作物学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (12): 1859-1867.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2019.94041
马春玥1,2,买买提·沙吾提1,2,3,*(),依尔夏提·阿不来提1,2,姚杰4
Chun-Yue MA1,2,Sawut Mamat1,2,3,*(),Ablet Ershat1,2,Jie YAO4
摘要:
新疆是我国最大的产棉基地, 研究新疆棉花种植业地理集聚特征对调整和优化农业结构布局、农民增收、促进棉花生产的可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于1988—2016年的新疆棉花生产数据, 使用区位商、区位基尼系数和空间自相关分析探究新疆棉花种植业发展的时空变化特征, 并运用空间面板数据模型定性、定量地分析了各影响因素对新疆棉花种植业地理集聚的影响程度, 揭示了新疆棉花种植业发展的主要驱动因素。结果表明, 新疆棉花种植面积经历了持续增长(1988—1999年)、缓慢减少(2000—2004年)以及波动增长(2005—2016年) 3个阶段, 2016年已占全国种植面积的3/5, 其专业化集聚水平自1992年起均高于全国其他地区, 主导地位日益增强; 新疆棉花种植业的区域特征明显, 南疆棉区的变化主导新疆棉花种植业的变化; 新疆棉花种植业的集聚水平自1988年起呈现出波动中下降后缓慢回升的趋势, 其高值集聚区由喀什地区转移至阿克苏地区的库车县、新和县等地, 高-低集聚、低-高集聚及低低集聚变化不大; 推动新疆棉花种植业地理集聚发展的主要因素有生产性土地面积比重、棉花比较收益、机械化水平以及政策因素。
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