区域间的变化较大, 变化在400~700 mm之间, 夏玉米需水量变化在350~400 mm。本研究表明湖北省的春玉米需水量约430 mm左右, 与黄淮海区春玉米需水量相当^[31], 但区域间变异较小。湖北省夏玉米的需水量与春玉米相当, 区域上的变异也较小, 要高于北方夏玉米需水量^{[30, 31]}。湖北省3个生产区域春玉米、夏玉米和秋玉米需水量最大的时期均为吐丝— 乳熟时期, 这与王宏等^[32]研究结果一致。湖北省各种植季玉米需水量具有明显的年际变化规律, 1980— 2014年间, 鄂中、鄂北三季玉米需水量随年份均呈显著下降趋势, 尤以秋玉米下降趋势最明显, 达22 mm (10a)^-1, 而鄂东南区域玉米需水量则没有显著的年际变化(表2)。也有研究表明黄淮海、华北地区、四川盆地玉米需水量近50年来存在显著的年际下降趋势^{[31, 33, 34]}。而东北地区玉米需水量在近50年内没有明显的年际变化^[3]。

玉米需水量的变化除与田间栽培管理措施有关外, 还与气候等环境因子的变化有关。郝振纯等^[35]研究表明长江流域中游区域潜在蒸散量呈下降趋势, 这也可能是导致该区域玉米需水量年际间显著下降的原因。有研究表明玉米需水量与气温正相关^{[31, 36]}, 而刘晓英等^[33]]研究认为气温对华北地区玉米需水量的变化没有显著影响。本研究表明湖北省春玉米乳熟-完熟、夏玉米拔节-乳熟及秋玉米播种至吐丝阶段需水量与气温正相关, 此期处于每年6月下旬至8月上旬的高温期, 高温导致玉米蒸腾及蒸发加大, 需水量增加; 而春玉米和夏玉米播种-拔节期以及秋玉米吐丝-完熟期的需水量与气温呈显著负相关, 这可能是由于该阶段气温显著升高(表4), 玉米生育期变短^[37], 需水量减少。可见, 作物需水量与气温的关系具时空差异性, 还需要更多的研究去验证, 以便为深入认识气候变暖对作物的复杂影响提供更多的证据。本研究中湖北春玉米、夏玉米及秋玉米某些生育阶段的需水量与风速呈正相关, 与降水和相对湿度呈负相关(表3), 该规律与前人研究结果^{[31, 36]}基本一致。玉米需水量变化是受太阳辐射、温度、平均风速、平均相对湿度、降水综合影响的结果^[31]。闫苗祥等^[38]研究认为, 玉米生育期内气温随年份呈增加趋势, 相对湿度随年份呈减少趋势, 本文研究表明湖北省不同种植季玉米各时期气温随年份呈显著增加趋势, 降水、风速以及相对湿度呈显著减少趋势。刘晓英等^[33]认为华北地区日照与风速减小是玉米需水量下降的主要原因。黄淮海区玉米需水量的下降则与降水及风速的下降有关^[31]。本研究表明鄂中及鄂北地区春玉米、夏玉米需水量年际下降趋势明显, 可能是该阶段风速及相对湿度随年份显著下降所致(表4)。

玉米受旱涝影响的程度主要是玉米需水量、当地有效降水量、地形土壤蓄水能力等综合作用的结果, 具有明显的季节性与区域性特征。利用水分盈亏指数法, 高晓容等^[3]发现东北玉米抽雄前旱涝发生频率较低, 但抽雄后中度旱涝发生频率较高, 且今年来有干旱化的趋势; 淮河流域夏玉米各生育阶段均有不同程度的水分亏缺, 尤以中部地区干旱化程度较重^[39]; 张玉芳等^[40]研究发现四川盆地玉米全生育期干旱风险重度区主要集中在盆中浅丘区、盆东平行岭谷区大部及盆南丘陵区部分区域。黄晚华等^[41]发现湖南春玉米干旱频率较高的时段主要在玉米抽雄– 吐丝阶段及其后的生育阶段, 且随生育期后移干旱频率明显增加, 以轻旱程度为主, 以湘中南的衡阳及周边一带干旱频率最高。本文研究表明湖北不同区域各种植季玉米播种-拔节阶段主要以发生涝灾为主, 其余时期均主要发生旱灾频率较高, 与湖南省春玉米的旱涝规律较相似^[41]。另外, 湖北不同区域各季玉米的水分盈亏指数(CWSDI)没有明显的年际变化趋势, 说明玉米旱涝发生频率没有变化。而隋月等^[42]利用水分亏缺指数(CWDI)研究表明, 长江中下游地区春玉米在七叶到拔节阶段的干旱强度明显增加, 在吐丝后到乳熟阶段呈减小趋势; 夏玉米在拔节到乳熟阶段的干旱呈减轻趋势。该研究中水分亏缺指数(CWDI)的计算主要用于干旱等级划分, 没有考虑水分盈余时造成的涝渍影响, 这可能是与本研究的某些结果不尽一致的原因。

4 结论

湖北省低丘平原区不同种植季玉米需水量有较大差异, 其中春玉米与夏玉米需水量相当, 而秋玉米需水量则明显减少。各季玉米需水量在鄂中及鄂北地区均有显著的年际下降趋势, 但其旱涝发生频率则年际变化不显著。从近35年湖北玉米旱涝发生规律看, 鄂中及鄂东南春玉米苗期渍害发生频率较高, 拔节后主要以发生干旱为主; 鄂北春玉米苗期渍害相对较轻, 而吐丝-乳熟阶段干旱程度要重于鄂中及鄂东南地区。在3个区域夏玉米与秋玉米苗期均以发生涝灾为主, 拔节后以发生干旱为主。然而, 与春玉米及夏玉米相比, 秋玉米在拔节— 乳熟阶段发生重旱的频率要高于夏玉米及春玉米。从减少干旱风险及防灾投入考虑, 建议在鄂北地区主要发展夏玉米、鄂中及鄂东南地区主要发展春玉米, 适当控制秋玉米面积。在鄂东南及鄂中地区, 要注意玉米苗期的防涝, 生育中后期防旱; 在鄂北地区主要注意防旱。

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

作者已声明无竞争性利益关系。

参考文献

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[36]	杨剑, 孙小舟. 西辽河流域春玉米需水量变化趋势. 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2010, 44: 691-695 Yang J, Sun X Z. Climate-induced changes in spring maize water requirement in Xiliaohe river watershed. J Central China Norm Univ(Nat Sci), 2010, 44: 691-695 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:2]
[37]	王泓霏, 陈新平, 崔振岭, 孟庆锋. 气候变化对邢台夏玉米的影响及品种适应性. 应用生态学报, 2014, 25: 155-161 Wang H F, Chen X P, Cui Z L, Meng Q F. Impacts of climate change on summer maize production and adaptive selection of varieties in Xingtai County, Hebei, China. Chin J Appl Ecol, 2014, 25: 155-161 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:1]
[38]	闫苗祥, 杨军耀. 郑州市作物需水量影响因素主成分回归分析. 节水灌溉, 2014, (7): 22-24 Yan M X, Yang J Y. The principal component regression analysis of impact factor of crop water requirement in Zhengzhou City. Water Sav Irrig, 2014, (7): 22-24 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:1]
[39]	张建军, 王晓东. 淮河流域夏玉米关键期水分盈亏时空变化分析. 中国农学通报, 2014, 30(21): 100-105 Zhang J J, Wang X D. Spatial-temporal analysis of the water surplus deficit index for the summer corn’ s key period in the Huaihe Basin. Chin Agric Bull, 2014, 30(21): 100-105 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:1]
[40]	张玉芳, 王明田, 刘娟, 董孝斌, 刘琰琰. 基于水分盈亏指数的四川省玉米生育期干旱时空变化特征分析. 中国生态农业学报, 2013, 21: 236-242 Zhang Y F, Wang M T, Liu J, Dong X B, Liu Y Y. Spatio- temporal characteristics of drought at different maize growth stages in Sichuan Province as determined by water budget index. Chin J Eco-Agric, 2013, 21: 236-242 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:1]
[41]	黄晚华, 杨晓光, 曲辉辉, 冯利平, 黄彬香, 王靖, 施生锦, 武永峰, 张晓煜, 肖小平, 杨光立, 李茂松. 基于作物水分亏缺指数的春玉米季节性干旱时空特征分析. 农业工程学报, 2009, 25(8): 28-34 Huang W H, Yang X G, Qu H H, Feng L P, Huang B X, Wang J, Shi S J, Wu Y F, Zhang X Y, Xiao X P, Yang G L, Li M S. Analysis of spatio-temporal characteristic on seasonal drought of spring maize based on crop water deficit index. Trans CSAE, 2009, 25(8): 28-34 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:2]
[42]	隋月, 黄晚华, 杨晓光, 李茂松. 气候变化背景下中国南方地区季节性干旱特征与适应: IV. 基于作物水分亏缺指数的玉米干旱时空特征. 应用生态学报, 2013, 24: 2590-2598 Sui Y, Huang W H, Yang X G, Li M S. Characteristics and adaptation of seasonal drought in southern China under the background of global climate change: IV. Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought for maize based on crop water deficit index. Chin J Appl Ecol, 2013, 24: 2590-2598 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:1]

1995

0.0

... 而在实际计算中一般认为作物需水量在数量上等于高产水平下的植株蒸腾量与棵间蒸发量之和^[1,2] ...

2004

0.0

陈凤, 蔡焕杰, 王健. 秸秆覆盖条件下玉米需水量及作物系数的试验研究. 灌溉排水学报, 2004, 23(1): 41-43

Chen

, Cai H

, Wang

. Evaluation of crop water requirement and crop coefficient of straw-mulched summer maize. J Irrig Drain, 2004, 23(1): 41-43 (in Chinese with English abstract)

... 而在实际计算中一般认为作物需水量在数量上等于高产水平下的植株蒸腾量与棵间蒸发量之和^[1,2] ...

2012

0.0

高晓容, 王春乙, 张继权, 薛绪掌. 近50年东北玉米生育阶段需水量及旱涝时空变化. 农业工程学报, 2012, 28(12): 101-109

Gao X

, Wang C

, Zhang J

, Xue X

. Crop water requirement and temporal-spatial variation of drought and flood disaster during growth stages for maize in northeast China during past 50 years. Trans CSAE, 2012, 28(12): 101-109 (in Chinese with English abstract)

It is essential to comprehensively analyze the rules of water demand and supply and the variation of drought-flood disaster of growth stages for maize in Northeast China over the recent 50 years to provide theoretical basis for strategies of preventing and reducing disasters. The multivariate data including daily meteorological data during 1961-2010, maize growing records over the past 20 years, and agriculture disaster data in the recent 10 years for 48 agro-meteorological observation stations across Northeast China were used. Based on these data, the water requirement of the four growth stages were calculated using crop coefficient method to reveal the temporal-spatial distribution of maize water supply and demand over Northeast China. The drought-flood distribution and evolvement of maize during different growth stages in Northeast of the recent 50 years were analyzed using the crop water surplus deficit index as the assessment index. Results showed that the water demand of maize during the four growth stages and the whole growing period didn’t have an appreciable change. There was a significant aridity tendency during milky ripening to maturation, while during the other three stages and the whole growth period there were no significant changes of drought or flood. Different spatial distribution patterns of water demand were found for the four growth stages, with a band distribution. From sowing to seven-leaf period, the frequency of middle drought or above and middle flood or above was lower, while during the followed three growth stages, the frequency was higher. Widespread and regional middle drought or above and middle flood or above of growth stages had obvious decadal changes. From 1980s, the number of widespread and regional middle drought or above and middle flood or above increased significantly.

分析近50?a东北玉米生育阶段的水分供需及旱涝变化，可以为防灾减灾对策的制定提供理论依据。该文基于东北地区48个农业气象观测站1961－2010年逐日气象资料、近20多年玉米生育期资料及近10?a农业灾情多元数据，利用作物系数法计算4个生育阶段的需水量，揭示东北玉米4个生育阶段水分供需的时空规律；以作物水分盈亏指数为评价指标，分析近50?a东北玉米不同生育阶段的旱涝分布及演变。结果表明：东北玉米4个生育阶段及全生育期的需水量没有显著变化；乳熟-成熟阶段，有显著的干旱化趋势，其它3个阶段和全生育期没有明显的旱涝变化。4个生育阶段需水量空间差异较大，基本呈带状分布。播种-七叶期，中旱及以上、中涝及以上灾害频率较低；后3个生育阶段，中旱及以上、中涝及以上灾害频率较高，且全域、区域旱涝现象呈明显的年代际变化特征，从20世纪80年代起全域、区域中旱及以上、中涝及以上次数明显增加。

... 作物需水量的估算和预测是评价作物水分利用及水分胁迫程度的基础^[3], 对于制定合理的节水灌溉制度, 研究区域农业水资源的供需平衡关系, 对于气候变化响应及应对措施的决策有重要意义^[4,5] ...

... 目前认为比较精确且应用最多的是FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith法^[7], 在我国得到了验证^[10]及广泛应用^[3,4,11,12] ...

... 第二类指标如综合气象干旱指数CI ^[16]、相对湿润度指数^[17]、作物水分盈亏指数^[3]等, 能够反映水分供需的变化 ...

... 目前针对北方玉米主产区旱涝灾害时空变化规律及其对玉米生产影响的研究较多^[3,12,19], 但针对长江中游低丘平原区不同种植季玉米需水规律及旱涝灾害的研究却较少 ...

... K_c为作物系数, 采用1998年FAO推荐的分段单值平均法计算^[3] ...

... 3 水分盈亏指数及旱涝等级的确定在农业气象研究领域, 为了准确反映玉米各生育阶段的需水特性及水分供应状况, 通常基于作物水分亏缺指数构建玉米生育阶段水分盈亏指数CWSDI (crop water surplus deficit index)表征水分盈亏程度^[3] ...

... 参考高晓容等^[3]旱涝等级划分标准, 确定玉米各生育阶段标准为重涝CWSDI #cod#x0003E ...

... 3 讨论玉米需水量是玉米栽培管理、制定灌溉制度的依据, 在我国玉米主产区得到了较多的关注^[3,5,30], 而对长江中游玉米需水量却鲜有研究报道 ...

... 而东北地区玉米需水量在近50年内没有明显的年际变化^[3] ...

... 利用水分盈亏指数法, 高晓容等^[3]发现东北玉米抽雄前旱涝发生频率较低, 但抽雄后中度旱涝发生频率较高, 且今年来有干旱化的趋势 ...

2009

0.0

孔箐锌, 张海林, 陈阜, 宋振伟. 基于SIMETAW模型的北京地区主要作物需水量估算. 中国农业大学学报, 2009, 14(5): 109-115

Kong Q

, Zhang H

, Chen

, Song Z

. Estimation of main crop water requirement in Beijing based on SIMETAW model. J Chin Agric Univ, 2009, 14(5): 109-115 (in Chinese with English abstract)

摘　要：应用北京近56年气象数据对SIMETAW模型进行校正，并利用模型估算北京地区主要大田作物需水量。结果表明：SIMETAW模型对参考作物腾发量的模拟与彭曼-蒙特斯公式计算值较为接近，r〉0．94，结果可靠。北京地区主要大田作物的需水量和作物系数在全生育期内均呈现“单峰型”曲线；果树类作物需水量相对较大，其次是粮经作物，其中春花生、棉花、春甘薯和冬小麦需水量较大，均在430mm以上；蔬菜类作物由于生育期较短，单季耗水量小，均在400mm以下。

... 目前认为比较精确且应用最多的是FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith法^[7], 在我国得到了验证^[10]及广泛应用^[3,4,11,12] ...

2015

0.0

冯慧敏, 张光辉, 王电龙, 田言亮, 王金哲, 严明疆. 华北平原粮食作物需水量对气候变化的响应特征. 中国水土保持科学, 2015, 13(3): 130-136

Feng H

, Zhang G

, Wang D

, Tian Y

, Wang J

, Yan M

. Response characteristics of grain crop water requirement to climate change in North China Plain. Sci Soil Water Conserv, 2015, 13(3): 130-136 (in Chinese with English abstract)

... 3 讨论玉米需水量是玉米栽培管理、制定灌溉制度的依据, 在我国玉米主产区得到了较多的关注^[3,5,30], 而对长江中游玉米需水量却鲜有研究报道 ...

2007

0.0

刘丙军, 邵东国, 沈新平. 作物需水时空尺度特征研究进展. 农业工程学报, 2007, 23(5): 258-264

Liu B

, Shao D

, Shen X P. Advances in researches on the spatial-temporal features of crop water requirement. Trans CSAE#/magtechI#, 2007, 23(5): 258-264(in Chinese)

Influenced by meteorological, soil, planting conditions and so on, crop water requirement is obviously characterized by its spatial-temporal heterogeneity on different scales. As the result of this heterogeneity, the theories and models of crop water requirement were highly scale-dependent. The calculation method of spatial-temporal features of crop water requirement was expounded. Finally, this paper suggests that, based on the experimental data, a new multi-scale crop water requirement estimating model of theoretical basis and wide application should be developed, and the spatial-temporal features of crop water requirement should be analyzed, using the complexity theories such as the fractal theory, the wavelet analysis and the information entropy approach.

受气象、土壤和种植条件等客观条件的影响，作物需水时空尺度分布具有明显的时空异质性，致使作物需水的理论和模型具有高度的尺度依赖性。基于此，该文对作物需水时空尺度特征的计算方法及其运用情况作了详细的阐述，并建议在今后作物需水时空尺度特征的进一步研究中，应以试验数据为基础，运用分形、小波、信息熵等复杂性理论，研究作物需水的时空尺度特征，发展既有理论基础又便于应用的区域尺度的作物需水量估算新模式。

... 国内外对作物需水量的估算方法较多^[6], 如FAO-56双作物系数法^[7]、双涌源能量守恒模型^[8]、神经网络技术估算法^[9]等 ...

1998

0.0

... 国内外对作物需水量的估算方法较多^[6], 如FAO-56双作物系数法^[7]、双涌源能量守恒模型^[8]、神经网络技术估算法^[9]等 ...

... 目前认为比较精确且应用最多的是FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith法^[7], 在我国得到了验证^[10]及广泛应用^[3,4,11,12] ...

... 2 玉米需水量采用联合国粮农组织(FAO)推荐的方法^[7]计算玉米需水量(ET_c) ...

... ET₀为参考作物日蒸散量(mm d^-1), 利用FAO (1998)修订的Penman-Monteith公式计算研究区域各站点参考作物蒸散量(ET₀)^[7] ...

2006

0.0

于婵, 朝伦巴根, 高瑞忠, 柴建华. 无水分胁迫下行作物蒸发与双涌源能量分配和交换关系. 应用生态学报, 2006, 17(5): 83-84

, Chao-Lun-Ba-Gen, Gao R Z, Chai J H. Relationships between row crop evapotranspiration and two sources- energy partition and exchange under non-water stress condition. Chin J Appl Ecol, 2006, 17(5): 83-84 (in Chinese with English abstract)

摘　要：以内蒙古浑善达克沙地人工草地种植的行作物——青贮玉米为研究对象，将FAO-56的双作物系数法与双涌源能量平衡模型相结合，计算了太阳入射能量按叶面积指数（LAI）分配到两个涌源（冠层、土壤表面）的有效能量Ac和As、潜热通量λEc和 λEs以及显热通量Hc和Hs．分析两个涌源在有效能量驱使下的潜热和显热通量相互作用．结果表明，1）在无水分胁迫条件下，冠层Hc与λEc相互作用使冠层吸收微热平流，强化蒸腾作用，加大蒸腾量．蒸腾（以潜热通量表示）超过冠层有效能量的增量（λEc^i-Ac^i）．最大值出现在生长发育阶段LAI 为0．6的7月15日到LAI为2．4的8月9日之间，其平均值为4．32MJ·m^-2·d^-1．2）无水分胁迫情况下，λEs和Hs相互作用，除强湿润过程后的1～2d外，其他各天土壤均以低于土壤表面有效能量的速率蒸发．蒸发强度取决于土壤表面有效能量消散为土壤潜热通量的百分比，这个百分比最小值出现在生长中期阶段，其平均值为11．5％；最大值出现在生长初始阶段，其平均值为51．9％．3）两个涌源潜热通量是蒸散过程中能量交换的主要成分，在生长发育、中期、后期阶段转换为两个涌源潜热通量的有效能量均占总能量的83％以上．

... 国内外对作物需水量的估算方法较多^[6], 如FAO-56双作物系数法^[7]、双涌源能量守恒模型^[8]、神经网络技术估算法^[9]等 ...

2006

0.0

高瑞忠, 朝伦巴根, 于婵, 朱仲元, 柴建华. 基于随机样本的神经网络模型估算参考作物腾发量. 农业工程学报, 2006, 22(2): 42-45

Gao R

, Chao-Lun-Ba-Gen, Yu C, Zhu Z Y, Chai J H. Estimating reference crop evapotranspiration using artificial neural network based on rand om samples. Trans CSAE, 2006, 22(2): 42-45 (in Chinese with English abstract)

Quantification of referencecrop evapotranspiration(ET 0 ) is necessary in the context of many issues, for example calculating crop requirement, scheduling of irrigation and the management of water resource so on. Random samples instead of the long-term climatic data were used as samples to construct Artificial Neural Network(ANN) model for estimating ET 0 and the performance of ANN was compared with the method of modified Penman-Monteith. The maximum and minimum temperature, maximum and minimum relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed were selected as network inputs and ET 0 was selected as network output. After calculating, the result shows that the estimation of ANN has higher accuracy by error analysis.

参考作物腾发量(ET 0 )是计算作物需水量、制定灌溉制度和进行水资源管理的主要参数之一。计算参考作物腾发量(ET 0 )的方法众多，为规范ET 0 的求法，联合国粮农组织(FAO)推荐采用修改的Penman-Monteith方法。该文指出不需要收集长序列气象资料，而以随机样本建立学习速率和动量因子自适应的BP神经网络模型估算参考作物腾发量(ET 0 )的方法，并且与FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith法计算值对比分析，结果表明：利用随机样本建立的的BP神经网络模型可以很好的反映气象因子(最高温度、最低温度、最大湿度、最小湿度、净辐射和风速)与参考作物腾发量(ET 0 )的非线性函数映射关系，并且取得了良好的估算效果，给出了国家自然科学基金重点项目研究区内蓝旗试验站2004年的时间尺度为日、十日参考作物腾发量(ET 0 )的计算及对比分析过程。

... 国内外对作物需水量的估算方法较多^[6], 如FAO-56双作物系数法^[7]、双涌源能量守恒模型^[8]、神经网络技术估算法^[9]等 ...

2000

0.0

刘钰, Pereira L

. 对FAO推荐的作物系数计算方法的验证. 农业工程学报, 2000, 16(5): 26-30

Liu

, Pereira L

. Validation of FAO methods for estimating crop coefficients. Trans CSAE, 2000, 16(5): 26-30 (in Chinese with English abstract)

Crop coefficient is the basic parameter for determining crop water requirement. In this paper, two methods proposed by FAO are described. One is time averaged crop coefficient(K c ) approach, which is a simple and useful method. The other is dual crop coefficient approach with more complicated computations but more accurate results. Both approaches were validated with experimental results at Xiongxian Experimental Station, Hebei Province. The results showed that the K c values calculated by FAO methods are close to that as estimated from experiment data. Both methods are valid to use for determination of crop coefficients on the North China Plain if there are no on site experiment data available.

作物系数是计算作物需水量必不可少的参数。该文介绍了FAO近期推荐的确定作物系数的2种计算方法,一种是比较简单实用的分段单值平均法,另一种是比较复杂但相对准确的双值作物系数法。用河北省雄县灌溉试验站的冬小麦、夏玉米田间土壤水分观测资料计算作物实际腾发量,对上述2种确定作物系数的方法进行了检验。计算的作物系数与雄县试验站的实测结果基本接近,从而初步证明了在缺少实测资料的情况下可以采用FAO推荐的方法确定华北地区主要作物的作物系数

... 目前认为比较精确且应用最多的是FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith法^[7], 在我国得到了验证^[10]及广泛应用^[3,4,11,12] ...

2014

0.0

宋妮, 孙景生, 王景雷, 陈智芳, 刘祖贵. 河南省冬小麦需水量的时空变化及影响因素. 应用生态学报, 2014, 25: 1693-1700

Song

, Sun J

, Wang J

, Chen Z

, Liu Z

. Temporal and spatial variation of water requirement of winter wheat and its influencing factors in Henan Province, China. Chin J Appl Ecol, 2014, 25: 1693-1700 (in Chinese with English abstract)

Based on mean meteorological data of ten days in 17 observation stations from 1961 to 2012, the reference crop evapotranspiration was computed using PenmanMonteith formula recommended by FAO. The water requirement of winter wheat in Henan Province was calculated by adopting crop coefficients and the growth stage of winter wheat from the “National Irrigation Experiment Database”, and the temporal and spatial distribution, variation and affecting factors in recent 51 years were analyzed by means of timeseries analysis and gray relational grade analysis. The results showed that the average water requirement of winter wheat was 345-492 mm in Henan Province from 1961 to 2011, and it was lowest at Lushi station and highest at Mengjin station. The average water requirement of winter wheat was lowest from 1980 to 1989 and highest from 1961 to 1969 at most stations. The water requirement of winter wheat showed a tendency to increase with years at the 7 stations （Xinxiang, Luanchuan, Kaifeng, Xixia, Nanyang, Xinyang and Gushi), while it indicated a tendency to decline in the other 10 stations. The water requirement of winter wheat in North Henan was higher than in South Henan, and had a high span variation in West Henan. During the growing period of winter wheat, the average daily maximum and minimum temperatures showed a tendency to increase with years, while the average daily wind speed and relative humidity, and the sunshine hours had a tendency to decline. In Henan Province, the water requirement of winter wheat was mainly affected by the average daily maximum temperature and the sunshine hours, and least influenced by the average daily relative humidity.

基于河南省17个气象监测站点1961—2012年逐旬气象数据,采用FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith公式计算参考作物需水量,结合“全国灌溉试验资料数据库”中冬小麦生育期、作物系数等数据计算冬小麦生育期需水量,利用时间序列分析法和灰色关联分析法,分析河南省冬小麦需水量近51年来的时空分布特征、变化规律及其主要影响因素.结果表明: 1961—2011年,河南省冬小麦平均需水量在345~492 mm,卢氏站冬小麦平均需水量最低,孟津站最高.大部分站点1980—1989年冬小麦平均需水量最低,1961—1969年冬小麦平均需水量最高.17个站点中,新乡、栾川、开封、西峡、南阳、信阳、固始7站冬小麦需水量随年份呈上升趋势,其余10个站点需水量均呈下降趋势；豫北需水量高于豫南,豫西地区需水量跨度较大.河南省17站冬小麦生育期日平均高温、日平均低温均随年份呈上升趋势,生育期日平均风速、日平均相对湿度、日照时数基本呈下降趋势.河南省冬小麦生育期日平均高温、日照时数是影响冬小麦需水量的主要因素,日平均相对湿度对其影响最小.

... 目前认为比较精确且应用最多的是FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith法^[7], 在我国得到了验证^[10]及广泛应用^[3,4,11,12] ...

2013

0.0

王晓东, 马晓群, 许莹, 陈超. 淮河流域主要农作物全生育期水分盈亏时空变化分析. 资源科学, 2013, 35: 665-672

Wang X

, Ma X

, Xu

, Chen

. Temporal analysis of the crop water surplus deficit index for the whole growth period in the Huaihe Basin. Resour Sci, 2013, 35: 665-672 (in Chinese with English abstract)

... 目前认为比较精确且应用最多的是FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith法^[7], 在我国得到了验证^[10]及广泛应用^[3,4,11,12] ...

... 其中作物水分盈亏指数(CWSDI)是最常用的作物旱涝诊断指标之一^[12,18], 能够较好地反映土壤、植物和气象三方面因素对作物的综合影响, 比较真实地反映出作物水分亏缺状况^[19] ...

2015

0.0

陈少勇, 郭俊瑞, 吴超. 基于降水量距平百分率的中国西南和华南地区的冬旱特征. 自然灾害学报, 2015, 24(1): 23-31

Chen S

, Guo J

, Wu

. Characteristics of winter drought in southwest-south China based on precipitation anomaly percentage. J Nat Disaster, 2015, 24(1): 23-31 (in Chinese with English abstract)

利用我国西南和华南地区131个测站近50a的降水资料和NECP资料,采用线性趋势分析、合成分析、小波分析、功率谱分析等方法,通过季尺度降水距平百分率将冬旱分为无旱、轻旱、中旱、重旱和特重旱5个级别,分析了近50 a我国西南和华南地区各级别干旱的空间分布及时间变化特征。结果表明:在这一区域中,每一个级别的干旱都有从东向西增多的分布趋势;重旱、特重旱集中出现在川西南—云南、广东南部;各级别干旱都无明显的气候趋势,1963年是干旱最重的年份,主要在云南、广东等地,其次是1969年、2009年、1974年,但2010年末期干旱面积增大,强度增强。各级别的干旱具有2~3 a的周期,特重旱年有显著的6 a周期;干旱频率高的地方连旱频率也高,连旱年数增多,分布范围减小。

... 目前在农业旱涝研究上通常用两类指标来反映其发生程度与规律, 第一类是降水量指标, 如降水距平百分率^[13]、标准化降水指数^[14]、Z指数^[15]等, 这类指标能够反映水分供应的情况 ...

2010

0.0

黄晚华, 杨晓光, 李茂松, 张晓煜, 王明田, 代姝玮, 马洁华. 基于标准化降水指数的中国南方季节性干旱近58a演变特征. 农业工程学报, 2010, 26(7): 50-59

Huang W

, Yang X

, Li M

, Zhang X

, Wang M

, Dai S

, Ma J

. Evolution characteristics of seasonal drought in the south of China during the past 58 years based on stand ardized precipitation index. Trans CSAE, 2010, 26(7): 50-59 (in Chinese with English abstract)

近年来南方地区季节性干旱频繁发生,对农业生产造成了严重影响.分析其演变特征和发生规律,能为应对全球气候变化背景下制订抗旱减灾对策提供理论依据.该研究利用中国南方15个省(市、区)的气象台站降水资料,选择采用标准化降水指数(SPI)为干旱指标,计算了南方地区最近58 a(1951-2008年)各月干旱指数,在此基础上分析了全年及各季季节性干旱的站次比(发生干早站数与总站数之比)和干旱强度的年际变化.研究结果表明:干旱程度在时间尺度上呈不同程度增加趋势;干旱的季节性特征为春旱和秋旱有加重的趋势,而夏早和冬旱有减轻的趋势.季节性干旱空间演变特征表现为:长江中下游地区、西南地区、华南地区等各区域季节性干旱变化与整个南方总体干旱变化表现基本一致.在当前气候变化背景下,我国南方干旱整体上呈现对农业生产的不利影响加重的趋势.研究和验证表明标准化降水指数(SPI)能很好地体现季节性干旱的年际变化特征.

2004

0.0

袁文平, 周广胜. 标准化降水指标与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析. 植物生态学报, 2004, 28: 523-529

Yuan W

, Zhou G

. Comparison between stand ardized precipitation index and z_index in China. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2004, 28: 523-529 (in Chinese with English abstract)

Droughts are the world’s costliest natural disasters, causing an estimated $6-$8 billion in global damages annually and affecting more people than any other form of natural disaster. Given the consequences and pervasiveness of droughts, it is important to assess the specialized indices that are used to assess drought severity. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) has several characteristics that are an improvement over previous indices, including its simplicity and temporal flexibility that allow it to examine both short term and long term drought conditions. Computation of the SPI involves fitting a gamma probability density function to a given time series of monthly precipitation totals for a weather station. The resulting parameters are then used to find the probability of a particular precipitation event over a given time scale. This probability is then converted to the standard normal random variable SPI index value. In this article, 1-month SPI are calculated and compared with the Z-index, the most widely used index in China. The results demonstrated that 1-month SPI calculated for 7 observational stations are greatly consistent with Zindex, but that the SPI rarely relates to distributing on precipitation, avoiding some of the irregularities associated with the Z-index. Thus, the SPI is superior to the Z-index in its application.We also investigated drought and flood events from 1951-1995 for Beijing in greater detail. By using the 24-month SPI (SPI24), three well-defined drought and flood events were identified from the data series. In general, the same drought and flood events were observed using the 12-month SPI (SPI12) as the SPI24, although there were some interruptions where the SPI12 values approached zero or became negative for short periods. For 3-month periods (SPI3), the SPI values frequently fell above and below zero. These results highlight the SPI characteristics at different time scales. As the time scale increases from 1 to 24 months, the SPI responds more slowly to short-term precipitation variation, and the cycles of positive (wet conditions) and negative (drought) SPI values become more visible. The possibility of calculating the SPI for different time scales enhances its analysis capacity, since it allows the estimation of different antecedent conditions in the soils. Whereas the shortest scales (1 to 3 months) quantifies superficial soil water, which bears a direct significance for agriculture, the longest accumulation scales (12 to 24 months) indicate the state of subsoil moisture as well as other surface and subsurface water resources. The joint consideration of different SPI scales in the analysis contributed to a satisfactory explanation of risk conditions before each flood event reported. These results indicate that the SPI is an effective index for assessing drought conditions at different time scales and should be adopted for use in China.

利用分布于我国不同气候区的7个气象台站1951～1995年的月降水资料,比较分析了标准化降水指标(Standardized precipitation index, SPI)和在我国已成熟应用的Z指数。结果表明,SPI计算简单,资料容易获取,而且计算结果与Z指数有极好的一致性。同时，由于SPI是通过概率密度函数求解累积概率,再将累积概率标准化而得,具有稳定的计算特性,消除了降水的时空分布差异,在各个区域和各个时段均能有效地反映旱涝状况,优于在我国广泛应用的Z指数。此外,SPI还可以计算不同时间尺度的指标值,能够满足不同水资源状况分析的要求。以北京为例,探讨了应用4种时间尺度的SPI值反映1951～1995年期间的旱涝事件,发现SPI能准确地反映北京45年间的旱涝趋势,对于旱涝灾害有着良好的预测作用，可用于我国的水资源评估以及不同时间尺度的干旱监测。

2012

0.0

张婧, 梁树柏, 许晓光, 张金满, 于智强, 刘伟荣. 基于CI指数的河北省近50年干旱时空分布特征. 资源科学, 2012, 34: 1089-1094

Zhang

, Liang S

, Xu X

, Zhang J

, Yu Z

, Liu W

. Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of droughts for recent 50 years in Hebei Province based on meteorological drought composite index. Resour Sci, 2012, 34: 1089-1094 (in Chinese with English abstract)

基于河北省1961年-2010年64个气象站逐日气温和降水资料,采用综合气象干旱指数（CI）计算近50年逐日CI值,分析了河北省气象干旱发生的时空分布特征。结果表明：河北省近50年降水量以16.5mm/10年的速度递减,近10年中有7年降水量不足历年均值;各级干旱年均出现日数均为南多北少,其中冀南平原地区最多,张家口北部最少;四季中春旱最重,夏旱最轻,除夏旱为东北低、西南高外,其他时段均为北低南高的特点;近20年中有16年出现重、特旱覆盖率为100%,夏季出现大范围重、特旱的年份最多、冬季最少;秋季大范围干旱增长趋势较其他季节明显。

... 第二类指标如综合气象干旱指数CI ^[16]、相对湿润度指数^[17]、作物水分盈亏指数^[3]等, 能够反映水分供需的变化 ...

2012

0.0

王明田, 王翔, 黄晚华, 张玉芳, 马均. 基于相对湿润度指数的西南地区季节性干旱时空分布特征. 农业工程学报, 2012, 28(19): 85-92

Wang M

, Wang

, Huang W

, Zhang Y

, Ma

. Temporal and spatial distribution of seasonal drought in Southwest of China based on relative moisture index. Trans CSAE, 2012, 28(19): 85-92 (in Chinese with English abstract)

... 第二类指标如综合气象干旱指数CI ^[16]、相对湿润度指数^[17]、作物水分盈亏指数^[3]等, 能够反映水分供需的变化 ...

2008

0.0

张艳红, 吕厚荃, 李森. 作物水分亏缺指数在农业干旱监测中的适用性. 气象科技, 2008, 36(5): 84-88

Zhang Y

, Lyu H

, Li

. Applicability of crop water deficit index in agricultural drought monitoring. Meteorol Sci Technol, 2008, 36(5): 84-88 (in Chinese with English abstract)

2012

0.0

尹海霞, 张勃, 张建香, 张调风, 李小亚, 靳自宝. 近50年来甘肃省河东地区春玉米干旱时空特征分析. 资源科学, 2012, 34: 2347-2355

Yin H

, Zhang

, Zhang J

, Zhang T

, Li X

, Jin Z

. Spatial-temporal characteristics of drought and spring maize in eastern Gansu. Resour Sci, 2012, 34: 2347-2355 (in Chinese with English abstract)

根据甘肃省河东地区15个气象站点50年的气象资料,利用FAOPenman-Monteith模型和所提供的作物系数计算出各站点春玉米不同生育阶段的作物需水量,在此基础上计算出作物水分亏缺指数(CWDI),并划分河东地区的干旱等级,分析春玉米干旱发生的时空特征。结果表明:在春玉米生长季内,CWDI呈现先增大后减小的趋势,其中最大值出现在6月中下旬,且每旬的CWDI值均大于10%,即在作物整个生长季,降水都无法满足春玉米需水的要求。不同等级干旱发生的频率:轻旱8%～20%;中旱7%～23%;重旱0～17%;特旱0～47%。生长季内,河东地区春玉米干旱发生程度基本由南向北递增,不同生育阶段干旱的严重程度:抽雄-开花期拔节期乳熟前期出苗-七叶期乳熟后期-成熟期。近50年来,出苗-七叶期和拔节期的干旱有逐渐缓解的趋势;抽雄-开花期和乳熟前期干旱变化的趋势大致相同:20世纪60年代中后期及70年代初为干旱的严重时期,70年代中后期有所缓解,至今又有加重的趋势;乳熟后期-成熟期,近50年来干旱有加重的趋势。

2010

0.0

展茗, 赵明, 刘永忠, 徐尚忠. 湖北省玉米产需矛盾及提升玉米生产科技水平对策. 湖北农业科学, 2010, 49: 802-806

Zhan

, Zhao

, Liu Y

, Xu S

. Enhance maize production technology, alleviate the contradiction between production and demand s of maize in Hubei Province. Hubei Agric Sci, 2010, 49: 802-806 (in Chinese with English abstract)

... 湖北省地处长江中游, 光、热、水资源丰富, 属于一年两熟和三熟的多熟制区域, 80%的土地面积为玉米适宜种植区^[20,21], 可种植春玉米、夏玉米和秋玉米 ...

1997

0.0

佟屏亚. 我国玉米生产现状和发展策略. 科技导报, 1997, 15(11): 22-25

Tong P

. Present State on Production of China’s Corn and Its Developmental Strategy. Sci Technol Rev, 1997, 15(11): 22-25 (in Chinese)

2015

0.0

... 8%^[22], 其发展速度超过了第一大作物的水稻与第二大作物小麦 ...

1995

0.0

... 虽然湖北省降水资源丰富, 但年内及年际间分配不均, 且变率大, 需水关键期往往与降水多的时段不重合, 常导致渍涝、干旱发生, 对产量影响较大^[23] ...

2015

0.0

... 1 玉米生育阶段的确定湖北省玉米按播种时间可分为春玉米、夏玉米和秋玉米^[24] ...

1997

0.0

... 温度是影响作物生长发育进程的重要环境因子, 作物完成某个生育阶段需要一定的积温, 因此积温被用于推断作物各个生育时期出现的一种常见指标^[25] ...

2007

0.0

刘战东, 段爱旺, 肖俊夫, 刘祖贵. 旱作物生育期有效降水量计算模式研究进展. 灌溉排水学报, 2007, 26(3): 27-30

Liu Z

, Duan A

, Xiao J

, Liu Z

. Research progress on calculation methods of effective rainfall in growing period on dry crop. J Irrig Drain, 2007, 26(3): 27-30 (in Chinese with English abstract)

在查阅国内外相关文献的基础上,对目前有效降水量的研究方法进行了简要的评述,并结合现有有效降水量计算模式,对它们的适应性和计算结果的可靠性进行了对比分析.结果表明,各种计算模式均存在一定的局限性,不同模式在同条件下模拟计算的结果存在明显的差异.最后,对该领域存在的问题及未来的研究方向作了简要的探讨.

... 国内外对有效降水量的估算方法较多^[26] ...

1996

0.0

康绍忠, 蔡焕杰, 张富仓, 刘晓明, 梁银丽. 节水农业中作物水分管理基本理论问题的探讨. 水利学报, 1996, (5): 9-17

Kang S

, Cai H

, Zhang F

, Liu X

, Liang Y

. Discussion on crop water management for water saving agriculture. J Hydraul Eng, 1996, (5): 9-17 (in Chinese with English abstract)

... 本文采用国内常用的经验公式法, 该方法计算简便, 被国内的一些学者采用^[27] ...

2007

0.0

栾兆擎, 章光新, 邓伟, 胡金明, 周德民. 松嫩平原50年来气温及降水变化分析. 中国农业气象, 2007, 28: 355-358

Luan Z

, Zhang G

, Deng

, Hu J

, Zhou D

. Studies on changes of air temperature and precipitation for last 50 years in Songnen Plain. Chin J Agrometeorol, 2007, 28: 355-358 (in Chinese with English abstract)

Based on the monthly data of air temperature and precipitation in the last 50 years from meteorological stations in the Songnen Plain, the climate variations and tendencies of the Songnen Plain were analysed by calculating climate trend coefficient and climate tendency ratio. The results showed that the annual mean air temperature increased by 0.3487℃ each ten year in the Songnen Plain in the last 50 years. The monthly air temperature showed an increased trend. The strong increase of air temperature in the winter and spring was observed by 0.5754℃ each ten year, while the air temperature in summer and autumn increased by 0.1868℃ each ten year as well. As the increase of the air temperature in the cold season was higher than that in the hot season, the year air temperature differences decreased. The temperature increase showed a regional difference. The tendency ratio of air temperature was highest with>0.45℃ each ten year in the Northwest of the Plain, while it was the lowest with<0.2℃ each ten year in the East of the Plain. The changes of the precipitation in the Songnen Plain were not significant, but with a weak decreased tendency. The tendency ratio of the yearly mean precipitation was -0.0783 mm each ten year. The decrease of precipitation in autumn was more obvious than that in other seasons.

运用趋势系数和气候倾向率分析了松嫩平原地区50a来气温及降水的时空变化规律。结果表明,50a来本区气温有显著上升趋势,平均气温以0.3487℃/10a幅度升高。全年各月气温均呈上升趋势,但是冬春季升温剧烈,达0.5754℃/10a;夏秋季较弱,仅为0.1868℃/10a。由于最冷月平均温度升高比最热月大,导致气温年较差减少。气温升高存在显著的区域差异,平原西北部地区增温强烈,气温倾向率大于0.45℃/10a;平原东部地区气温倾向率较低,小于0.20℃/10a。全区降水总体趋势性变化不显著,但还是呈现弱的减少趋势,平均年降水量倾向率为-0.0783mm/10a,且秋季降水减少明显。

... 4 趋势检验玉米需水量、水分盈亏指数、气温、降水、风速、湿度等年际变化趋势, 可用气候趋势系数和气候倾向率反映^[28,29] ...

2014

0.0

宋妮, 孙景生, 王景雷, 陈智芳, 刘祖贵. 河南省冬小麦需水量的时空变化及影响因素. 应用生态学报, 2014, 25: 1693-1700

Song

, Sun J

, Wang J

, Chen Z

, Liu Z

... 4 趋势检验玉米需水量、水分盈亏指数、气温、降水、风速、湿度等年际变化趋势, 可用气候趋势系数和气候倾向率反映^[28,29] ...

2008

0.0

肖俊夫, 刘战东, 陈玉民. 中国玉米需水量与需水规律研究. 玉米科学, 2008, 16(4): 21-25

Xiao J

, Liu Z

, Chen Y

. Study on the water requirement and water requirement regulation of maize in China. J Maize Sci, 2008, 16(4): 21-25

... 3 讨论玉米需水量是玉米栽培管理、制定灌溉制度的依据, 在我国玉米主产区得到了较多的关注^[3,5,30], 而对长江中游玉米需水量却鲜有研究报道 ...

... 肖俊夫等^[30]研究发现春玉米的需水量高于夏玉米, 且区域间的变化较大, 变化在400~700 mm之间, 夏玉米需水量变化在350~400 mm ...

... 湖北省夏玉米的需水量与春玉米相当, 区域上的变异也较小, 要高于北方夏玉米需水量^[30,31] ...

2011

0.0

杨晓琳, 黄晶, 陈阜, 褚庆全. 黄淮海农作区玉米需水量时空变化特征比较研究. 中国农业大学学报, 2011, 16(5): 26-31

Yang X

, Huang

, Chen

, Chu Q

. Comparison of temporal and spatial variation of water requirements of corn in Huang-Huai-Hai farming system region. J Chin Agric Univ, 2011, 16(5): 26-31 (in Chinese with English abstract)

Information of crop water requirement and its temporal and spatial change are important for irrigation scheduling,water resources planning and future decision-making.Based on the observed daily meteorological data in 1960－2009 of 50 normal meteorological codes in Huang-huai-hai farming region,the water requirements and irrigations of summer corn and spring corn were calculated by SIMETAW model.The results showed that water requirements of summer corn and spring corn are 321.70 and 456.70 mm respectively,which showed a significant downtrend in the past 50 years and the rainfall coupling degrees of summer corn and spring corn were 0.78 and 0.72 respectively.Compared with irrigations of summer corn,irrigations of spring corn had a significant downtrend and had significant differences in different regions,which showed a significant uptrend in the south of Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces;The downtrend of corn water requirement in Huang-huai-hai farming region mainly attributed to the reduction of solar radiation,which was also affected by other climatic factors.Wind speed,precipitation had negative correlations with the water requirements of summer corn and spring corn,while other climatic factors had positive effects.

鉴于作物需水量变化趋势对制定灌溉策略与区域水资源配置的重要作用,依据黄淮海农作区50个标准气象站点50年逐日气象数据资料,基于SIMETAW模型,分析了黄淮海各农作亚区夏玉米、春玉米生育期需水量、灌溉需要量的时空变化趋势,主要气象因子时间变化趋势以及需水量与气象因子的相关性。结果表明:1)该地区夏玉米、春玉米生育期需水量平均值分别为321.70和456.70 mm且近50年均呈下降趋势,两者降水耦合度分别为0.78、0.72; 2)与夏玉米生育期灌溉需要量相比,春玉米生育期灌溉需要量地区差异大且下降更显著,但两者在豫西丘陵山地旱坡地一熟水浇地二熟区均呈上升趋势; 3)夏玉米、春玉米需水量下降受太阳辐射、温度、平均风速、平均相对湿度、降水的综合影响,其中最主要气候原因为太阳辐射、温度;平均风速、降水量与之呈显著负相关,其他各因素为显著正相关。

... 本研究表明湖北省的春玉米需水量约430 mm左右, 与黄淮海区春玉米需水量相当^[31], 但区域间变异较小 ...

... 湖北省夏玉米的需水量与春玉米相当, 区域上的变异也较小, 要高于北方夏玉米需水量^[30,31] ...

... 也有研究表明黄淮海、华北地区、四川盆地玉米需水量近50年来存在显著的年际下降趋势^[31,33,34] ...

... 有研究表明玉米需水量与气温正相关^[31,36], 而刘晓英等^[33]]研究认为气温对华北地区玉米需水量的变化没有显著影响 ...

... 本研究中湖北春玉米、夏玉米及秋玉米某些生育阶段的需水量与风速呈正相关, 与降水和相对湿度呈负相关(表3), 该规律与前人研究结果^[31,36]基本一致 ...

... 玉米需水量变化是受太阳辐射、温度、平均风速、平均相对湿度、降水综合影响的结果^[31] ...

... 黄淮海区玉米需水量的下降则与降水及风速的下降有关^[31] ...

2012

0.0

王宏, 谭国明, 孙庆川, 周贺玲. 承德春玉米需水量变化及其与气象因子的关系. 气象与环境学报, 2012, 28(4): 69-72

Wang

, Tan G

, Sun Q

, Zhou H

. Variation of spring corn water requirement and its relationship with the meteorological factors in Chengde, Hebei Province. J Meteorol Environ, 2012, 28(4): 69-72 (in Chinese with English abstract)

摘　要：利用1961—2009年气象资料和发育期资料,采用FAO的Penman-Monteith公式计算春玉米生育期内逐日需水量,研究承德春玉米需水量、水分盈亏的年内、年际变化规律,分析气象因子对春玉米需水量的影响。结果表明：承德春玉米生育期平均需水总量、水分盈亏分别为522.5 mm和69.4 mm。在生育期内,春玉米逐日需水量的变化规律表现为先缓慢增加后减小;春玉米需水量与气象因子密切相关。

... 乳熟时期, 这与王宏等^[32]研究结果一致 ...

2005

0.0

刘晓英, 李玉中, 郝卫平. 华北主要作物需水量近50年变化趋势及原因. 农业工程学报, 2005, 21(10): 155-159

Liu X

, Li Y

, Hao W

. Trend and causes of water requirement of main crops in North China in recent 50 years. Trans CSAE, 2005, 21(10): 155-159 (in Chinese with English abstract)

... 也有研究表明黄淮海、华北地区、四川盆地玉米需水量近50年来存在显著的年际下降趋势^[31,33,34] ...

... 刘晓英等^[33]认为华北地区日照与风速减小是玉米需水量下降的主要原因 ...

1961

0.0

... 也有研究表明黄淮海、华北地区、四川盆地玉米需水量近50年来存在显著的年际下降趋势^[31,33,34] ...

2013

0.0

郝振纯, 杨荣榕, 陈新美, 陈玺, 梁之豪, 达娃顿珠. 1960-2011年长江流域潜在蒸发量的时空变化特征. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35: 408-419

Hao Z

, Yang R

, Chen X

, Chen

, Liang Z

, Da-Wa- Dun-Zhu. Tempo-spatial patterns of the potential evaporation in the Yangtze River catchment for the period 1960-2011. J Glaciol Geocryol, 2013, 35: 408-419 (in Chinese with English abstract)

摘　要：以长江流域123个气象站1960-2011年逐日气象数据为基础,应用Penman-Monteith模型,在ArcGIS环境下通过IDW插值法、TFPW-MK、R/S等方法分析了全流域潜在蒸发量变化的时空变化、趋势性和持续性,并探讨了影响潜在蒸发量的主要气象因素.结果表明:年潜在蒸发量自1960年以来至2002年呈波动减少趋势,2003-2009年呈显著增加趋势,整体为增加趋势;其中,上游高原区、上游盆地区、下游区年潜在蒸发量呈增加趋势,中游区呈下降趋势,增幅最大的是上游盆地区.四季中,春、夏、秋季和年潜在蒸发量具有持续性,未来将持续增加.最低气温、最高气温是影响长江流域潜在蒸发量增加的主要因子.

... 郝振纯等^[35]研究表明长江流域中游区域潜在蒸散量呈下降趋势, 这也可能是导致该区域玉米需水量年际间显著下降的原因 ...

2010

0.0

杨剑, 孙小舟. 西辽河流域春玉米需水量变化趋势. 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2010, 44: 691-695

Yang

, Sun X

. Climate-induced changes in spring maize water requirement in Xiliaohe river watershed. J Central China Norm Univ(Nat Sci), 2010, 44: 691-695 (in Chinese with English abstract)

西辽河流域在区域和国家粮食安全中地位重要,随着社会经济的发展,用水量增加导致水资源紧缺,作物需水量可为该区作物灌溉和区域灌溉需水量提供定量依据,采用Penman-Monteith模型和春玉米5～9月的作物系数计算了西辽河流域10个气象台站1951年～2005年春玉米需水量,采用Mann-Kendall法对全生育期需水量、生育期各月需水量和各气象要素变化趋势进行了分析,并对春玉米需水量和各气象因子进行了灰色关联分析.研究结果表明:(1)西辽河流域全生育期需水量增加和减少的站点各占1半,5月份需水量的增减对全生育期需水量的增减有重要影响;(2)最高气温、风速、日照时数或者平均气温与春玉米需水量的关联程度最高,风速和日照时数对西辽河流域春玉米需水量影响最大.

... 有研究表明玉米需水量与气温正相关^[31,36], 而刘晓英等^[33]]研究认为气温对华北地区玉米需水量的变化没有显著影响 ...

2014

0.0

王泓霏, 陈新平, 崔振岭, 孟庆锋. 气候变化对邢台夏玉米的影响及品种适应性. 应用生态学报, 2014, 25: 155-161

Wang H

, Chen X

, Cui Z

, Meng Q

. Impacts of climate change on summer maize production and adaptive selection of varieties in Xingtai County, Hebei, China. Chin J Appl Ecol, 2014, 25: 155-161 (in Chinese with English abstract)

... 而春玉米和夏玉米播种-拔节期以及秋玉米吐丝-完熟期的需水量与气温呈显著负相关, 这可能是由于该阶段气温显著升高(表4), 玉米生育期变短^[37], 需水量减少 ...

2014

0.0

闫苗祥, 杨军耀. 郑州市作物需水量影响因素主成分回归分析. 节水灌溉, 2014, (7): 22-24

Yan M

, Yang J

. The principal component regression analysis of impact factor of crop water requirement in Zhengzhou City. Water Sav Irrig, 2014, (7): 22-24 (in Chinese with English abstract)

摘　要：采用郑州市近40年气象资料，分析研究了郑州市主要作物需水量以及各作物生育期内气象因子（降雨、平均风速、平均气温、平均相对温度、日照时数、日最高气温、平均气压、平均水气压）变化趋势，用主成分回归分析法确定影响各作物的主要气象因子，并探讨了主要气象因子与相应作物需水量的关系。结果表明：玉米、水稻、棉花的作物需水量有减少趋势，小麦、花生、油菜作物需水量有增加趋势；通过主成分回归分析，得出影响水稻、玉米、棉花、花生作物需水量的主要气象因子是日照时间，影响小麦、油菜作物需水量的主要气象因子是平均相对湿度；经计算得到日照时间每减少1％，水稻、玉米、棉花和花生作物需水量分别减少2．45、2．25、2．55和1．71mm；平均相对湿度每减少1％，小麦和油菜的作物需水量分别增加1．81和1．42mm。

... 闫苗祥等^[38]研究认为, 玉米生育期内气温随年份呈增加趋势, 相对湿度随年份呈减少趋势, 本文研究表明湖北省不同种植季玉米各时期气温随年份呈显著增加趋势, 降水、风速以及相对湿度呈显著减少趋势 ...

2014

0.0

张建军, 王晓东. 淮河流域夏玉米关键期水分盈亏时空变化分析. 中国农学通报, 2014, 30(21): 100-105

Zhang J

, Wang X

. Spatial-temporal analysis of the water surplus deficit index for the summer corn’ s key period in the Huaihe Basin. Chin Agric Bull, 2014, 30(21): 100-105 (in Chinese with English abstract)

In order to analyze the water surplus deficit index for the summer corn’s key period in the Huaihe Basin, and provide the scientific guidance for the government strategy and farmers’ field management and agricultural production. Based on meteorology data from 121 sites from 1971 to 2010 in the Huaihe Basin, the crop water requirement and effective precipitation of the summer corn’s key period were calculated. The characteristic of water surplus and deficit was analyzed by water surplus deficit index. The results showed that the water requirement of summer corn’s key period showed an obvious downward trend, the descending rate of south was higher than north of the Huaihe Basin. While the descending rate of plain was higher than mountainous area. In space, the mean value of water requirement of summer corn’s key period showed an obvious latitudinal distribution, and it increased from north to south. The precipitation of summer corn’s key period had the tendency of increase, but not significant, and the mean value of precipitation in the south part of Huaihe Basin was more than that in the north, and more in the mountainous than in the plain. The effective precipitation had the same space distribution characteristics with the precipitation in corn-growing regions. The average water surplus deficit index for summer corn’s key period of each region showed a water deficit, but the tendency of yearly variation was increase. The space distribution characteristic of the mean value water surplus deficit showed an increasing trend from southwest to northeast. The water deficit was serious in the northern plain area. In this paper, we only analyzed water surplus characteristics for the summer corn’s key period, and the influence of pre precipitation was not considered. The results were preliminary, and the water surplus characteristics of summer corn require in-depth analysis in the future.

为分析淮河流域夏玉米关键期水分盈亏状况及其变化特征，为政府决策部门和农业生产者及时合理地开展田间管理和农业生产提供科学依据，利用淮河流域121个站点1971-2010年的气象资料，通过对夏玉米关键期的需水量和有效降水量的估算，采用水分盈亏指数分析了淮河流域各夏玉米种植区的水分盈亏特征。结果表明：淮河流域各种植区夏玉米关键期的需水量呈显著下降趋势，下降速度呈现出南部高于北部、平原高于山区的特点；多年平均的夏玉米关键期需水量表现出明显的纬向空间分布特征，由北向南增加。各种植区夏玉米关键期的降水量不显著增加，多年平均的夏玉米关键期降水量大致呈现南部多于北部、山区多于平原的空间分布特点；各种植区有效降水量与降水量的空间分布特点一致。各种植区夏玉米关键期均存在不同程度的水分亏缺，但水分盈亏指数呈不明显的增加趋势，水分亏缺的程度有缓和的趋势；多年平均的水分盈亏指数空间分布特征为自西南向东北增加，中部平原区大部分地区水分亏缺严重。

... 淮河流域夏玉米各生育阶段均有不同程度的水分亏缺, 尤以中部地区干旱化程度较重^[39] ...

2013

0.0

张玉芳, 王明田, 刘娟, 董孝斌, 刘琰琰. 基于水分盈亏指数的四川省玉米生育期干旱时空变化特征分析. 中国生态农业学报, 2013, 21: 236-242

Zhang Y

, Wang M

, Liu

, Dong X

, Liu Y

. Spatio- temporal characteristics of drought at different maize growth stages in Sichuan Province as determined by water budget index. Chin J Eco-Agric, 2013, 21: 236-242 (in Chinese with English abstract)

Maize, as a major grain crop in Sichuan, has contributed significantly to total grain production in the province. Sichuan Province has a complex topography and various landforms where droughts have posed serious threat to crop production. Drought is therefore a critical factor that has limited the development, growth and yield formation of maize in Sichuan. It has frequently occurred with an increasing severity in the spring and summer, and has caused the unstable yearly maize production. This paper analyzed spatio-temporal distribution of drought at different maize growth stages in order to lay the scientific basis for relevant departmental development of agricultural production programs and disaster prevention and mitigation strategies which would guide insurance agencies in formulating agricultural insurance premium rates. Daily meteorological data, collected from 144 stations in main corn production regions in Sichuan during 1970-2010, were used to calculate water budget index as an indicator for drought during corn growth season. Spatio-temporal variations in drought frequency and drought risk distribution were analyzed for each corn growth stage in 6 six main production regions (hilly area of southern basin, hilly area of central basin, plain and hill areas of western basin, mountain area around basin, equal ridge-valley region of eastern basin and mountain area of southwest Sichuan) of Sichuan Province. The results showed that since the late 1990s, drought frequency had increased in most corn production regions. The changes in drought frequency with time, however, varied from region to region. With the exception of the eastern basin, station-based mean drought frequency during maize jointing to milk-ripening stage increased across the regions. Also station-based mean drought frequency during maize milk-ripening to maturity stage increased in the southern and western basins and the basin edge. For the entire maize cultivation region in Sichuan, mild to strong drought was more prevalent than severe drought. While mild drought was most common in the hilly area of the southern basin, strong drought was prevalent in the shallow hilly area of the central basin. More severe droughts were less frequent in the low hilly areas of the western basin and in the paralleled ridge valley areas of the eastern basin. Severe drought was most frequent in the hilly areas of the southern basin of Sichuan. The risk of drought was high in the central basin and across most of the eastern basin and parts of the southern basin during corn growth season. Between jointing and milking stage, the risk of drought was high in the northern basin and across most of the central basin. From milk to maturity, there was high risk of drought during corn growth season in the north and southeast of the basin and parts of the central basin.

四川省地形地貌复杂多样, 常年多旱灾, 玉米是该省主要粮食作物之一, 在粮食生产中占有重要地位, 但干旱一直是制约四川省玉米生长发育和产量形成的重要因素, 常年春、夏、伏旱频发重发, 造成玉米年际间产量不稳定。评估四川省玉米生育期干旱状况, 分析其时空变化特征, 可为相关部门制定农业生产计划、防灾减灾措施以及保险部门确定保费率提供科学依据。本文利用四川省144个玉米种植区气象台站1970-2010年逐日气象数据, 以水分盈亏指数作为干旱指标, 分析四川省6大玉米种植区域(盆南丘陵区、盆中浅丘区、盆西平丘区、盆周边缘山地区、盆东平行岭谷区和川西南山地区)玉米生育期内干旱频率的时空变化特征及干旱发生风险度的空间分布。结果表明: 从时间变化看, 各区域干旱频率变化趋势不同, 但大部区域从20世纪90年代后期开始明显增加, 其中拔节-乳熟期干旱站均次数变化趋势除盆东平行岭谷区随年代呈下降趋势, 其余各区都呈上升趋势, 乳熟-成熟期干旱站均次数变化趋势盆南丘陵区、盆西平丘区及盆周边缘山地区呈明显上升趋势; 从空间分布看, 盆南丘陵区轻旱发生次数最高, 盆中浅丘区中旱发生次数最高, 盆西平丘区及盆东平行岭谷区发生干旱次数相对较低; 干旱发生风险度空间分布为: 全生育期干旱风险重度区主要集中在盆中浅丘区、盆东平行岭谷区大部及盆南丘陵区部分区域, 拔节-乳熟期重度风险区主要集中在盆地北部及盆中浅丘区大部, 乳熟-成熟期重度干旱区域分布在盆北、盆东南及盆中浅丘区部分区域。

... 张玉芳等^[40]研究发现四川盆地玉米全生育期干旱风险重度区主要集中在盆中浅丘区、盆东平行岭谷区大部及盆南丘陵区部分区域 ...

2009

0.0

黄晚华, 杨晓光, 曲辉辉, 冯利平, 黄彬香, 王靖, 施生锦, 武永峰, 张晓煜, 肖小平, 杨光立, 李茂松. 基于作物水分亏缺指数的春玉米季节性干旱时空特征分析. 农业工程学报, 2009, 25(8): 28-34

Huang W

, Yang X

, Qu H

, Feng L

, Huang B

, Wang

, Shi S

, Wu Y

, Zhang X

, Xiao X

, Yang G

, Li M

. Analysis of spatio-temporal characteristic on seasonal drought of spring maize based on crop water deficit index. Trans CSAE, 2009, 25(8): 28-34 (in Chinese with English abstract)

Seasonal drought is the most prominent meteorological disaster which affects spring maize production in Hunan Province. Therefore, analyzing its temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and occurring rules are important to provide technical supports for the development and reasonable layout of maize production in Hunan Province. Weather data of 96 stations from 1961 to 2007 were used to calculate the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) and crop water requirement (ETc) of maize by the method of Penman-Monteith formula commended by FAO(1998). In this paper, effects of surplus water on crop water deficit index (CWDI) were considered, and the calculating method of CWDI was modified. The frequencies of different classes of drought were calculated and their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed by the modified method of CWDI subsequently. Typical stations in different regions were selected to analyze the inter-decade variations of modified CWDI. Results indicated there were significant seasonal and spatial distribution characteristics. Drought occurred in high frequency at the stage of tasselling to silking and thereafter. Drought frequency obviously increased with backwards shift of growth stage. Light drought happened in higher frequency than medium and severe drought. In space, drought occurred with the highest frequency in Hengyang and its surrounding area in mid-south part of Hunan, followed with the east and north part, and low frequency region located in west part. Drought was more serious in 1980s, and became light in 1990s.

季节性干旱是影响湖南春玉米生产最突出的气象灾害，分析其时空分布特征和发生的规律，可为湖南春玉米生产的发展和合理布局提供技术支持。该文基于湖南省96个气象站点1961－2007年地面气象观测资料，采用FAO于1998年推荐的Penman-Monteith 方法计算了参考作物蒸散量、玉米的作物需水量。考虑盈余降水对水分亏缺指数的影响，修正了的水分亏缺指数计算方法，并依据玉米的水分亏缺指数，分析了季节性干旱发生频率的时空特征。并选取不同区域典型站点分析了水分亏缺指数年代际变化特征。结果表明，湖南春玉米生长季节内干旱呈现明显的季节性和空间区域分布特征：干旱频率较高的时段主要在玉米抽雄－吐丝阶段及其后的生育阶段，且随生育期后移干旱频率明显增加，以轻旱程度为主。空间分布特征是以湘中南的衡阳及周边一带干旱频率最高，其次为湘东、湘北一带次高，湘西等地春玉米干旱频率低。各年代之间比较，以20世纪80年代干旱较严重，90年代干旱相对较轻。

... 黄晚华等^[41]发现湖南春玉米干旱频率较高的时段主要在玉米抽雄#cod#x02013 ...

... 本文研究表明湖北不同区域各种植季玉米播种-拔节阶段主要以发生涝灾为主, 其余时期均主要发生旱灾频率较高, 与湖南省春玉米的旱涝规律较相似^[41] ...

2013

0.0

隋月, 黄晚华, 杨晓光, 李茂松. 气候变化背景下中国南方地区季节性干旱特征与适应: IV. 基于作物水分亏缺指数的玉米干旱时空特征. 应用生态学报, 2013, 24: 2590-2598

Sui

, Huang W

, Yang X

, Li M

. Characteristics and adaptation of seasonal drought in southern China under the background of global climate change: IV. Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought for maize based on crop water deficit index. Chin J Appl Ecol, 2013, 24: 2590-2598 (in Chinese with English abstract)

Based on the 1959-2008 meteorological data from 249 meteorological stations in southern China, and by using crop water deficit index (CWDI) as the agricultural drought index, this paper calculated the drought frequency and drought stations ratio in this region, and analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of drought for spring maize and summer maize during their growth periods. As for the spatial pattern of drought frequency, the drought for spring maize was more severe in the north of Huaihe River, northern Yunnan, and southern South China, but was lighter in the other regions. Except that the drought for summer maize at its late developmental stage was more severe in the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River, northern South China, and eastern Southwest China, the drought for summer maize at its other developmental stages within southern China was lighter. As for the variation trend of drought intensity and drought area, the drought intensity of spring maize from its seven-leaf stage to jointing stage in the middlelower reaches of Yangtze River increased obviously, while the drought intensity and drought area of the spring maize from its late spinning stage to milky maturity stage presented a decreasing trend. The drought of summer maize from its late jointing stage to tasseling stage and from late spinning stage to milky maturity stage all showed a decreasing trend. In Southwest China, the drought intensity and drought area for spring maize and summer maize had no clear trend. From the viewpoint of the inter-annual and decadal variability of drought intensity and drought area, there was a larger variation for the summer maize in the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River, but less difference in Southwest China.

( 1 College of Resources and Environmental Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;  2 Institute of Atmosphere Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;  3 Hunan Meteorological Research Institute, Changsha 410007, China;  4 Institute of Agriculture Resource and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)

基于1959－2008年中国南方地区249个气象台站的地面观测资料,以作物水分亏缺指数为玉米干旱指标,计算其干旱频率和干旱站次比,分析中国南方地区春玉米和夏玉米各生育阶段发生干旱的时空分布特征.结果表明: 从干旱发生频率的空间分布看,春玉米在淮北、云南北部和华南南部发生的干旱较严重,在其他地区的干旱相对较轻;除了长江中下游地区、华南北部和西南东部的夏玉米在生育后期干旱较严重,研究区域内夏玉米在其生育前期和中期干旱较轻.从干旱面积和强度的变化趋势看,长江中下游地区春玉米在七叶到拔节阶段的干旱强度明显增加,在吐丝后到乳熟阶段的干旱面积和强度呈减小趋势;夏玉米在拔节后期到抽雄阶段以及吐丝后到乳熟阶段的干旱都呈减轻趋势.西南地区春玉米、夏玉米的干旱强度和范围没有明显趋势.从干旱面积和范围的年际和年代际变化看,长江中下游地区夏玉米的变化较大,而西南地区差异较小.

... 而隋月等^[42]利用水分亏缺指数(CWDI)研究表明, 长江中下游地区春玉米在七叶到拔节阶段的干旱强度明显增加, 在吐丝后到乳熟阶段呈减小趋势 ...