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作物学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (12): 1859-1867.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2019.94041

• 耕作栽培·生理生化 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆棉花种植业地理集聚特征及影响因素研究

马春玥1,2,买买提·沙吾提1,2,3,*(),依尔夏提·阿不来提1,2,姚杰4   

  1. 1 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830046
    2 新疆绿洲生态教育部重点实验室, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830046
    3 新疆智慧城市与环境建模普通高校重点实验室, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830046
    4 重庆盈熙横纵信息技术有限公司, 重庆 400014
  • 收稿日期:2019-03-15 接受日期:2019-06-20 出版日期:2019-12-12 网络出版日期:2019-07-16
  • 通讯作者: 买买提·沙吾提
  • 作者简介:马春玥, E-mail: lury_gis@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    本研究由国家自然科学基金项目(41361016);本研究由国家自然科学基金项目(41461051)

Characteristics and influencing factors of geographical agglomeration of cotton plantation in Xinjiang

Chun-Yue MA1,2,Sawut Mamat1,2,3,*(),Ablet Ershat1,2,Jie YAO4   

  1. 1 College of Resources and Environmental Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
    2 Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Ministry of Education, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
    3 Key Laboratory for Wisdom City and Environmental Modeling, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
    4 Chongqing Yingxi Hengzong Information Technology Co. Ltd, Chongqing 400014, China
  • Received:2019-03-15 Accepted:2019-06-20 Published:2019-12-12 Published online:2019-07-16
  • Contact: Sawut Mamat
  • Supported by:
    This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41361016);This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41461051)

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摘要：

新疆是我国最大的产棉基地, 研究新疆棉花种植业地理集聚特征对调整和优化农业结构布局、农民增收、促进棉花生产的可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于1988—2016年的新疆棉花生产数据, 使用区位商、区位基尼系数和空间自相关分析探究新疆棉花种植业发展的时空变化特征, 并运用空间面板数据模型定性、定量地分析了各影响因素对新疆棉花种植业地理集聚的影响程度, 揭示了新疆棉花种植业发展的主要驱动因素。结果表明, 新疆棉花种植面积经历了持续增长(1988—1999年)、缓慢减少(2000—2004年)以及波动增长(2005—2016年) 3个阶段, 2016年已占全国种植面积的3/5, 其专业化集聚水平自1992年起均高于全国其他地区, 主导地位日益增强; 新疆棉花种植业的区域特征明显, 南疆棉区的变化主导新疆棉花种植业的变化; 新疆棉花种植业的集聚水平自1988年起呈现出波动中下降后缓慢回升的趋势, 其高值集聚区由喀什地区转移至阿克苏地区的库车县、新和县等地, 高-低集聚、低-高集聚及低低集聚变化不大; 推动新疆棉花种植业地理集聚发展的主要因素有生产性土地面积比重、棉花比较收益、机械化水平以及政策因素。

关键词: 棉花种植业, 地理集聚, 时空特征, 空间面板数据模型

Abstract:

Xinjiang is the largest cotton production base in China. The study on the geographical agglomeration characteristics of cotton planting in Xinjiang is of great significance in adjusting and optimizing the agricultural structure distribution of cotton production, increasing farmers’ income, and promoting the sustainable development of cotton. Based on the cotton production data of Xinjiang from 1988 to 2016, we explored the spatial-temporal change characteristics of cotton plantation by Location quotient, Gini coefficient, and spatial autocorrelation analysis, qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed various influence factors on the geographical agglomeration of cotton plantation by spatial panel data model, and revealed the main driving force of cotton planting industry in Xinjiang. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang experienced three stages, including continuous growth (1988-1999), slow decrease (2000-2004) and fluctuating growth (2005-2016). In 2016, the cotton planting area accounted for nearly 3/5 of the total area in China, and its professional agglomeration level was higher than that of other regions in China, with the increasingly strengthened leading position since 1992. The regional characteristics of cotton planting industry in Xinjiang were obvious. The change of cotton area in southern Xinjiang dominated the change of cotton plantation in Xinjiang. The agglomeration level of cotton plantation in Xinjiang showed a trend of slow recovery after a decline in fluctuation since 1988. The high aggregation (H-H) area transferred from Kashgar area to Kuqa and Xinhe in Aksu area, at the same time, the changes of high-low cluster, low-high cluster and low-low cluster were not significant. The main factors promoting the geographical agglomeration of cotton planting in Xinjiang included the proportion of productive land area, cotton comparative income, mechanization level and policy factors.

Key words: cotton plantation, geographical agglomeration, spatio-temporal characteristics, spatial panel data model

图1

全国各棉区占比情况(1988-2016年)"

表1

1988-2016年区位商排名前5的省、区"

年份
Year		 第1 Top 1 第2 Top 2 第3 Top 3 第4 Top 4 第5 Top 5
省、区
Region		 区位商Qi 省、区
Region		 区位商Qi 省、区
Region		 区位商Qi 省、区
Region		 区位商Qi 省、区
Region		 区位商Qi
1988 山东Shandong 3.4 新疆Xinjiang 3.4 河北Hebei 2.8 河南Henan 2.0 江苏Jiangsu 1.9
1992 新疆Xinjiang 4.6 山东Shandong 3.1 河南Henan 2.3 河北Hebei 2.3 江苏Jiangsu 1.8
1996 新疆Xinjiang 8.1 河南Henan 2.6 江苏Jiangsu 2.0 湖北Hubei 2.0 河北Hebei 1.6
2000 新疆Xinjiang 12.1 河南Henan 2.3 山东Shandong 1.9 湖北Hubei 1.6 河北Hebei 1.4
2004 新疆Xinjiang 8.5 天津Tianjin 4.7 山东Shandong 2.7 河北Hebei 2.1 河南Henan 1.9
2008 新疆Xinjiang 10.2 天津Tianjin 4.3 山东Shandong 2.3 河北Hebei 2.2 湖北Hubei 2.0
2012 新疆Xinjiang 11.7 天津Tianjin 4.0 河北Hebei 2.3 湖北Hubei 2.0 安徽Anhui 1.2
2016 新疆Xinjiang 16.6 山东Shandong 1.9 河北Hebei 1.5 天津Tianjin 1.3 湖北Hubei 1.2

表2

1988-2016年全国棉花种植面积排名前5的省市区"

年份
Year		 第1 Top 1 第2 Top 2 第3 Top 3 第4 Top 4 第5 Top 5
省、区
Region		 面积
Area		 省、区
Region		 面积
Area		 省、区
Region		 面积
Area		 省、区
Region		 面积
Area		 省、区
Region		 面积
Area
1988 山东Shandong 141.2 河北Hebei 92.4 河南Henan 89.6 江苏Jiangsu 59.9 湖北Hubei 44.2
1992 山东Shandong 147.7 河南Henan 122.9 河北Hebei 87.7 江苏Jiangsu 66.0 新疆Xinjiang 63.2
1996 河南Henan 95.4 新疆Xinjiang 74.3 山东Shandong 50.9 江苏Jiangsu 47.3 湖北Hubei 44.1
2000 新疆Xinjiang 106.3 河南Henan 79.1 山东Shandong 54.1 河北Hebei 33.0 安徽Anhui 31.0
2004 新疆Xinjiang 112.8 山东Shandong 105.9 河南Henan 95.2 河北Hebei 66.9 江苏Jiangsu 41.0
2008 新疆Xinjiang 166.8 山东Shandong 88.8 河北Hebei 69.0 河南Henan 60.6 湖北Hubei 54.3
2012 新疆Xinjiang 172.1 山东Shandong 69.0 河北Hebei 57.8 湖北Hubei 47.3 安徽Anhui 30.5
2016 新疆Xinjiang 215.5 山东Shandong 46.5 河北Hebei 28.9 湖北Hubei 20.3 安徽Anhui 18.3

图2

新疆各棉区棉花种植面积变化(1988-2016年)"

图3

新疆棉花地理集聚变化趋势(1988-2016年)"

图4

新疆棉花种植面积的全局相关性分析(1988-2016年)"

图5

新疆棉花种植地理集聚的局域空间自相关变化(1988-2016年) H-H: 表示一个高值被与其相邻的高值包围, 属于高-高集聚; H-L: 表示一个高值被与其相邻的低值包围, 属于高-低集聚; L-H: 表示一个低值被与其相邻的高值包围, 属于低-高集聚; L-L: 表示一个低值被与其相邻的低值包围, 属于低-低集聚。"

表3

影响因素的假设及变量说明"

影响因素
Influence factor		 变量
Variable		 变量说明
Variable description
资源条件
Resource conditions		 生产性土地面积比重
Proportion of productive land area (X1)		 棉花种植面积/土地面积
Cotton plantation areas/land area
人均粮食产量
Per capita grain yield (X2)		 粮食总产量/总人口数
Total grain production/total population
灌溉水平
Irrigation level (X3)		 区域灌溉用水量/耕地面积
Irrigation water consumption/cultivated area
经济和市场因素
Economic and market factors		 人均GDP情况
Per capita GDP (X4)		 区域GDP总量/总人口数
Total regional GDP/total population
棉花比较效益
Comparative benefit of cotton (X5)		 棉花与竞争性作物(粮食)价格比值
The price ratio of cotton to a competitive crop (grain)
技术因素
Technical factors		 机械化水平
Mechanization level (X6)		 农业机械总动力/耕地面积
Total power of agricultural machinery/cultivated area
化肥施用量
Consumption of chemical fertilizers (X7)		 化肥折纯量/耕地面积
Consumption of chemical fertilizers/cultivated area
塑料薄膜使用情况
Consumption of plastic film (X8)		 塑料薄膜使用量/耕地面积
Consumption of plastic film/cultivated area
交通条件和政策因素
Traffic condition and policies		 交通运输网密度
Traffic network density (X9)		 每百平方千米铁路和公路的总里程数
The total mileage of a railroad or highway per 100 square kilometers
政策虚拟变量
Policy dummy variable (X10)

表4

空间杜宾面板模型回归结果"

变量
Variable		 系数
Coefficient		 直接效应
Direct effect		 间接效应
Indirect effect		 总效应
Total effect
生产性土地面积比重
Proportion of productive land area (X1)		 0.8663*** 0.8852*** 0.3180** 1.2032***
人均粮食产量
Per capita grain yield (X2)		 0.4889** 0.4240** -0.2182* 0.2058*
灌溉水平
Irrigation level (X3)		 0.2631** 0.2136* 0.0116 0.2252*
人均GDP情况
Per capita GDP (X4)		 0.3591* 0.3619** 0.1007 0.4626
棉花比较效益
Comparative benefit of cotton (X5)		 1.0390* 1.0328* 0.3328*** 1.3656***
机械化水平
Mechanization level (X6)		 0.4320** 0.4186** -0.1245* 0.2911**
化肥施用量
Consumption of chemical fertilizers (X7)		 0.0772 0.0639 0.0281 0.0920
塑料薄膜使用情况
Consumption of plastic film (X8)		 0.1092 0.1164 0.0334 0.1498
交通运输网密度
Traffic network density (X9)		 -0.1840* 0.1526 -0.0214 0.1312*
政策虚拟变量
Policy dummy variable (X10)		 0.4798** 0.4173*** 0.1017** 0.5190***

图6

各变量对新疆棉花种植业地理集聚的影响程度"

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