长江中游地区双季稻安全生产日期的变化

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艾治勇, 郭夏宇, 刘文祥, 马国辉, 青先国. 长江中游地区双季稻安全生产日期的变化. 作物学报, 2014, 40(7): 1320-1329
AI Zhi-Yong, GUO Xia-Yu, LIU Wen-Xiang, MA Guo-Hui, QING Xian-Guo. Changes of Safe Production Dates of Double-season Rice in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2014, 40(7): 1320-1329 复制到剪切板

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长江中游地区双季稻安全生产日期的变化

艾治勇¹, 郭夏宇¹, 刘文祥¹, 马国辉¹, 青先国^2,^*

¹杂交水稻国家重点实验室 / 湖南杂交水稻研究中心, 湖南长沙 410125

²湖南农业大学, 湖南长沙 410128

^* 通讯作者(Corresponding author): 青先国, E-mail:qingxianguo@163.com

第一作者联系方式: E-mail:aizhiyongw@163.com

收稿日期:2014-04-16

基金:本研究由国家自然科学基金项目(31301264), 国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206020), 国家粮食丰产科技工程湖南专项(2011BAD16B01, 2012BAD04B10, 2013BAD07B11), 湖南省重点项目(2012SK2009)和湖南省自然科学基金项目(2013JJ5040)资助;

摘要

安全生产日期是品种和种植方式选择、温光资源高效利用和生产季节安全的重要基础。本文以长江中游地区47个气象台站的逐日日平均温度资料为基础, 分析了近50年(1960—2009)该地区50%和80%保证率的双季稻各安全生产期。发现生产中常用的80%保证率安全生产日期, 后25年(1985—2009)较前25年(1960—1984)早稻覆膜旱育秧安全播种期推迟了3 d, 早稻露地水育秧安全播种期提前了3 d, 早稻安全移栽期提前了4 d, 杂交晚籼稻安全齐穗期提前了3 d, 常规晚籼稻安全齐穗期推迟了1 d, 晚籼稻安全成熟期基本没有变化, 早稻覆膜旱育秧条件下的双季稻安全生产季节天数缩短了4 d, 早稻露地水育秧条件下的双季稻安全生产季节天数延长了1 d。本文列出了后25年各气象台站80%保证率的安全生产日期, 按就近指导原则可以作为各地双季稻生产季节安排、品种和种植方式选择的依据。对比东北、华北、黄淮等地区, 长江中游地区的气候及安全生产日期变化并不显著。除早稻露地水育秧安全播种期、早稻安全移栽期明显提前, 有利于早稻提早播种、增加产量潜力外, 其他安全生产日期的变化并不利于延长生长季节和增加产量潜力, 其中晚稻安全齐穗期还略有提前。因此, 从生产安全性的角度, 该地区不能盲目地推广直播稻, 机插稻也应重视安全生产日期的问题, 搞好品种选择和播期安排。

关键词: 长江中游; 双季稻; 安全生产日期; 气候变化

Changes of Safe Production Dates of Double-season Rice in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

AI Zhi-Yong¹, GUO Xia-Yu¹, LIU Wen-Xiang¹, MA Guo-Hui¹, QING Xian-Guo^2,^*

¹ State Key Laboratory of Hybrid Rice / Hunan Hybrid Rice Research Center, Changsha 410125, China

² Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China

Fund:

Abstract

Safe production date is an important basis for varieties and planting patterns selection, high use efficiency of heat and light resources, and production season safety. In this study, the daily average temperatures during the 50 years (1960-2009) provided by 47 meteorological stations in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River were analyzed, and several safe production dates for double-season rice with 50% and 80% guarantee rates were provided. At the 80% guarantee rate of the safe dates generally used in the double-season rice production, compared with the first 25-year period, the safe sowing dates of early-season rice seedlings with film-mulching in dry nursery in the second 25-year period were three-day delay, but those of the seedlings without film-mulching in watered nursery were three-day ahead of time; the safe transplanting dates of the seedlings shifted to three days early. The safe production dates for the early rice with film-mulching in dry nursery shortened four days, but ones for the early rice in the watered nursery was one more day. The safe full heading dates for the late-season hybridindica rice were three days early, but those for the late-seasonindicarice were one day delay, and basically, its mature date as usual. The safe production dates with 80% guarantee rate during the second 25-year period were offered by meteorological stations, which can be referred in production arrangement, varieties and planting patterns for double-season rice in every regions to the nearest guiding principles. The changes of climate and safe production date were not more significant in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River than in the Northeast and the North China. The obvious advance of the safe production dates and safe planting dates for the early rice in the watered nursery facilitates early sowing, increasing yield potential except the rest of safe production dates. Therefore, sewers should reasonably arrange layout in these regions according to the safe production dates.

Keyword: The Middle reaches of the Yangtze River; Double-season rice; Safe production date; Climate change

Show Figures

充分利用温光资源和保证生产安全是种植制度的根本要求。长江中游地区水稻生长期的光合辐射强度较东北、西北、华北等地区低, 但生长季节相对长, 因此, 充分利用生长季节、延长光合时间是该地区双季稻增产的有效途径^{[ 1]}。但是, 在充分利用生长季节的同时, 必须考虑安全生长期问题, 特别是合理安排早稻的播种期和晚稻的抽穗开花期, 早稻的播种期过早, 不能安全出苗, 过迟则会减少有效生长期影响产量; 晚稻抽穗开花期安排过早势必影响产量潜力, 过迟则易受后期“寒露风”等低温天气影响, 不能安全齐穗与成熟^{[ 2, 3, 4]}。因此, 研究当前气候条件下双季稻安全生产日期问题对水稻种植业应对气候变化具有重要意义。

近年来全球气候变暖已成为不争的事实^{[ 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11]}。近100年来全球平均气温上升了0.74℃^{[ 8]}, 1906—2005年我国年平均气温上升(0.78±0.27)℃^{[ 11, 12]}, 湖南省年平均气温自1961年以来上升了0.42℃^{[ 13]}, 湖北省与江西省自20世纪90年代以来也增温明显^{[ 14, 15]}。这种气候变化对农业生产特别是作物生产造成了不可忽视的影响^{[ 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27]}, 如江苏省近25年各地水稻的安全齐穗期较以前普遍延迟3~4 d^{[ 28]}, 玉米、小麦等作物的物候期也发生了明显变化。目前, 尚未见气候变化背景下长江中游地区双季稻安全生产季节变化的系统报道。

近年来洞庭湖地区出现双季晚稻直播, 同时, 双季晚稻机插也发展迅速。由于直播与机插较抛秧和手插的播期推迟15~30 d, 这使晚稻安全齐穗与安全成熟问题更加突出^{[ 28]}。由于缺乏对该区域气候变化特点、安全生产期变化的全面分析, 也缺乏相应的安全生产的理论指导, 其生产安全性与产量稳定性已引起各部门的高度关注。本研究基于我国长江中游地区年度的47个气象台站1960—2009年的逐年日平均温度完整资料, 将1960— 2009年划分为1960—1984年(时段I)和1985—2009年(时段II) 2个时段^{[ 29]}, 分析近50年来该区域早稻安全播种期、早稻安全移栽期、晚稻安全齐穗期、晚稻安全成熟期等安全生产日期以及双季稻安全生产期天数变化及其对双季稻生产的可能影响, 以期为该区域当前双季稻生产合理选用品种、安排播期以及选择种植方式等提供依据与指导。

1 材料与方法

1.1 数据来源与整理

本文所用的逐日日平均温度来自中国气象局国家气象信息中心, 包括湖南、湖北和江西3省的63个气象台站(图1)。经整理剔除年代资料不完整的台站, 选取其中符合研究要求的47个气象台站的1960—2009年的逐日日平均温度资料分析研究。

	Figure Option View Download New Window
	图1 长江中游双季稻区气象台站及其海拔分布Fig. 1 Meteorological stations and altitude distribution in double- season rice planting area in the Middle Reach of the Yangtze River

1.2 数据计算方法

1.2.1 安全日期采用5日滑动平均法对各气象台站的逐日日平均温度进行处理, 确定稳定通过某界限温度的日期, 再用不连续出现3 d以上不低于该界限温度的办法确定安全生产日期^{[ 30]}。用稳定通过8℃以上, 不连续出现3 d以上日均温低于8℃的初始日期作为早稻覆膜旱育秧的安全播种期; 用稳定通过12℃以上, 不连续出现3 d以上日均温低于12℃的初始日期作为早稻露地水育秧的安全播种期; 用稳定通过15℃以上, 不连续出现3 d以上日均温低于15℃的初始日期作为早稻的安全移栽期; 用稳定通过23℃以上, 不连续出现3 d以上日均温低于23℃的终止日期作为杂交晚稻的安全齐穗期; 用稳定通过22℃以上, 不连续出现3 d以上日均温低于22℃的终止日期作为常规晚稻的安全齐穗期; 用稳定通过15℃以上, 不连续出现3 d以上日均温低于15℃的终止日期作为晚稻的安全成熟期^{[ 31, 32]}。

1.2.2 各保证率的安全日期根据上述方法, 分别求得各生产季节的安全日期, 分近50年(1960—2009)、前25年(1960—1984)、后25年(1985—2009) 3个时段分别统计50%、80%保证率的安全日期, 50%保证率的安全日期即各时段内安全日期的平均值, 80%保证率的安全日期采用经验频率法计算^{[ 30]}。

1.2.3 双季稻安全生产季节天数双季稻安全生产期天数以早稻安全播种日期至晚稻安全成熟日期的天数表示, 分别用50%、80%保证率的早稻安全播种期至晚稻安全成熟期之间的天数表示其安全生产期天数。

1.2.4 气候变化倾向率采用最小二乘法, 计算安全生产日期与年度的线性回归系数a, 安全生产季节的变化可用一次线性方程表示^{[ 20, 33]}, 即

, t = 1, 2, …, n(年)

式中为安全生产日期拟合值, a为回归系数。以 a×10为气候变化倾向率(单位: d 10a^-1), 表示安全生产日期每10年的变化速率。

1.3 空间插值与图形绘制

采用ArcGIS9.2中Geostatistical Analyst模块, 用反距离权重插值方法(inverse distance weighting, IDW)对各安全生产期的气候变化倾向率以及安全生产期天数进行插值, 设定cell size参数为500 m, 生成空间栅格数据, 然后使用Spatial Analyst Tools编辑修改, 最后输出各安全生产期的气候变化倾向率以及安全生产季节天数的地理图^{[ 34, 35, 36]}。

2 结果与分析

2.1 早稻安全播种期

近50年来, 早稻无论是以覆膜旱育秧还是以露地水育秧的栽培方式, 安全播种期均提前, 露地水育秧的安全播种期提前幅度与区域面积均大于覆膜旱育秧。早稻覆膜旱育秧的安全播种期的变化倾向率在-3.2~0.4 d 10a^-1之间, 平均为-0.9 d 10a^-1, 提前区域面积占长江中游地区面积的87.2% (图2-A)。早稻露地水育秧的安全播种期变化倾向率在-2.9~2.4 d 10a^-1之间, 平均为-1.6 d 10a^-1, 提前区域面积占长江中游地区面积的97.9% (图2-B)。

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	图2 长江中游早稻安全播种期变化倾向率分布Fig. 2 Distribution of change trend rate of safe sowing date for early-season rice in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

早稻覆膜旱育秧50%保证率安全播种期在3月11日左右, 后25年较前25年提前了约1 d左右, 80%保证率安全播种期在3月22日左右, 后25年较前25年推迟约2 d左右, 这可能与后25年的平均气温在早春稳定通过8℃的过程中表现为反复多变的特点有关。露地水育秧50%保证率安全播种期在3月31日左右, 后25年较前25年平均提前了约3 d, 80%保证率安全播种期在4月11日左右, 后25年较前25年平均提前了约3 d (表1)。露地水育秧后25年安全播种期比前25年提前的幅度大于覆膜旱育秧, 这可能是后25年早春温度稳定通过8℃以后, 迅速回升有关, 导致露地水育秧安全播种期提前。

表1 长江中游双季稻的安全生产日期及其变化 Table 1 Safe production dates and change of double-season rice in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

安全生产期 Safe date	地区 Region	50%保证率 50% guarantee rate				80%保证率 80% guarantee rate
安全生产期 Safe date	地区 Region	50年 50 years (m/d)	前25年 1st 25 years (m/d)	后25年 2nd 25 years (m/d)	变化天数 Changed days (d)	50年 50 years (m/d)	前25年 1st 25 years (m/d)	后25年 2nd 25 years (m/d)	变化天数 Changed days (d)
早稻覆膜旱育秧安全播种期 DNF	湖南Hunan	3/12	3/12	3/13	+1	3/23	3/23	3/24	+1
	湖北Hubei	3/13	3/14	3/12	-2	3/24	3/24	3/25	+1
	江西Jiangxi	3/7	3/7	3/6	-1	3/20	3/16	3/22	+6
	长江中游MRYR	3/11	3/11	3/10	-1	3/22	3/22	3/24	+2
早稻露地水育秧安全播种期 WNC	湖南Hunan	4/2	4/3	3/31	-3	4/12	4/13	4/9	-4
	湖北Hubei	4/2	4/4	3/31	-4	4/12	4/13	4/11	-2
	江西Jiangxi	3/28	3/29	3/26	-3	4/7	4/6	4/6	0
	长江中游MRYR	3/31	4/2	3/30	-3	4/11	4/11	4/8	-3
早稻安全移栽期 STDER	湖南Hunan	4/17	4/19	4/16	-3	5/1	5/1	4/28	-3
	湖北Hubei	4/19	4/22	4/16	-6	5/2	5/3	4/30	-3
	江西Jiangxi	4/11	4/13	4/9	-4	4/23	4/25	4/20	-5
	长江中游MRYR	4/16	4/18	4/14	-4	4/29	4/30	4/26	-4
杂交晚籼稻安全齐穗期 SFHLHR	湖南Hunan	9/8	9/9	9/7	-2	9/1	9/4	8/31	-4
	湖北Hubei	9/4	9/5	9/4	-1	8/28	8/30	8/25	-5
	江西Jiangxi	9/18	9/18	9/18	0	9/10	9/10	9/10	0
	长江中游MRYR	9/10	9/10	9/9	-1	9/3	9/4	9/1	-3
常规晚籼稻安全齐穗期 SFHDLR	湖南Hunan	9/15	9/14	9/15	+1	9/7	9/8	9/7	-1
	湖北Hubei	9/11	9/10	9/12	+2	9/4	9/4	9/5	+1
	江西Jiangxi	9/23	9/22	9/24	+2	9/14	9/14	9/16	+2
	长江中游MRYR	9/16	9/15	9/17	+2	9/8	9/8	9/9	+1
晚稻安全成熟期 SMDLR	湖南Hunan	10/25	10/25	10/26	+1	10/12	10/14	10/14	0
	湖北Hubei	10/22	10/21	10/22	+1	10/10	10/11	10/11	0
	江西Jiangxi	11/2	11/2	11/2	0	10/22	10/24	10/23	-1
	长江中游MRYR	10/27	10/26	10/27	+1	10/14	10/16	10/16	0

变化天数栏中“+”表示推迟, “-”表示提前, 数字表示推迟或提前的天数。

+ or - before the number in the changed days column means delaying or advancing, and the number means changed days. DNF: safe sowing date of early-season rice seedling raised in dry nursery covered with film; WNC: safe sowing date of early-season rice seedling raised in wet nursery without covering; STDER: safe transplanting date of early-season rice; SFHLHR: safe full heading date of late-season hybrid indica rice; SFHDLR: safe full heading date of late-season inbred indica rice; SMDLR: safe maturity date of late-season rice. MRYR: the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River. m/d: month/day.

表1 长江中游双季稻的安全生产日期及其变化 Table 1 Safe production dates and change of double-season rice in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

2.2 早稻安全移栽期

近50年来, 早稻的安全移栽期呈提前趋势, 变化倾向率在-3.8~ -0.7 d 10a^-1之间, 平均为-2.1 d 10a^-1, 即平均每10年提前2 d。长江中游各地均有不同程度的提前, 以湖北中东大部、江西西北部、湖南西南部及西北小部的提前幅度较大(图3)。早稻50%保证率安全移栽期平均在4月16日左右, 后25年较前25年平均提前了4 d。早稻80%保证率安全移栽期平均在4月29日左右, 后25年较前25年平均提前了4 d (表1)。

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	图3 长江中游早稻安全移栽期变化倾向率分布Fig. 3 Distribution of change trend rate of safe transplanting date for early-season rice in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

2.3 晚稻安全齐穗期

近50年来, 杂交晚籼稻安全齐穗期的变化倾向率在-2.9~1.0 d 10a^-1之间, 平均-0.8 d 10a^-1, 即平均每10年提前0.8 d, 提前的区域面积占长江中游地区面积的80.9%, 以湖北西部、湖南中北部与中西部提前趋势明显, 而其他区域提前不明显, 其中部分地区存在延迟趋势(图4-A)。常规晚籼稻安全齐穗期的变化倾向率在-1.8~2.0 d 10a^-1之间, 平均0.01 d 10a^-1, 湖北中西部和湖南中西部提前趋势明显, 而湖南中东部、湖北中东部以及江西大部延迟的趋势明显, 其中以武汉为中心的湖北中东部地区延迟趋势最为明显(图4-B)。

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	图4 长江中游晚稻安全齐穗期变化倾向率分布Fig. 4 Distribution of change trend rate of safe full heading date for late-season rice in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

杂交晚籼稻50%保证率安全齐穗期平均在9月10日左右, 后25年较前25年平均提前了1 d, 由9月10日提前至9月9日。杂交晚籼稻80%保证率安全齐穗期平均在9月3日左右, 后25年较前25年平均提前了3 d, 由9月4日提前至9月1日。常规晚籼稻50%保证率安全齐穗期平均在9月16日左右, 后25年较前25年平均延迟了2 d, 由9月15日延迟至9月17日, 常规晚籼稻80%保证率安全齐穗期平均在9月8日左右, 后25年较前25年平均延迟了1 d, 由9月8日延迟至9月9日(表1)。

2.4 晚稻安全成熟期

晚籼稻的安全成熟期呈延迟趋势, 变化倾向率在-0.7~2.8 d 10a^-1之间, 平均1.1 d 10a^-1, 即平均每10年安全成熟期延迟1 d。延迟的区域面积占长江中游地区面积的97.9%, 以湖北中东大部和西北部、湖南大部延迟较明显, 而江西大部不明显(图5)。晚稻50%保证率安全成熟期平均在10月27日左右, 后25年较前25年平均延迟了1 d。晚稻80%保证率安全成熟期平均在10月14日左右, 后25年与前25年基本没有变化(表1)。

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	图5 长江中游晚稻安全成熟期变化倾向率分布Fig. 5 Distribution of change trend rate of safe maturity date for late-season rice in the Middle Reach of the Yangtze River

2.5 双季稻安全生长季天数

251671040从图6可以看出, 早稻覆膜旱育秧条件下双季稻安全生长季节天数的变化倾向率在-0.02~0.5 d 10a^-1之间, 平均为0.2 d 10a^-1, 即平均每10年增加0.2 d,前25年安全生长季天数在199~259 d之间, 平均为229 d, 后25年在207~262 d之间, 平均为230 d。早稻露地水育秧条件下双季稻安全生长季节天数的变化倾向率在0.05~ 0.5 d 10a^-1之间, 平均为0.3 d 10a^-1, 即平均每10年增加0.3 d, 前25年安全生长季天数在178~237 d之间, 平均为207 d, 后25年在186~236 d之间, 平均为211 d。

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	图6 长江中游双季稻安全生长季节天数的变化倾向率分布Fig. 6 Distribution of change trend rate of the days of safe growth season of double-season rice in the Middle Reach of the Yangtze River

早稻覆膜旱育秧条件下50%保证率双季稻安全生长季节天数平均为230 d左右, 后25年较前25年平均增加了1 d。80%保证率双季稻安全生长季节天数平均为214 d左右, 后25年较前25年平均减少了4 d。早稻露地水育秧条件下50%保证率双季稻安全生长季节天数平均为209 d左右, 后25年较前25年平均增加了4 d。80%保证率双季稻安全生长季节天数平均为195 d左右, 后25年较前25年平均增加了1 d (表2)。早稻覆膜旱育秧的双季稻安全生产季节天数减少, 而露地水育秧的双季稻安全生产季节天数增加, 主要是两种育秧方式的安全播种期的不同变化所致。

表2 长江中游双季稻各保证率的安全生产季节天数 Table 2 Days of safe growth season with different guarantee rate for double-season rice in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River (d)

2.6 双季稻安全生产日期

从温光资源高效利用以及生产安全两方面考虑, 以后25年各地80%保证率的安全日期, 再结合各地安全生产日期的变化倾向率插值图, 得到各地双季稻的安全生产日期(表3), 按就近原则用于指导当前各地的品种及种植方式选择、生产季节安排和品种搭配模式。在应用中, 就近指导原则可以避免非双季稻区结果的影响, 从而提高研究结果对生产指导的准确性。双季稻非适宜种植区的结果可能影响最终的平均结果, 类似湖南桑植、湖北房县、湖北枣阳等地, 按晚稻安全齐穗的温度指标计算, 其安全齐穗期出现在8月份, 实际上这些区域没有也不适宜于双季稻种植。但是, 本文结果反应出的变化趋势与适宜种植区是一致的, 不影响各地各安全生产日期的总体变化趋势。

表3 长江中游地区80%保证率下的双季稻安全生产日期 Table 3 Safe production date with 80% guarantee rate of double-season rice in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River (month/day)

续表3 长江中游地区80%保证率下的双季稻安全生产日期 Continue Table 3 Safe production date with 80% guarantee rate of double-season rice in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River (month/day)

地理位置 Region	早稻覆膜旱育秧安全播种期 DNF	早稻露地水育秧安全播种期 WNC	早稻安全移栽期 STDER	杂交晚籼稻安全齐穗期 SFHLHR	常规晚籼稻安全齐穗期 SFHDLR	晚稻安全成熟期 SMDLR
湖北Hubei
巴东badong	3/17	4/7	4/27	8/27	9/6	10/15
房县Fangxian	3/27	4/22	5/8	8/9	8/16	10/2
黄石Huangshi	3/24	4/7	4/27	9/10	9/12	10/16
嘉鱼Jiayu	3/26	4/10	5/1	9/4	9/12	10/11
荆州Jingzhou	3/26	4/11	4/27	8/29	9/9	10/10
来凤Laifeng	3/25	4/15	4/30	8/20	9/1	10/15
老河口Laohekou	3/26	4/12	4/29	8/16	9/1	10/12
麻城Macheng	3/25	4/11	5/1	8/28	9/12	10/10
天门Tianmen	3/25	4/10	5/1	8/28	9/10	10/11
武汉Wuhan	3/27	4/11	5/1	8/30	9/11	10/10
宜昌Yichang	3/25	4/6	4/30	8/28	9/9	10/15
英山Yingshan	3/27	4/9	5/2	8/29	9/7	10/15
枣阳Zaoyang	3/28	4/13	5/2	8/16	9/3	10/11
钟祥Zhongxiang	3/26	4/12	5/1	8/23	9/3	10/11
平均Average	3/25	4/11	4/30	8/25	9/5	10/11
江西Jiangxi
波阳Boyang	3/25	4/6	4/30	9/10	9/20	10/21
赣县Ganxian	3/17	4/4	4/13	9/15	9/21	11/1
广昌Guangchang	3/22	4/4	4/16	9/14	9/19	10/25
贵溪Guixi	3/20	4/3	4/18	9/14	9/21	10/28
吉安Ji’an	3/24	4/6	4/20	9/11	9/15	10/25
景德镇Jingdezhen	3/22	4/9	4/16	9/7	9/18	10/22
南昌Nanchang	3/25	4/7	4/21	9/10	9/20	10/21
南城Nancheng	3/25	4/7	4/16	9/11	9/14	10/20
遂川Suichuan	3/21	4/6	4/14	9/11	9/15	10/25
修水Xiushui	3/25	4/12	4/30	9/1	9/8	10/16
寻乌Xunwu	3/6	4/1	4/11	9/15	9/19	10/31
宜春Yichun	3/26	4/6	4/27	9/5	9/10	10/20
玉山Yushan	3/25	4/10	4/26	9/8	9/11	10/21
樟树Zhangshu	3/26	4/5	4/22	9/9	9/17	10/21
平均Average	3/22	4/6	4/20	9/10	9/16	10/23
总平均Total average	3/24	4/8	4/26	9/1	9/9	10/16

DNF: safe sowing date of early-season rice seedling raised covered with film in dry nursery; WNC: safe sowing date of early-season rice seedling raised in wet nursery without covering; STDER: safe transplanting date of early-season rice; SFHLHR: safe full heading date of late-season hybrid indica rice; SFHDLR: safe full heading date of late-season inbred indica rice; SMDLR: safe maturity date of late-season rice.

3 讨论

3.1 长江中游地区不能盲从气候变暖而选用安全性低的品种或种植方式

近年来, 长江中游地区直播和机插稻发展迅速, 甚至在洞庭湖还有晚稻直播的发展趋势, 该区域直播稻和机插稻发展迅速的原因当然与农村劳动力转移、种稻比较效益低、直播与机插轻简高效等因素有关, 其中也与全球气候变暖的认识导向有关。相关研究表明直播与机插较传统的抛秧和手插的播期要推迟15~30 d, 特别是直播可能要推迟更多, 这使晚稻安全齐穗与安全成熟问题更加突出^{[ 28]}。如果在温光资源和生长季节天数没有显著增加的情况下, 直播稻可能会造成有限的温光资源浪费, 也很难取得与移栽稻或抛秧稻相当的产量。本研究表明, 长江中游地区早稻露地水育秧的安全播种期(可作为早稻直播的安全播种期)平均仅提前了3 d, 杂交晚籼稻的安全齐穗期不仅没有推迟还平均提前了3 d, 晚籼稻的安全成熟期也没有明显推迟, 这充分说明长江中游地区并没有像其他地区那样, 受全球气候变化大背景的影响, 温光资源与安全生长季节明显增加。特别是晚稻的安全齐穗期还略提前, 杂交晚稻的安全齐穗期提前更明显, 该结论基本符合该地区冬暖夏凉的气候变化事实, 也与该地区其他有关双季稻安全生产研究的结果基本吻合^{[ 13]}, 这更增加了晚稻生产的风险。因此, 长江中游地区并不具备发展双季稻种植制度下直播稻的气候资源条件, 在该地区发展直播稻应相当慎重, 不能盲从气候变暖的认识导向大力发展直播稻, 特别是晚稻直播, 其生产的安全性就更低, 决不能因为一年或二年的成功而盲目采用或推广。此外, 该地区晚稻机插秧以及移栽稻和抛秧均要根据实际情况合理选用品种、安排播期及搭配模式, 不能盲目以为气候变暖大力推广应用迟配迟的熟期搭配方式。

气候变化包括辐射、温度、水分、光照等多个气象因素, 对农业生产也是多个因素的综合影响。长江中游双季稻区为我国南方的三熟制区, 双季稻的安全生产季节主要受温度的影响, 因此, 本文主要研究了气候变化背景下温度的变化对长江中游双季稻关键生产时期的安全性影响。研究结果对双季稻的安全生产具有一定的指导作用, 但对某些不以温度为安全生产首要限制因子的地区, 应在考虑温度影响的同时, 因地制宜地考虑水分资源、品种改变、经济社会、政策等方面因素的影响。

3.2 杂交晚籼稻安全齐穗期明显提前对生产实践的指导意义有待探讨

长江中游双季稻区的气候变暖趋势已是事实, 在此背景下, 晚稻的安全齐穗期应当会延迟, 正如江苏省近50年粳稻安全齐穗期的变化那样, 普遍延迟^{[ 28]}。然而, 在本研究中发现长江中游晚稻特别是杂交晚籼稻的安全齐穗期并没有普遍延迟。分析其原因, 可能与长江中游地区气候变暖以冬季为主的冬暖夏凉气候变化特点有关。笔者在分析中发现后25年安全齐穗期出现在8月份的频次显著高于前25年(图7), 这可能是导致后25年平均安全齐穗期提前以及安全齐穗期变异的标准差增大的原因。那么, 是否可以考虑8月份的低温对杂交晚籼稻安全齐穗没有影响或影响不大, 将出现在8月份的年份剔除, 在9月至10月确定其安全齐穗期？这一方法是否符合生产实践和调整之后的杂交晚籼稻安全齐穗期变化特点有待进一步讨论研究。

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	图7 主要双季稻区杂交晚籼稻安全齐穗温度指标出现在8月份的年份频次Fig. 7 Number of years existing the index temperature 23℃ in August for safe fill heading of late-season hybrid indica rice in main double-season rice planting area

3.3 双季晚稻品种的耐寒性及安全齐穗温度指标有待深入研究

本研究结果表明, 近25年来长江中游双季晚稻的安全齐穗期并未因气候变暖而明显延迟, 甚至略有提前, 此结果在黄晚华等^{[ 13]}的研究中也得到了证实。然而, 大多数水稻科研工作者与技术推广人员认为近年来的“寒露风”越来越不明显, 因抽穗开花期低温导致的晚稻安全齐穗问题越来越少, 这一现象与晚稻安全齐穗期没有变化甚至略有提前的结论似乎有点不相符。这可能是由于该区域双季晚稻品种的耐寒性发生变化, 或安全齐穗温度指标不适用于当前品种。本文安全齐穗期分析所用的低温指标, 是借鉴30多年前, 由高亮之先生等界定的温度指标, 即常规籼稻22℃、杂交籼稻23℃。然而, 30多年来, 长江中游双季晚稻品种与全国一样, 不论是品种类型还是品种的生产特性均发生了巨大的变化。当前主体品种较30多年前品种的耐寒性是否发生了变化。以往品种安全齐穗的22℃、23℃温度指标是否适用于当前品种。均有待探讨, 以提出当前品种的安全齐穗温度指标。

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

作者已声明无竞争性利益关系。

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[20]	赵锦, 杨晓光, 刘志娟, 成迪芳, 王文峰, 陈阜. 全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响: II. 南方地区气候要素变化特征及对种植制度界限可能影响. 中国农业科学, 2010, 43: 1860-1867 Zhao J, Yang X G, Liu Z J, Cheng D F, Wang W F, Chen F. The possible effect of global climate changes on cropping systems boundary in China: II. The characteristics of climatic variables and the possible effect on northern limits of cropping systems in South China. Sci Agric Sin, 2010, 43: 1860-1867 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:2] [CJCR: 1.889]
[21]	郭建平, 高素华, 刘玲. 气象条件对作物品质和产量影响的试验研究. 气候与环境研究, 2001, 6: 361-367 Guo J P, Gao S H, Liu L. An experimental study of the impacts of meteorological condition on crops qualities and yield. Climatic Environ Res, 2001, 6: 361-367 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:1]
[22]	王静, 杨晓光, 李勇, 刘志娟, 张晓煜. 气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化: VI. 黑龙江省三江平原地区降水资源变化特征及其对春玉米生产的可能影响. 应用生态学报, 2011, 22: 1511-1522 Wang J, Yang X G, Li Y, Liu Z J, Zhang X Y. Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of global climate change: VI. Change characteristics of precipitation resource and its possible effect on maize production in Sanjiang Plain of Heilongjiang Province. Chin J Appl Ecol, 2011, 22: 1511-1522 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 1.742]
[23]	李克南, 杨晓光, 刘志娟, 王文峰, 陈阜. 全球气候变化对中国种植制度可能影响分析: III. 中国北方地区气候资源变化特征及其对种植制度界限的可能影响. 中国农业科学, 2010, 43: 2088-2097 Li K N, Yang X G, Liu Z J, Wang W F, Chen F. Analysis of the potential influence of global climate change on cropping systems in China: III. The change characteristics of climatic resources in Northern China and its potential influence on cropping systems. Sci Agric Sin, 2010, 43: 2088-2097(in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 1.889]
[24]	杨晓光, 刘志娟, 陈阜. 全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响: I. 气候变暖对中国种植制度北界和粮食产量可能影响的分析. 中国农业科学, 2010, 43: 329-336 Yang X G, Liu Z J, Chen F. The possible effects of global warming on Cropping Systems in China: I. The possible effects of climate warming on northern limits of cropping systems and crop yields in China. Sci Agric Sin, 2010, 43: 329-336 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 1.889]
[25]	李勇, 杨晓光, 王文峰, 陈阜. 全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响: V. 气候变暖对中国热带作物种植北界和寒害风险的影响分析. 中国农业科学, 2010, 43: 2477-2484 Li Y, Yang X G, Wang W F, Chen F. The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in China: V. The possible effects of climate warming on geographical shift in safe northern limit of tropical crops and the risk analysis of cold damage in China. Sci Agric Sin, 2010, 43: 2477-2484 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 1.889]
[26]	刘志娟, 杨晓光, 王文峰, 赵俊芳, 张海林, 陈阜. 全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响: IV. 未来气候变暖对东北三省春玉米种植北界的可能影响. 中国农业科学, 2010, 43: 2280-2291 Liu Z J, Yang X G, Wang W F, Zhao J F, Zhang H L, Chen F. The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in China: IV. The possible impact of future climatic warming on the northern limits of spring maize in three provinces of Northeast China. Sci Agric Sin, 2010, 43: 2280-2291 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 1.889]
[27]	杨晓光, 刘志娟, 陈阜. 全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响: VI. 未来气候变化对中国种植制度北界的可能影响. 中国农业科学, 2011, 44: 1562-1570 Yang X G, Liu Z J, Chen F. The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in China: VI. Possible effects of future climate change on northern limits of cropping system in China. Sci Agric Sin, 2011, 44: 1562-1570 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 1.889]
[28]	张祖建, 张洪熙, 杨建昌, 宋云生, 赵步洪, 季红娟, 朱庆森. 江苏近50年粳稻安全齐穗期的变化. 作物学报, 2011, 37: 146-151 Zhang Z J, Zhang H X, Yang J C, Song Y S, Zhao B H, Ji H J, Zhu Q S. Changes of safe dates for full heading in japonica rice over past 50 years in Jiangsu Province. Acta Agron Sin, 2011, 37: 146-151(in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:4] [CJCR: 1.667]
[29]	任国玉, 郭军, 徐铭志, 初子莹, 张莉, 邹旭凯, 李庆祥, 刘小宁. 近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征. 气象学报, 2005, 63: 942-956 Ren G Y, Guo J, Xu M Z, Chu Z Y, Zhang L, Zou X K, Li Q X, Liu X N. Climate changes of China mainland over the past half century. Acta Meteorol Sin, 2005, 63: 942-956 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:1] [JCR: 0.799] [CJCR: 0.363]
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[31]	涂方旭. 广西水稻主要生育期气候条件分析. 广西农业科学, 2006, 37(4): 370-373 Tu F X. Analysis on climate conditions in main rice growth and development stages in Guangxi. Guangxi Agric Sci, 2006, 37(4): 370-373 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 0.8303]
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[33]	沈瑱, 曾燕, 肖卉, 费松. 江苏省日照时数的气候特征分析. 气象科学, 2007, 27: 425-429 Shen Z, Zeng Y, Xiao H, Fei S. Changes of sunshine hours in the recent 40 years over Jiangsu Province. Sci Meteorol Sin, 2007, 27: 425-429 (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 1.293]
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1984

0.0

1.889

. 1984, 17(1):17-23

Light and resources and potential productive of rice in China

江苏省农业科学院

... 长江中游地区水稻生长期的光合辐射强度较东北、西北、华北等地区低, 但生长季节相对长, 因此, 充分利用生长季节、延长光合时间是该地区双季稻增产的有效途径^[1] ...

2000

0.0

... 晚稻抽穗开花期安排过早势必影响产量潜力, 过迟则易受后期“寒露风”等低温天气影响, 不能安全齐穗与成熟^[2,3,4] ...

2001

0.0

. 2001, 3(4):20-26

Cultural theory and techniques for the super-high-yielding of double rice under tri-cropping system

本研究以双季稻三熟制≥10℃的临界积温为基本立足点,以双季稻每hm2单产18t和增产30%～50%为超高产目标,从宏观和微观的角度研究了三熟制双季稻超高产的理论与配套技术.主要结果如下:①在光热资源被认为仅能作早三熟的中低产地区,三熟制双季稻仍具有超高产潜力.② LAI光合适期是三熟制双季稻超高产的基础栽培理论之一.利用不同育秧方式增加积温、调整生产重心、扩大叶面积指数、本田期迅速创建一个较大的叶面积指数,促进水稻群体尽早进入光合适期是挖掘光能生产潜力的核心.③组装形成了三熟制双季稻超高产栽培的高起点、中群体、壮根、壮穗、满负荷运转的综合配套技术体系.④继承性地研创了"旱育软盘抛寄两段秧"新型育秧方式.

... 晚稻抽穗开花期安排过早势必影响产量潜力, 过迟则易受后期“寒露风”等低温天气影响, 不能安全齐穗与成熟^[2,3,4] ...

1999

0.0

... 晚稻抽穗开花期安排过早势必影响产量潜力, 过迟则易受后期“寒露风”等低温天气影响, 不能安全齐穗与成熟^[2,3,4] ...

1994

0.0

... 近年来全球气候变暖已成为不争的事实^{[5,6,7,8,9,10,11]} ...

2000

0.0

... 近年来全球气候变暖已成为不争的事实^{[5,6,7,8,9,10,11]} ...

2000

38.597

0.0

... 近年来全球气候变暖已成为不争的事实^{[5,6,7,8,9,10,11]} ...

2001

0.0

... 近年来全球气候变暖已成为不争的事实^{[5,6,7,8,9,10,11]} ...

... 74℃^[8], 1906—2005年我国年平均气温上升(0 ...

2004

0.0

... 近年来全球气候变暖已成为不争的事实^{[5,6,7,8,9,10,11]} ...

2007

0.0

... 近年来全球气候变暖已成为不争的事实^{[5,6,7,8,9,10,11]} ...

2009

0.0

1.1012

. 2009, 25(5):1-6

Future changes of air temperature division in China under global warming

1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 2. Jilin Meteorological Observatory, Changchun 134001, China

Based on 13 models of IPCC AR4 under SRES A2 scenario and monthly mean air temperature from 1961 to 1990 in China, current and future divisions of air temperature were evaluated. The results indicate that the divisions based on annual mean air temperature are similar in western China during three periods (from 1961 to 1990, from 2021 to 2050 and from 2071 to 2097), while the divisions are remarkably different in eastern China. The eastern China is divided into southern and northern districts by North China division belt during 1961-1990. North China division belt moves northward during 2021-2050, and it results in the appearance of another division belt in north of Guangdong province and Guangxi province. As a result, eastern China would be divided into three divisions, i.e. northeast division, North China and central China division, South China division. North division belt disappears during 2071-2097 and south division belt moves northward to Yangtze River, so eastern China is still divided into southern and northern divisions. The division changes result from the difference of annual mean air temperature variability and range according to the time changes of annual mean air temperature during the different periods of various divisions.

利用SRES A2情景下IPCC AR4的13个模式资料，结合我国月平均温度观测资料对当前和未来我国气温的分区进行对比研究。结果表明：1961-1990、2021-2050年和2071-2097年三个时段年平均气温分区在我国西部变化不大，而在我国东部发生了显著变化。1961-1990年我国东部被华北分区带分为南、北两个区；2021-2050年由于1961-1990年间的华北分区带北移，而在两广以北同时出现另一分区带，使得该时段我国东部分成东北区、华北和华中区以及华南区三个区，在2071-2097年北方分区带消失，而南方的分区带北移至长江一带，使得该时段我国东部仍可分为南、北两区。通过比较三个时段不同分区年平均温度时间变化发现，导致分区变化的原因主要是由于在不同时段各分区年平均温度的变率和增温幅度不一致所致。

... 近年来全球气候变暖已成为不争的事实^{[5,6,7,8,9,10,11]} ...

... 27)℃ ^[11,12], 湖南省年平均气温自1961年以来上升了0 ...

2009

0.0

. 2009, 5(2):71-78

Comparative analysis of the time series of surface air temperature over China for the last 100 years

1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University2. National Climate Center3. National Climate Center

Temperature change is of great importance in global change science. Remarkable progress has been made in studies of the temperature change in China during the recent 100 years or more. Some time series provide surface air temperatures averaged over China. Correlations between the series range from 0.73 to 0.97. The achievements mainly include the following: improving the quality, increasing the coverage of data, raising the homogeneity of time series and enlarging the reliability of the results etc. Analysis shows that the warming rate of annual mean temperature in China during 1906-2005 is (0.78±0.27)℃; 2007 is probably the warmest year. However, most of the series except those with complete coverage mainly reflect the temperature change over eastern China before the 1920s or 1930s, so caution must be taken in examination of temperature change.

温度变化是全球变化研究中非常重要的基础性问题，在中国近百年温度变化方面，十几年来已取得了明显进展，这首先表现在建立了若干条全国平均气温序列，而几条主要序列间的相关系数在0.73～0.97之间。同时，这些进展也表现在基础资料质量提高、空间覆盖面扩大、序列均一性改善以及结果可靠性提高等方面。对多序列进行综合分析得到的新结果显示，1906-2005年中国的年平均气温上升了（0.78±0.27）℃，2007年是我国近百年来最暖的一年；代表性分析显示，现有的几条中国温度序列中除覆盖完整的序列外，其他序列在1920或1930年代以前可能主要反映中国东部变化情况，但在此之后则能较好地代表全国大部分地区的气候变化特征。

... 27)℃ ^[11,12], 湖南省年平均气温自1961年以来上升了0 ...

2009

0.0

0.451

... 42℃ ^[13], 湖北省与江西省自20世纪90年代以来也增温明显^[14,15] ...

... 特别是晚稻的安全齐穗期还略提前, 杂交晚稻的安全齐穗期提前更明显, 该结论基本符合该地区冬暖夏凉的气候变化事实, 也与该地区其他有关双季稻安全生产研究的结果基本吻合^[13], 这更增加了晚稻生产的风险 ...

... 3 双季晚稻品种的耐寒性及安全齐穗温度指标有待深入研究本研究结果表明, 近25年来长江中游双季晚稻的安全齐穗期并未因气候变暖而明显延迟, 甚至略有提前, 此结果在黄晚华等^[13]的研究中也得到了证实 ...

2003

0.0

... 42℃ ^[13], 湖北省与江西省自20世纪90年代以来也增温明显^[14,15] ...

2007

0.0

1.889

. 2007, 40:1646-1653

Climate change and main response to agrometeorological disasters in Hubei Province

武汉区域气候中心

By using inclination rate， climate change and the main agrometeorological disasters are analyzed in this paper. Comparing with other conclusions previously， the conclusion of temperature change is altered. According to principle of agrometeorology and index of agrometeorological disasters， meteorological elements are combined and calculated and the change trend of agrometeorological disasters is analyzed in this paper. There are 17 disasters inclination decreasing and 9 disasters inclination increasing in all of 26 disasters. It is not mean climate change is propitious to agriculture. The analyzed conclusions enhance meteorological department serving agriculture exactly and provide means of government’s decision-making for using climatic resources adequately and avoiding disasters availably.

【目的】研究气候和农业气象灾害变化。【方法】根据农业气象学原理和农业气象灾害指标，整合、统计相应的气象要素。采用气候倾向率方法对资料进行处理。【结果】与以前的分析结论比较，经过延长10 a的资料分析，温度变化结论有所改变。【结论】气温变化呈增加趋势，降水变化呈增多趋势，日照变化呈减少趋势。26种农业气象灾害中，有17种呈减少趋势，有9种呈增加趋势。但并不意味着气候变化对农业有利。所得结论增强了气象部门为“三农”服务的针对性，也为政府和农业部门充分利用气候资源、趋利避害提供了决策依据。

... 42℃ ^[13], 湖北省与江西省自20世纪90年代以来也增温明显^[14,15] ...

2000

0.0

1.474

... 这种气候变化对农业生产特别是作物生产造成了不可忽视的影响^{[16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27]}, 如江苏省近25年各地水稻的安全齐穗期较以前普遍延迟3~4 d ^[28], 玉米、小麦等作物的物候期也发生了明显变化 ...

2005

0.0

. 2005, 1:151-156

Effect of climate change on the growth and yields of double-harvest rice in Southern China

Based on the WOFOST crop model, jointing the climate simulated data produced by climate model, the simulation research was carried out about the impacts of the climate change on the yields and growth of double-harvest rice in the southern China during the future one hundred years. Results showed that, 1) the life time of double-harvest rice will be shortened owing to climate change; and 2) the yields of double-harvest rice will be decreased to some extent, especially the early rice. But the decreasing rate is not so fast.

基于WOFOST作物模式，结合气候模式输出的气候情景资料，模拟研究了未来100 a（2001-2100年）气候变化对我国南方双季稻发育和产量的影响。结果表明：未来气候情景下，我国南方大部分地区双季稻（早稻、晚稻）的生长期会有所缩短；产量可能会有所下降，但下降的幅度不是很大，其中早稻受气候变化的影响较大。

2010

0.0

. 2010, 6:123-129

Impacts of climate change on crop planting structure in China

The water and heat conditions change resulted from climate change has strongly affected agricultural production, and famers take various kinds of measures to adapt to impacts of climate change. To further understand the effects of climate change on main grain crops and the adaptive measures taken by farmers, we analyzed changes in the planting structure of main grain crops based on the daily average temperature and the data from "China Agricultural Yearbook" published from 1980 to 2007 by National Bureau of Statistics as well as research results from literature. The results indicate that planting proportion changes of main grain crops were obvious on the nationwide scale from 1980 to 2007 as the result of the climate warming, the wheat planting proportion was more sensitive to climate change, and it fluctuated largely; the paddy rice planting proportion changed in opposite trends in northern and southern China, and its change has become slower; the corn planting proportion continued to increase, its change was enlarging; the planting structure of the three main grain crops (paddy rice, wheat and corn) all changed in 2000 with different increasing/declining trends. Furthermore, the crops ripe system and the multiple cropping index also changed obviously; the north boundary of crops planting has continuously moved northward. The winter wheat planting area in northern China in 2007 moved northward by nearly 100 km compared with the 1960s. The paddy rice planting area has greatly expanded in Heilongjiang Province, where the paddy rice has dominated in the original corn planting areas.

气候变化引起水热条件的变化，从而影响到我国农业生产的方方面面，人们采取不同措施以适应气候变化带来的各种影响。为了清楚地认识气候变化对我国主要粮食作物生产的影响以及适应措施，利用《中国农业统计年鉴》1980-2007年资料和1961-2007年全国逐日平均温度观测数据及前人的研究成果，分析了气候变化对我国三大粮食作物布局和种植结构的影响。结果表明，由于气候变暖，粮食作物种植比例变化明显。小麦种植比例对气候变化最为敏感，波动大；水稻种植比例变化南北方反向，且变化幅度趋缓；玉米种植比例持续增加，增幅加大。三大粮食作物种植结构变化均以2000年为分界点，呈现不同增减趋势。而作物熟制、复种指数也发生明显变化，种植北界持续北推。黑龙江地区大面积扩种水稻，原来的玉米优势种植区为水稻所替代。

2009

0.0

. 2009, 23:57-64

Impacts of climate change and its variability on rice production in the middle and lower valley of the Yangtze River, China

Institute of Agricultural Resources and Environment， Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences， Nanjing 210014, China; *Corresponding author, E-mail: zhiqingjin@163.com

Three hypothesis involving increase in climate variability（CV) in future (no change, 10% increase and 20% increase) were made, with which and outputs of the three GCMs (GISS, GFDL and UKMO), combined with the local Baseline weather at 19 sites in the middle and lower valley of the Yangtze River, China, 9 doubled CO2 climate change scenarios with CV consideration were generated using the weather generator(WGEN) in the DecisionSupport System for Agriculture Transfer (DSSAT) at each site. The genetic parameters of the CERESRice were modified using the Try and Error method and then calibrated and validated to examine its suitability in the studied regions, adopting the local statistical yield data (1979-1998)，combined with the local rice ecological experiments or regional varietal trials, as well as the synchronous meteorological and soil data at each site. Finally, the CERESRice was run again under the 9 scenarios and the Baseline, combined with the computation of evapotranspiration ratio (β) and the fluctuation coefficient, the effects of both climate change and its variability (CC+ΔCV) on rice production were assessed. The main results of this study were as follows: when CO2 doubled, with increase of CV, the heat damage induced by high temperature would become increasingly acute for different patterns of rice cropping systems in the studied regions, meanwhile, the low temperature stress would be significantly weakened for both early and late rice; There might be no obvious change in moisture conditions during rice growing season, but the probabilities occurring seasonal drought and rainstorm would increase; Rice growth duration under different cropping systems or irrigation patterns in the studied regions would be significantly shortened, however, ΔCV exerted no effect on rice growth duration; The simulated yields of both single and doublecropping rice, including irrigated and rainfed rice would be obviously reduced under the CC+ΔCV scenarios, compared with that under the CC scenarios and the yield reduction in the middle valley would be greater than that in the lower valley of the Yangtze River, singlecropping and late rice would be more significant than early rice and decreasing yield under the UKMO and GISS scenarios would be more serious than that under the GFDL scenario; With increasing ΔCV, not only the simulated yields further decreased compared with the control (ΔCV=0%), but also the yield stability reduced, indicating that the yield fluctuation coefficient would increase, however, perfect irrigation conditions would mitigate the yield fluctuations differing in years.

在长江中下游稻区选择19个样点，将每个样点近20年（1979-1998年）的水稻产量资料及同期气象资料分为两组，一组结合当地水稻生态试验或品种区域试验资料用于CERESRice模型中遗传参数的调试，另一组用于检验该模型在研究区域的适用性。通过对未来气候变率变化(ΔCV)的3种假设并利用WGEN(天气生成器)，将每个样点基于3种平衡GCM(大气环流模型)的CO2倍增气候变化情景文件改进为兼顾气候及其变率变化(CC+ΔCV)的9种情景文件。在上述各情景文件下分别运行CERESRice，并将模拟结果与本底气候 (Baseline)下的模拟值进行比较，再结合蒸散比（β）和产量波动系数等算法，评价了CO2有效倍增时CC+ΔCV对长江中下游稻区水稻生产的影响。结果表明，当CO2有效倍增时，随着ΔCV的增大，不同稻作制度下水稻高温热害将愈演愈烈，早稻和晚稻受低温威胁将显著减轻；水稻生长季内干湿状况较目前无明显差异，但季节性干旱和暴雨的发生频次呈增加之势；研究区域不同稻作制度下的水稻生育期均明显缩短，ΔCV增大对生育期无显著影响；不论是单、双季稻，还是灌溉或雨育水稻都显著减产，其中中游稻区的减产幅度大于下游稻区，单季稻和晚稻的减产幅度大于早稻，UKMO、GISS情景下的减产幅度大于GFDL情景；研究区域不同稻作制度下的水稻进一步减产，且稳产性变差，但良好的灌溉条件可以减缓水稻产量的年际波动。

2010

0.0

1.889

. 2010, 43:1860-1867

The possible effect of global climate changes on cropping systems boundary in China: II. The characteristics of climatic variables and the possible effect on northern limits of cropping systems in South China

（中国农业大学资源与环境学院）

【Objective】 Under the background of climate change, the changes of cropping boundary and its effect on yield in South China were studied. 【Method】 Based on the historical weather data of 281 stations in 15 provinces (cities, autonomous regions) in south China, the trends of ≥0℃ accumulated temperature and annual precipitations were analyzed briefly. The changes of grade 0 areas under climate change were studied according to the thermal indicators of heat. Furthermore, the changes of grade 1 areas were analyzed combining with the precipitation indicators. The changes of yield were studied based on the data of yield during 2000-2007. 【Result】 The trends of ≥0℃ accumulated temperature increased and the mean annual value was 60.05 ℃•d/10a; The trends of ≥10℃ accumulated temperature increased. The mean annual trends value of annual precipitations was 1.93 mm/10a, and the spatial differences were large. Compared with the situation before 1980, there was no significant change in the boundary of one-crop per year in South China; however, the change of boundary between two-crops and three-crops per year was marked, which moved with about 2′ to west and 20′ to north. The area of three-crops per year was enlarging, while the areas of two-crops and one-crop per year were reducing. The change of grade 1 area from 1980 was also significant. The south boundary area of two-crops in irrigated land and two/one-crop in dry land in Huanghuaihai area (part of South China) moved to north. Area of wheat-rice in Jianghuai plain or hill moved to north and enlarged. The north boundary of area of two/three-crops in paddy/dry land in Sichuan basin moved to south in the northeast part of Sichuan Province. The west and southeast boundary of area of two-crops in paddy field and two/one-crop in dry land in Southwest plateau or mountain moved to west, while there was no significant change on the area. The north boundary of area of two/three-crops in paddy field in middle-lower Yangtze plain or hill moved to north as well as the west boundary moved to west, and the area enlarged. The north boundary of area of later two/three-crops and thermal three-crops in South China moved to north and the area enlarged. The changes of cropping systems were benefit for increasing the yield in the most areas. 【Conclusion】The effect of climate change on the cropping system was so great that the boundary of multiple cropping moved to north and west, and the area enlarged. That was benefit for increasing the yield generally.

【目的】研究气候变化背景下,中国南方地区种植制度一级区种植界限的变化特征及其对单位面积周年产量的可能影响。【方法】基于中国南方15个省（市、自治区）281个站点自建站至2007年的地面气象观测资料,笔者以1981年为时间节点,把20世纪50年代至今分为两个时间段,分析和比较后一时段≥0℃积温和年降水量的变化趋势,根据热量指标分析了气候变化背景下南方地区种植制度零级带的变化,综合考虑热量和降水两个指标研究了种植制度一级区界限的变化,并利用2000-2007年各省粮食产量分析了种植制度界限变化敏感区域粮食产量变化情况。【结果】（1）南方地区≥0℃积温整体呈增加趋势,平均气候倾向率为60.1℃•d/10a,≥10℃积温整体呈增加趋势,年降水量平均气候倾向率为1.9 mm/10a,空间差异大。（2）与1980年以前相比,南方一年一熟与一年二熟区的分界限无明显变化;一年二熟区和一年三熟区的界限变化较为明显,平均向西推进约0.2个经度,向北移动约0.20个纬度;研究区域一年三熟区面积扩大,一年二熟区面积有所缩小,一年一熟区也稍有缩小。与1980年前相比,种植制度一级区界限变化较大：黄淮海地区水浇地二熟与旱地二熟一熟区的南界向北移动;江淮平原丘陵麦稻二熟区整体向北推移,且总面积扩大;四川盆地水旱二熟三熟区北界在四川东北部向南移;西南高原山地水田二熟旱地二熟一熟区西界向西推移,东南界向西推进,总区域面积变化不大;长江中下游平原丘陵水田三熟二熟区,北界平均向北移动,西界也平均向西推进,总区域扩大;华南晚三熟二熟与热三熟区,其北界平均向北移动,区域扩大。（3）种植制度的改变有利于大部地区单位面积周年作物产量的提高。【结论】气候变化对南方地区种植制度界限有较大影响,造成多熟种植界限的向北、向西推进,多熟种植区域扩大,总体上有利于单位面积周年作物产量的增加。

... 4 气候变化倾向率采用最小二乘法, 计算安全生产日期与年度的线性回归系数a, 安全生产季节的变化可用一次线性方程表示^[20,33], 即 ...

2001

0.0

2011

0.0

1.742

. 2011, 22:1511-1522

Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of global climate change: VI. Change characteristics of precipitation resource and its possible effect on maize production in Sanjiang Plain of Heilongjiang Province

1College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;2Guizhou Meterological Bureau, Guiyang 550002, China; 3Ningxia Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Yinchuan 750002, China

Based on the 1959-2007 daily precipitation data and 1983-2007 spring maize phenologyical data, the thresholds of extreme precipitation at different places in Sanjiang Plain of Heilongjiang Province were calculated by percentile method, and, in combining with the indices involving the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation, longest consecutive wet (dry) days, and contribution rate of extreme precipitation, the annual change characteristics of extreme precipitation, quantitative change of different grade precipitation, and distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation at each growth stage of spring maize were analyzed. In 1959-2007, the annual precipitation in Sanjiang Plain showed a slight decreasing trend, and the decreasing amplitude of precipitation days was much larger than that of precipitation. Accordingly, the annual distribution of precipitation tended to be more concentrated. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation declined, and the annual fluctuation of the frequency was bigger than that of the intensity. There was a slight decrease in the proportion of annual extreme precipitation to annual precipitation, but the decreasing tendency was not significant. The annual light rain days had a significant decreasing trend, but the annual moderate and heavy rain days didn’t have. During spring maize growth season, the distribution ratio of extreme precipitation from high to low was reproductive growth stage, coexistence stage of vegetative growth and reproductive growth, vegetative growth stage, and pre-mergence stage. There was a significant decrease in the proportion of the precipitation during spring maize growth season to annual precipitation, resulting in an increasing risk of precipitation scarcity during the growth season. The longest consecutive dry days during spring maize growth season showed a significant increasing trend, with the increment averaged 1.1 d·(10 a)^-1, while the longest consecutive wet days showed a significant decreasing trend, with the decrement averaged 0.5 d·(10 a)^-1. Under natural precipitation, the spring maize drought risk in the study region increased.

利用黑龙江省三江平原地区1959—2007年降水资料和1983—2007年春玉米生育期资料，采用百分位法确定了各站点的极端降水阈值，结合极端降水频次、强度、最长连续（无）降水日数、极端降水贡献率等指标，分析了三江平原地区极端降水的年际间变化特征、不同等级的降水量变化以及春玉米各生育阶段极端降水的分配特征.结果表明：1959—2007年间，研究区域年降水量呈略微减少趋势，且年降水日数的减幅远大于降水量，年内降水量分布更趋于集中；极端降水频次和强度均呈减少趋势，极端降水频次的年际间波动大于极端降水强度；年极端降水量占全年降水量的比例略有减少，减少趋势不显著；年小雨日数极显著减少，而年中雨日数和年内大到暴雨日数的减少趋势不显著.三江平原地区春玉米各生育阶段的极端降水分配比例由高到低依次为生殖生长阶段、营养生长与生殖生长并存阶段、营养生长阶段和出苗前；春玉米生长季内降水量占年降水量的比例显著减少，导致春玉米生长季缺水的风险加大；春玉米生长季内最长连续无降水日数呈极显著增加趋势，增幅达1.1 d·(10 a) ^-1，而最长连续降水日数却呈极显著下降趋势，减幅为0.5 d·(10 a)^-1，说明研究区自然降水条件下春玉米生长季干旱风险有所加大.

2010

0.0

1.889

. 2010, 43:2088-2097

Analysis of the potential influence of global climate change on cropping systems in China: III. The change characteristics of climatic resources in Northern China and its potential influence on cropping systems

(中国农业大学资源与环境学院)

【Objective】 Under the background of global climate change, the obvious changes that had taken place in heat and precipitation resources in northern China were studied. Furthermore, the possible effects of climate warming on the agro-climatic resources and cropping systems in northern China were analyzed. 【Method】 Based on 308 meteorological observations stations from 14 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in northern China, the inter-decadal and spatial variation trends of heat and precipitation resource were analyzed. According to the climatic regionalization indicators of cropping systems in China, the spatial displacement of planting north boundary during 1950s—1980 and 1981—2007 was analyzed. The major method used was choosing typical stations in the sensitive zone of cultivation northern boundary, and crop potential productivity step correction method to calculate the potential yield change due to cropping pattern shift between one crop (spring maize, spring wheat, winter wheat) a year and two crops (winter-summer maize) a year. 【Result】 Temperatures in northern China had generally increased, ≥0℃ accumulated temperature zone showed a north shift and a west spread, the cumulative effects of temperature rising were significant, the climatic tendency of cumulative temperature was 65.5 ℃•d/10a. Distribution of annual precipitation had presented a regional difference and reduced from southeast to northwest. Along to this, in the whole region it also showed a decreasing trend, the climatic tendency of precipitation varied from -90.0 mm/10a to 23.0 mm/10a, with an average level of -10.6 mm/10a. Under the combined effect of heat and precipitation, in the research area, the area of one-crop of cool-warm plants in semi-arid medium plateau in north (Ⅱ) declined, in area of one-crop of warm-cool plants in semi-arid low plateau in northeast and northwest (Ⅲ) increased in northeast China, and declined in North China and northwest China. The area of one-crop of warm-cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly in northeast (Ⅳ) increased and the north boundary moved north in area of two-crops in irrigated land and two/one-crop in dry land in Huanghuaihai region (Ⅵ). Generally speaking, the northeast area boundary had a remarkable change, but was gradual and insignificant in southwest. In the sensitive areas which showed planting system’s north boundary changes, crop potential productivity increased significantly, from the area of one-crop of warm-cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly areas in northeast (Ⅳ) to the area of two-crops a year, the yield increased by 1 979 kg•hm-2, which means that the annual production per unit area increased by 15.3%; from the area of one-crop of warm-cool plants in semi-arid low plateau in northeast and northwest (Ⅲ) to the area of two-crops a year, the yield increased by 7 912 kg•hm-2, which means that the annual production per unit area increased by 155.2%; in the area of one-crop of warm-cool plants in semi-arid low plateau in northeast and northwest (Ⅲ) where the spring wheat is changed to spring maize, the yield increased by 2 873 kg•hm-2, which means that the annual production per unit area increased by 51.7%. 【Conclusion】 In the context of global climate change, the≥0℃ accumulated temperature increased while the precipitation showed a decreasing trend in the research region. All of these caused a northwest movement of the north boundary line in sensitive zones of planting boundaries and the cropping system changes resulted in the increase of annual production per unit area.

【目的】在全球气候变化背景下,分析中国北方地区的热量和降水资源变化特征,以及北方地区农业气候资源和种植制度界限变动情况。【方法】基于中国北方地区14个省(市、自治区)308个气象台站地面观测资料,综合分析热量和降水资源的年际和空间变化趋势。结合中国种植制度气候区划指标,分析从1950s—1980年和1981—2007年种植北界的空间位移情况。在种植制度北界变化敏感地带选择典型站点,运用作物生产潜力逐级订正法计算由一年一熟春玉米、春小麦及冬小麦种植模式改变为一年两熟冬小麦-夏玉米种植模式导致的作物生产潜力变化。【结果】(1)中国北方地区气温普遍升高,≥0℃积温带北移西扩,温度上升的累积效应十分明显,≥0℃积温为每10年升高65.5℃。年降水量呈带状分布,由东南向西北减少,全区年降水量呈减小的趋势,年降水量每10年变化-90—23 mm,平均为每10年减少10.6 mm。(2)在热量和降水共同影响下,北部中高原半干旱凉温作物一熟区(Ⅱ)面积减少,东北西北低高原半干旱温凉作物一熟区(Ⅲ)在东北地区面积增加,而在西北和华北地区面积减少,东北平原丘陵半湿润温凉作物一熟区(Ⅳ)面积增加,黄淮海水浇地二熟旱地二熟一熟区(Ⅵ)向北移动,总体而言北方地区东北部种植界限空间位移显著,而西南部变化不明显。(3)在种植制度北界变动的敏感地带,作物生产潜力明显改变：在东北平原丘陵半湿润温凉作物一熟区变化为一年二熟区,作物生产潜力增加1 979 kg•hm-2,相当于单位面积土地周年产量增加15.3%;在东北西北低高原半干旱温凉作物一熟区改变为一年二熟区,作物生产潜力增加7 912 kg•hm-2,相当于单位面积土地周年产量增加155.2%;在东北西北低高原半干旱温凉作物一熟区春小麦种植改变为春玉米,作物生产潜力增加2 873 kg•hm-2,相当于单位面积土地周年产量增加51.7%。【结论】全球气候变化背景下,研究区域内≥0℃积温增加,年降水量呈减少的趋势,种植界限敏感区域种植北界明显北移西扩,种植界限变化敏感区域内因种植模式改变带来单位土地面积周年作物产量增加。

2010

0.0

1.889

. 2010, 43:329-336

The possible effects of global warming on Cropping Systems in China: I. The possible effects of climate warming on northern limits of cropping systems and crop yields in China

（中国农业大学资源与环境学院）

【Objective】 Increasing temperature in China significantly since the 1980s has become a consensus in the context of global climate change. How the change affected the agriculture or even the cropping system has attracted more and more attention of the government and scientists. In this study, the possible effects of climate warming on the countrywide northern limits of cropping systems, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat - summer maize rotation in China from 1981 to 2007 were analyzed. And the possible changes of crop yield due to the changes of planting limits during the period from 1950s to 1981 and the period from 1981 to 2007 were compared and discussed. 【Method】 A recognized calculation method of agro-meteorological indicators were used in the study. The countrywide northern limits of cropping systems, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat–summer maize rotation were draw by ArcGis for two periods from 1950s to 1980 and 1981 to 2007, according to the indices of the climate zoning index of cropping system, winter wheat and double rice northern limits and stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotaion. 【Result】 Compared with the results during the period from 1950s to 1980, the northern limits of the two-cropping system from 1981 to 2007 occurred significant spatial displacement in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing and Liaoning provinces and city. The northern limits of the three-cropping system occurred largest spatial displacement in Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces. Without the consideration for variety and social economic changing, grain yield per hectare of main cropping pattern could increase about 54%-106% if the one-cropping system changed to two-cropping system, while increase about 27%-58% if two-cropping system is changed to three-cropping. The northern limits of winter wheat moved northwards and westwards to different degrees in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu and Qinghai provinces,comparing with the results during the 1950s-1980 period. For example in Hebei province, northern limits of winter wheat moved north,leading to about 25% grain yield increase in the changing area if the cropping system is changed from spring wheat to winter wheat in one year. The northern limits of double rice cropping area in Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, and Hunan provinces moved northwards. Considering the heat resource, the change of limits can increase the grain yield. The stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize moved southeastwards in most regions, mainly caused by the decreased rainfall during recent years in the study areas.【Conclusion】 During the past 50 years, the climate warming caused the northwards movement of the northern limits of cropping system, and the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice. The changes may increase the unit grain yield in the changing area. However, the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat–summer maize rotation moved southeastwards due to the decreasing rainfall.

【目的】在全球气候变化背景下,中国气温自20世纪80年代明显升高已成为共识,这一变化对中国农业生产尤其是对种植制度的影响越来越受到中国政府和专家学者的重视。为了回答这一问题,笔者以1981年为时间节点,把从20世纪50年代至今分为2个时间段,分析和比较后一时段气候变暖对全国种植制度北界、冬小麦种植北界、双季稻种植北界、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产种植北界的可能影响,以及由于种植北界的空间位移对作物产量可能的影响。【方法】依据全国种植制度气候区划指标、冬小麦和双季稻种植北界指标以及雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产种植北界的降水量指标,采用公认的农业气候指标计算方法,使用ArcGIS分别绘出1950s—1980年、1981—2007年2个时段全国种植制度北界图,以及冬小麦种植北界图、双季稻种植北界图、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产的种植北界图。【结果】（1）与1950s—1980年相比,1981—2007年一年二熟制种植北界,空间位移变化最大的区域在陕西省、山西省、河北省、北京和辽宁省。一年三熟制种植北界,空间位移变化最大的区域为湖南省、湖北省、安徽省、江苏省和浙江省。在不考虑品种变化、社会经济等方面因素的前提下,这些区域由一年一熟变成一年二熟,主体种植模式的粮食单产平均可增加54%—106%,由一年二熟变成一年三熟,主体种植模式的粮食单产平均可增加27%—58%。（2）与1950s—1980年相比,1981—2007年辽宁省、河北省、山西省、陕西省、内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃省和青海省冬小麦的种植北界不同程度北移西扩。以河北省为例,冬小麦种植北界的北移,可使界限变化区域由春小麦改种冬小麦,单产平均增加约25%。（3）浙江省、安徽省、湖北省和湖南省双季稻的种植北界向北移动,单从热量资源的角度出发,可使其粮食单产不同程度增加。（4）雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产的种植北界大部分区域向东南方向移动,这是由于近年来该区降水量减少造成的。【结论】在过去的50年中,由于气候变暖造成了全国种植制度界限不同程度北移、冬小麦和双季稻种植北界北移,熟制的变化可能使种植制度界限变化区域的粮食单产增加。然而降水量的减少造成了雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产北界向东南方向移动。

2010

0.0

1.889

. 2010, 43:2477-2484

The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in China: V. The possible effects of climate warming on geographical shift in safe northern limit of tropical crops and the risk analysis of cold damage in China

(中国农业大学资源与环境学院)

【Objective】 The period from 1950s to 2007 was divided into two stages,i.e., 1950s-1980 and 1981-2007, then the geographical shift of northern limit for tropical crops and the possible risk of cold damage in the cold-sensitive areas after the shift were analyzed and compared. 【Method】 Using the standard of China farming system regional planning and some agro-meteorological indicators, the geographical shift of safe northern limit were compared and analyzed and the change map were draw by ArcGIS. Using the synthesized index of cold damage, the risks of cold damage in sensitive area of planting tropical crops were evaluated. 【Result】 Compared with the results during the period from 1950s to 1980, in the 80% climate guarantee rate, the safe northern limit moved northward by 0.86 latitude during the period from 1981 to 2007. Its interdecadal change was obvious, and the respective annual rating of moving northward was 0.03 and 0.06 latitude during the 1990s and the period 2000-2007. In the 80% climate guarantee rate, the risk of cold damage in sensitive area of planting tropical crops reached 3.0 times higher than the non-sensitive area, especially the risk caused by severe or very severe cold damage reached 3.5 times. 【Conclusion】 The safe Northern limit has shown an obvious northward moving under climate warming and the rate of northward moving shows an accelerated trend. The risk of cold damage is increased in the moving sensitive region of the safe northern limit.

【目的】以1981年为界,把从20世纪50年代到2007年划分为两个时段,对比分析1950s—1980年和1981—2007年热带作物安全种植北界的地理位移以及北界位移后界限变化敏感区域的寒害风险。【方法】利用中国种植制度分区标准和农业气候指标,对比分析两个时段热带作物种植北界的演变特征,并采用ArcGIS绘制了热带作物种植北界地理位移图;利用综合寒害指数对气候变暖背景下热带作物安全种植北界位移后的敏感区域进行寒害风险评估。【结果】与1950s—1980年相比,1981—2007年在80%气候保证率下中国热带作物安全种植北界北移了0.86个纬度,且年代际变化显著;20世纪90年代和时段2000—2007年,北界的北移速率每年分别达0.03和0.06个纬度;在80%气候保证率下,热带作物安全种植北界北移后敏感区域的寒害风险比非敏感区域要高出3.0倍,而重度以上寒害风险比非敏感区域要高出3.5倍。【结论】在全球气候变暖背景下,中国热带作物安全种植北界发生了明显北移,且北移速率呈加快趋势;在热带作物安全种植北界地理位移后的敏感区域,寒害风险增加。

2010

0.0

1.889

. 2010, 43:2280-2291

The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in China: IV. The possible impact of future climatic warming on the northern limits of spring maize in three provinces of Northeast China

（中国农业大学资源与环境学院）

【Objective】 The fact that temperature in China had increased significantly in the context of global climate change has become a consensus. The effects of this change on China’s agricultural production, especially on cropping systems and crop distribution have attracted more and more attention of the Chinese government and scientists. 【Method】 In this paper, using the accumulated temperature with different guarantee rates by empirical frequencies method, the changes of the northern limits of different maturity-types of spring maize varieties and the changes of water deficient ratio in the study region were analysed, based on the meteorology data in both A2 and B1 climatic scenarios. 【Result】 The northern limits of different maturity-types of spring maize varieties moved northward with different degrees without considering the effect of elevated CO2 concentration on the growth and development of crop in future climate scenarios. In the sensitive region, the early-maturity varieties will be replaced by the middle and late maturity varieties, making the growth period longer and the dry matter increased, which can improve the yield of spring maize in three provinces of Northeast China. However, the increase of water deficient ratio will bring a certain risk of northward movement in the 21 mid-century. 【Conclusion】 Heat and water resources should be comprehensively considered in the northward movement of different maturity-types of spring maize varieties. Spring maize should plant in the suitable region in order to reduce the loss of maize yield due to the draught.

【目的】在全球气候变化背景下,中国气温明显升高已成为共识,这一变化对中国农业生产尤其是对种植制度及作物布局的影响越来越受到农业生产管理部门和专家学者的重视。【方法】本文结合SRES的两种排放情景A2（强调经济发展）和B1（强调可持续发展）预估的未来气候数据,采用经验频率法计算不同保证率下的积温,探讨了未来气候情景下东北三省春玉米不同熟型品种种植北界的变化趋势,同时探讨了未来气候情景下研究区域内春玉米缺水率的变化趋势。【结果】未来气候情景下,在不考虑CO2浓度升高对作物生长发育影响的前提下,东北三省春玉米不同熟型品种种植北界不同程度向北移动,在界限敏感区域内中晚熟品种替代早熟品种,使得玉米生育期延长,干物质积累增加,可以提高东北三省春玉米产量。然而在未来21世纪中期,春玉米缺水率亦呈现增加的趋势,为种植界限北移带来一定的风险。【结论】在未来气候条件下,春玉米不同熟型品种种植北界北移需综合考虑热量和水分的影响,适区种植以减少由于干旱造成的春玉米减产。

2011

0.0

1.889

2011

0.0

1.667

. 2011, 37:146-151 DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2011.00146

Changes of safe dates for full heading in japonica rice over past 50 years in Jiangsu Province

1 Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and Physiology of Jiangsu Province / Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China; 2 Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology, Ecology and Cultivation in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River, Ministry of Agriculture, Yangzhou 225009, China; 3 Lixiahe Region Agricultural Research Institute of Jiangsu, Yangzhou 225007, China

Determining the safe dates of full heading of rice is very important for arranging sowing and transplanting dates. In this study, the daily average temperatures from May to November during the 50 years (1958–2007) in four regions from north to south in Jiangsu Province (Ganyu, Huai’an, Yangzhou, and Wuxian city) were analyzed. According to the normal indices of temperatures for the safe dates of full heading in japonica rice cultivars with weaker and stronger cold tolerance, safe dates of full heading were obtained for the 50 years from 1958 to 2007, the first 25 years, and the second 25 years. The guarantee rate for the safe dates was 50%, 80%, and 90% respectively. It was observed that the safe dates of full heading during the second 25 years were three to four days later than those during the first 25 years. Variation in the safe dates of full heading was greater for the second 25 years than for the first 25 years. The safe dates of full heading at the four regions from north to south were 18th September, 20th September, 24th September and 28th September, respectively, and were four to six days later than those currently used in these regions. As the global whether is warming, these results could be utilized as references for the production in different rice-growing areas. More experiments should be conducted to observe cold tolerance of rice cultivars during heading and flowering, and to obtain the safe dates of full heading for major varieties, so that more exact sowing and transplanting dates could be got in japonica rice.

确定水稻安全齐穗期是安排各品种播栽期的重要依据。本研究应用江苏由北至南4个代表性地点(赣榆、淮安、扬州和吴县)近50年(1958—2007) 5~11月逐日日平均温度资料，根据生产上常用的耐寒性较弱和较强的粳稻安全齐穗期的温度指标，得出了近50年及其前25年和后25年4地点两类粳稻保证率为50%、80%和90%的安全齐穗日期，发现后25年各地的安全齐穗日期较前25年普遍延迟，延迟的幅度在3~4 d；后25年各地的安全齐穗日期的变异亦明显增大。进而提出了北南各地点一般粳稻安全齐穗日期分别为9月18日、9月20日、9月24日和9月28日，这比目前各地生产中习惯应用的安全齐穗日期迟约4~6 d。本文分析方法可以供我国各稻区相关研究参考，其结果也可供我国类似稻区借鉴，并在气候变暖的大背景下对水稻安全齐穗期的变化给予新的认识。指出应对现用主体粳稻品种出穗开花期的耐寒性进行观察研究，确定出各地各类型粳稻品种的安全齐穗日期，以更具体准确地指导水稻播(栽)期的安排。

... 由于直播与机插较抛秧和手插的播期推迟15~30 d, 这使晚稻安全齐穗与安全成熟问题更加突出^[28] ...

... 相关研究表明直播与机插较传统的抛秧和手插的播期要推迟15~30 d, 特别是直播可能要推迟更多, 这使晚稻安全齐穗与安全成熟问题更加突出^[28] ...

... 2 杂交晚籼稻安全齐穗期明显提前对生产实践的指导意义有待探讨长江中游双季稻区的气候变暖趋势已是事实, 在此背景下, 晚稻的安全齐穗期应当会延迟, 正如江苏省近50年粳稻安全齐穗期的变化那样, 普遍延迟^[28] ...

2005

0.799

0.363

. 2005, 63:942-956

Climate changes of China mainland over the past half century

采用国家基准气候站和基本气象站的地面资料,系统地分析了中国大陆地区1951年以来近地表主要气候要素演化的时间和空间特征.结果表明,中国近50 a来年平均地表气温变暖幅度约为1.1℃,增温速率接近0.22℃/(10 a),比全球或半球同期平均增温速率明显偏高.地表气温增暖主要发生在最近的20余年,其季节和空间特征与前人分析结论基本一致.降水量变化趋势对所取时间段和区域范围敏感.1951年以来全国平均降水量变化趋势不明显,但1956年以来略有增加.降水变化的空间特征明显而相对稳定,东北北部、包括长江中下游的东南部地区和西部广大地区降水增加,而华北地区以及东北东南部和西北东部地区降水明显减少.分析还发现,近50a来全国平均的日照时数、平均风速、水面蒸发等气候要素均呈显著下降趋势,但积雪地带的最大积雪深度却有所增加.中国日照时间和水面蒸发量变化的空间特征很相似,减少最明显的地区均发生在华北和华东,新疆次之.影响中国年代以上尺度气候变化的因子错综复杂,人类活动引起的大气中温室气体浓度增高可能在一定程度上影响了中国近50 a来的气候,但考虑到尚存的不确定性,目前仍不能给出明确结论.中国东部大部分地区日照时间和水面蒸发量减少可能均起源于人为排放的气溶胶影响,平均风速减弱也有利于水面蒸发量下降,而在西部地区云量和降水量的变化可能更重要.

... 本研究基于我国长江中游地区年度的47个气象台站1960—2009年的逐年日平均温度完整资料, 将1960— 2009年划分为1960—1984年(时段I)和1985—2009年(时段II) 2个时段^[29], 分析近50年来该区域早稻安全播种期、早稻安全移栽期、晚稻安全齐穗期、晚稻安全成熟期等安全生产日期以及双季稻安全生产期天数变化及其对双季稻生产的可能影响, 以期为该区域当前双季稻生产合理选用品种、安排播期以及选择种植方式等提供依据与指导 ...

1990

0.0

... 1 安全日期采用5日滑动平均法对各气象台站的逐日日平均温度进行处理, 确定稳定通过某界限温度的日期, 再用不连续出现3 d以上不低于该界限温度的办法确定安全生产日期^[30] ...

... 2 各保证率的安全日期根据上述方法, 分别求得各生产季节的安全日期, 分近50年(1960—2009)、前25年(1960—1984)、后25年(1985—2009) 3个时段分别统计50%、80%保证率的安全日期, 50%保证率的安全日期即各时段内安全日期的平均值, 80%保证率的安全日期采用经验频率法计算^[30] ...

2006

0.0

0.8303

. 2006, 37(4):370-373

Analysis on climate conditions in main rice growth and development stages in Guangxi

气候与水稻生产关系密切.文章根据广西88个气象站1951～2000年的气象资料,统计分析了广西各地的水稻安全播种期、安全插秧期、安全齐穗期及安全成熟期,为确保水稻安全生产提供了科学依据.

... 用稳定通过15℃以上, 不连续出现3 d以上日均温低于15℃的终止日期作为晚稻的安全成熟期^[31,32] ...

1986

0.0

0.2168

... 用稳定通过15℃以上, 不连续出现3 d以上日均温低于15℃的终止日期作为晚稻的安全成熟期^[31,32] ...

2007

0.0

1.293

... 4 气候变化倾向率采用最小二乘法, 计算安全生产日期与年度的线性回归系数a, 安全生产季节的变化可用一次线性方程表示^[20,33], 即 ...

2010

0.0

. 2010, 29(增刊-1):85-87

Comparison of interpolation method of ArcGIS and its application in soil pollution investigation of Yunnan

介绍了ArcGIS系统插值方法的基本原理,对比了各种插值方法.通过在云南省土壤污染状况调查中的应用对比,最后决定采用反距离权重插值法.

... 2中Geostatistical Analyst模块, 用反距离权重插值方法(inverse distance weighting, IDW)对各安全生产期的气候变化倾向率以及安全生产期天数进行插值, 设定cell size参数为500 m, 生成空间栅格数据, 然后使用Spatial Analyst Tools编辑修改, 最后输出各安全生产期的气候变化倾向率以及安全生产季节天数的地理图^[34,35,36] ...

2010

0.0

1.742

. 2010, 21:624-630

Comparison of spatial in terpolation methods for daily meteorological elements

Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China

A comparative study was made to evaluate the methods of inverse distance weighting (IDW), co-kriging (CK), and thin plate spline (TPS) in interpolating the average meteorological elements (including maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, sunshine hours, and precipitation) of the 15^th day per month from the 1951-2005 comprehensive observation data of 559 meteorological stations in China. The results showed that the RMSEs for the maximum and minimum air temperature in a year interpolated by TPS were the smallest (1.02 ℃ and 1.12 ℃, respectively), and the R² between the observed and predicted values were the highest (0.9916 and 0.9913, respectively), compared with those interpolated by IDW and CK. In four seasons, the smallest RMSEs for the maximum and minimum air temperature interpolated by TPS were observed in autumn (0.83 ℃) and summer (0.86 ℃), respectively, and the R² between the observed and predicted values interpolated by TPS were higher in autumn than in other seasons. The RMSEs for the sunshine hours and precipitation in a year interpolated by TPS were the smallest (0.59 h and 1.01 mm, respectively),and the R² between the observed and predicted values were the highest (0.9118 and 0.8135, respectively), compared with those interpolated by IDW and CK. In four seasons, the RMSE for the sunshine hours in winter interpolated by TPS was the smallest (0.49 h), and the R² between the observed and predicted sunshine hours was the smallest (0.9293). The RMSE for the precipitation in winter interpolated by TPS was the smallest (0.33 mm), while the RMSE for the precipitation in summer interpolated by IDW was the smallest (2.01 mm). The R² between the observed and predicted precipitation in winter interpolated by CK was the highest (0.8781). It was suggested that TPS could be the optimal spatial interpolation method in interpolating and rasterizing the daily meteorological elements in China.

采用距离反比权重法(IDW)、协克里格法(CK)和薄盘样条法(TPS) 3种不同的空间插值方法，对我国1951—2005年气象数据完整的559个气象站点逐月第15日的平均基本气象要素(最高气温、最低气温、日照时数和降水量)进行了插值分析与评价.结果表明：3种插值方法中，TPS法对最高气温和最低气温插值的根均方差（RMSE）最小(1.02 ℃和1.12 ℃)、R²最大(0.9916和0.9913)；不同季节中，TPS法对秋季最高气温、夏季最低气温进行插值的RMSE均最小(0.83℃、0.86 ℃)，R²均为秋季最高.对于日照时数和降水量而言，TPS法的RMSE最小(0.59 h和1.01 mm)、R²最大(0.9118和0.8135)；不同季节中，TPS法对冬季日照时数进行插值的RMSE最小(0.49 h)、R²最大(0.9293)，TPS法对冬季降水量进行插值的RMSE最小(0.33 mm)，IDW法对夏季降水量进行插值的RMSE最小(2.01 mm)，CK法对春季降水量进行插值的R²最大(0.8781).TPS法可作为我国大量逐日基本气象要素的最优空间插值方法.

2011

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