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作物学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (4): 1004-1014.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2024.34098

• 耕作栽培·生理生化 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化背景下我国天麻种植适宜性和适宜区的评估

郝佳乐(), 赵炯超, 赵明宇, 王艺璇, 逯杰, 石晓宇, 高真真, 褚庆全()   

  1. 中国农业大学农学院 / 农业农村部农作制度重点实验室, 北京 100193
  • 收稿日期:2023-06-10 接受日期:2023-10-23 出版日期:2024-04-12 网络出版日期:2023-12-08
  • 通讯作者: * 褚庆全, E-mail: cauchu@cau.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:E-mail: sy20223010148@cau.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    云南省重大科技项目(202202AE090029)

Assessment of the cultivation suitability and suitable regions of Gastrodia elata under climate change in China

HAO Jia-Le(), ZHAO Jiong-Chao, ZHAO Ming-Yu, WANG Yi-Xuan, LU Jie, SHI Xiao-Yu, GAO Zhen-Zhen, CHU Qing-Quan()   

  1. College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University / Key Laboratory of Farming System, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100193, China
  • Received:2023-06-10 Accepted:2023-10-23 Published:2024-04-12 Published online:2023-12-08
  • Contact: * E-mail: cauchu@cau.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    Major Science and Technology Projects in Yunnan Province(202202AE090029)

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摘要：

气候变化通过改变物种栖息地的适宜性来影响物种的生长区域。天麻作为中国珍稀濒危药用植物, 评估其种植适宜区分布以及气候变化对天麻种植适宜性的影响可以为天麻生产布局提供重要依据。本研究采用MaxEnt模型, 基于我国天麻地理分布数据和环境数据, 模拟天麻种植适宜性和适宜区的空间分布和变化。结果表明, 影响天麻分布的主要环境因子是5月至7月太阳辐射量、10月至11月降水量、最冷月最低温和植被类型。我国天麻种植高适宜区主要分布在四川盆地周围的西南地区。1961—2020年, 天麻种植适宜性呈波动增加趋势, 种植适宜性提高的面积占全国陆地面积的9.10%, 主要分布在西南地区、华中、华东的部分地区以及陕西省。过去60年间5月至7月太阳辐射量总体上的下降是天麻种植适宜性提高的主要原因。本研究通过对天麻种植适宜性准确评估和种植适宜区变化因子解析, 为我国天麻生产与人工栽培选址提供科学依据, 对制定应对未来气候变化的对策具有借鉴意义。

关键词: 天麻, 种植适宜性, 环境因子, MaxEnt, ArcGIS

Abstract:

Climate change affects species growth areas by altering the suitability of their habitats. As a rare and endangered medical plant in China, the evaluation of the suitable distribution area and the impact of climate change on the suitability of Gastrodia elata can provide important information for the production layout of Gastrodia elata. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to simulate the spatial distribution and changes of the suitability and suitable area for Gastrodia elata cultivation from 1961 to 2020, based on geographic distribution and environmental data. Results showed that the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Gastrodia elata were solar radiation from May to July, precipitation in October and November, the minimum temperature in the coldest month, and vegetation type. The high suitable areas for Gastrodia elata cultivation in China were mainly distributed in the southwestern region around the Sichuan Basin. 1961 to 2020, the suitability for Gastrodia elata cultivation had shown a fluctuating increasing trend, with the area of improved suitability accounting for 9.10% of the total land area of China, mainly concentrated in Southwest China, the parts of central and eastern China, and Shaanxi province. The overall decrease in solar radiation from May to July over the past 60 years was the main reason for the increased suitability of asparagus cultivation. This study provided a scientific basis for the production and artificial cultivation site selection of Gastrodia elata in China, which provided reference significance for formulating strategies to respond to future climate change.

Key words: Gastrodia elata, planting suitability, environmental factors, MaxEnt model, ArcGIS

图1

我国标准气象站点与天麻种植分布点地理分布图 该图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS (2019) 1822号的标准地图制作, 底图边界无修改。"

表1

影响天麻种植分布的潜在环境因子"

潜在环境因子
Potential environmental factor		 意义
Meaning		 文献
References
5月至7月太阳辐射量(Solar_5to7)
Solar radiation from May to July		 反映天麻地面生长阶段光照吸收状况
Reflecting the light absorption status of the ground growth stage of Gastrodia elata		 [15]
10月至11月降水量(Pre_10to11)
Precipitation in October and November		 反映天麻关键生育时期水分供应情况
Reflecting water availability during the critical reproductive period of Gastrodia elata		 [23,16]
植被类型(VEG)
Vegetation		 天麻自然分布多需要一定的落叶阔叶林
Natural distribution of Gastrodia elata mostly requires a certain amount of deciduous broadleaf forest		 [24]
最冷月最低温(MINtem_CM)
Min temperature of coldest month		 天麻生长期内承受的最低温度
The minimum temperature to be tolerated during the growth period of Gastrodia elata 		[23]
等温性(ISO)
Isothermality		 天麻生长期内热量平均水平
Average heat level during the growth period of Gastrodia elata		 [23]
含粘量(SCS)
Soil sediment concentration		 反映天麻种植地土壤保水保肥能力
Reflects the soil water and fertility retention capacity of the Gastrodia elata cultivation sites		 [25]
降水变异系数(CVpre)
Precipitation variability		 天麻生长期降水量的季节性差异
Seasonal differences in precipitation during the growing season of Gastrodia elata 		[26]
坡度Slope 影响天麻空间分布
Influence on the spatial distribution of Gastrodia elata		 [24]
土壤有机碳(SOC)
Soil organic carbon		 反映天麻种植地土壤质量状况
Reflecting the soil quality of the Gastrodia elata cultivation sites		 [27]
坡向(ASPECT)
Slope		 影响天麻营养吸收状况和产量
Influence nutrient uptake status and yield of absorption conditions of Gastrodia elata 		[28]
土壤含水量(SWC)
Soil water content		 反映天麻种植地土壤水分状况
Reflecting the soil moisture status of the Gastrodia elata cultivation sites		 [27]

图2

受试者操作特征曲线(ROC) 红线是平均值, 蓝线为MaxEnt重复运行10次的响应曲线。"

图3

基于jackknife 检验的MaxEnt模型的正则化训练增益(a)和贡献百分比(b) 在(a)中, 红色柱状图显示了使用所有环境因子的模型的训练增益, 深蓝色柱状图显示了仅使用一种环境因子的模型的训练增益, 浅蓝色柱状图显示了除一种环境因子外使用所有环境因子的模型的训练增益。Veg: 植被类型; Solar_5to7: 5月至7月太阳辐射量; Pre_10to11: 10月至11月降水量; Mintem_CM: 最冷月最低温; CVpre: 降水变异系数; SCS: 土壤含沙量; SOC: 土壤有机碳; Slope: 坡度; ISO: 等温性; SWC: 含水量; Aspect: 坡向。"

表2

影响天麻种植适宜性主导环境因子阈值划分"

分类
Classification		 5月至7月太阳辐射量
Solar radiation from May to July (MJ m-2)		 10月至11月降水量 Precipitation in October and November (mm) 最冷月最低温
Minimum temperature
of coldest month (℃)		 植被类型
Vegetation
高适宜区
High suitable area		 1230.14-1598.53 79.58-159.81 -11.17 to -0.68 针叶林, 针阔叶混交林, 阔叶林
Coniferous forests, mixed coniferous, and broad-leaved forests, broad- leaved forests
中适宜区
Moderate suitable area		 1598.53-1713.89 72.66-78.20
161.19-209.60		 -13.83 to -11.46
-0.53 to -0.09		 灌丛, 栽培植被
Scrub and cultivated vegetation
低适宜区
Less suitable area		 1713.89-1810.64 67.13-72.66
209.60-238.65		 -14.72 to -13.98
0.21 to 1.98		 其他
Others
不适宜区
Unsuitable area		 <1230.14 or >1810.64 <67.13 or >238.65 < -14.72 or >1.98 荒漠, 草原, 草甸, 沼泽, 高山植被
Deserts, grasslands, meadows, swamps, and alpine vegetation

图4

我国天麻种植适宜区空间分布 该图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS (2019) 1822号的标准地图制作, 底图边界无修改。"

图5

我国天麻种植适宜区空间分布(a, b)及种植适宜性变化(c) 该图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS (2019) 1822号的标准地图制作, 底图边界无修改。"

表3

我国不同年代天麻种植适宜区分布面积"

适宜性划分
Suitability regionalization		 年份Years
1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2020
低适宜区Less suitable area 61.79 76.84 72.97 87.72 76.15 81.03
中适宜区Moderate suitable area 25.71 33.68 35.81 47.46 41.93 40.51
高适宜区High suitable area 15.09 21.83 24.60 40.63 32.49 26.66
总适宜区Total suitable area 102.59 132.35 133.38 175.81 150.57 148.20
不适宜区Unsuitable area 857.41 827.65 826.62 784.19 809.43 811.80
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