作物学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (7): 1709-1720.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2022.13042
王凯澄(), 赵炯超, 韩桐, 石晓宇, 高真真, 薄晓智, 陈阜, 褚庆全()
WANG Kai-Cheng(), ZHAO Jiong-Chao, HAN Tong, SHI Xiao-Yu, GAO Zhen-Zhen, BO Xiao-Zhi, CHEN Fu, CHU Qing-Quan()
摘要:
研究并揭示粮食生产格局及自然资源利用效率变化规律, 对于合理利用资源、保障国家粮食安全和实现可持续发展具有重要意义。本文利用ArcGIS空间分析方法, 基于1985—2015年中国县域粮食生产数据和全国683个气象站点数据, 分析了基于温度带分区的中国粮食生产格局变化及热量资源利用特征。研究表明, 在1985—2015年间, 中国粮食总产的90%左右由中温带、暖温带、北亚热带和中亚热带生产, 其占比分别为18.6%、25.6%、21.6%和25.9%。30年来一熟区的粮食产量比重增加了13.8%, 而二熟区和三熟区分别下降了2.7%和11.2%。其中一熟区的中温带粮食产量占比增加了13.9%, 播种面积和单产的同步增加是中温带粮食增产的驱动因素, 而三熟区中亚热带的粮食生产占比下降了13.9%。30年来不同温度带≥10℃年积温不断增加, 南方增温趋势较北方更明显, 但是热量资源利用效率增幅低于北方, 中国粮食生产格局变化与热量资源分布间存在“错位现象”。因此, 在进行区域粮食生产布局优化和策略制定时, 需要以区域自然资源特点为基础, 分析粮食生产与资源自然匹配的协调性, 从而提高中国粮食生产的资源利用效率。
[1] | 郑亚楠, 张凤荣, 谢臻, 张天柱, 李超, 王秀丽. 中国粮食生产时空演变规律与耕地可持续利用研究. 世界地理研究, 2019, 28(6): 120-131. |
Zheng Y N, Zhang F R, Xie Z, Zhang T Z, Li C, Wang X L. Research on the spatial-temporal evolution of grain production and sustainable use of cultivated land in China. World Reg Stud, 2019, 28(6): 120-131. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[2] | 武维华. “北粮南运”不利于可持续发展. 中国经贸导刊, 2015, (25): 66. |
Wu W H. “North grain transport to the south” was not conducive to sustainable development. Chin Econ Trade Her, 2015, (25): 66. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[3] |
Dong J W, Liu J Y, Tao F L, Xu X L, Wang J B. Spatio-temporal changes in annual accumulated temperature in China and the effects on cropping systems, 1980s to 2000. Clim Res, 2009, 40(1): 37-48.
doi: 10.3354/cr00823 |
[4] |
傅伯杰. 地理学综合研究的途径与方法: 格局与过程耦合. 地理学报, 2014, 69: 1052-1059.
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201408002 |
Fu B J. The integrated studies of geography: coupling of patterns and processes. Acta Geogr Sin, 2014, 69: 1052-1059. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[5] | 白冰, 杨雨豪, 王小慧, 贾浩, 吴尧, 史磊刚, 尹小刚, 陈阜. 基于农作制分区的1985-2015年中国小麦生产时空变化. 作物学报, 2019, 45: 1554-1564. |
Bai B, Yang Y H, Wang X H, Jia H, Wu Y, Shi L G, Yin X G, Chen F. Spatio-temporal changes of China’s wheat production based on division of farming system during 1985-2015. Acta Agron Sin, 2019, 45: 1554-1564 (in Chinese with English abstract) . | |
[6] | 于元赫, 吴健, 李子君, 胡蕾. 山东省粮食生产时空格局演变及安全评价. 中国农业大学学报, 2020, 25(9): 176-186. |
Yu Y H, Wu J, Li Z J, Hu L. Spatial-temporal patterns variation of grain production and security evaluation in Shandong province. J China Agric Univ, 2020, 25(9): 176-186. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[7] | 王小慧, 姜雨林, 刘洋, 卢捷, 尹小刚, 史磊刚, 黄晶, 褚庆全, 陈阜. 基于县域单元的我国水稻生产时空动态变化. 作物学报, 2018, 44: 1704-1712. |
Wang X H, Jiang Y L, Liu Y, Lu J, Yin X G, Shi L G, Huang J, Chu Q Q, Chen F. Spatio-temporal changes of rice production in China based on county unit. Acta Agron Sin, 2018, 44: 1704-1712. (in Chinese with English abstract)
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2018.01704 |
|
[8] |
Zhao J, Yang X G.Average amount and stability of available agro-climate resources in the main maize cropping regions in China during1981-2010. J Meteorol Res, 2018, 32: 146-156.
doi: 10.1007/s13351-018-7122-x |
[9] | 崔读昌. 中国粮食作物气候资源利用效率及其提高的途径. 中国农业气象, 2001, 22(2): 26-33. |
Cui D C. Climatic resources utilization coefficiency of cereal crops in China and development measures. Chin J Agrometeorol, 2001, 22(2): 26-33. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[10] | 廖成泉, 胡银根, 章晓曼. 基于四阶段DEA-Tobit的湖北省耕地资源利用效率及其影响因素研究. 农业现代化研究, 2015, 36: 876-882. |
Liao C Q, Hu Y G, Zhang X M. Research on the efficiency and the influencing factors of arable land utilization in Hubei province based on the four-stage DEA and Tobit model. Res Agric Modern, 2015, 36: 876-882. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[11] | 赵放, 王锐, 赵慧颖, 李秀芬, 林伟楠, 田宝星. 寒地玉米生产热量利用效率潜力演变特征. 玉米科学, 2019, 27(3): 73-81. |
Zhao F, Wang R, Zhao Y H, Li X F, Lin W N, Tian B X. Evolution characteristics of potential heat utilization efficiency in maize production in cold region. J Maize Sci, 2019, 27(3): 73-81. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[12] | 户艳领, 陈志国, 刘振国. 基于熵值法的河北省农业用水利用效率研究. 中国农业资源与区划, 2015, 36(3): 136-142. |
Hu Y L, Chen Z G, Liu Z G. Study of the utilization efficiency of water resources in Hebei province based on the entropy method. Chin J Agric Res Reg Plan, 2015, 36(3): 136-142. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[13] | 刘玉杰, 杨艳昭, 封志明. 中国粮食生产的区域格局变化及其可能影响. 资源科学, 2007, 29(2): 8-14. |
Liu Y J, Yang Y Z, Feng Z M. The change of the main regions for China’s foodgrain production and its implications. Res Sci, 2007, 29(2): 8-14. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[14] | 洪舒蔓, 郝晋珉, 周宁, 陈丽, 吕振宇. 黄淮海平原耕地变化及对粮食生产格局变化的影响. 农业工程学报, 2014, 30(21): 268-277. |
Hong S M, Hao J M, Zhou N, Chen L, Lyu Z Y. Change of cultivated land and its impact on grain production pattern in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Trans CSAE, 2014, 30(21): 268-277. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[15] | 王凯澄, 韩桐, 臧华栋, 陈阜, 薄晓智, 褚庆全. 基于地貌分区的近30年中国粮食生产空间分异研究. 作物学报, 12: 2501-2510. |
Wang K C, Han T, Zang H D, Chen F, Bo X Z, Chu Q Q. Spatial distribution of Chinese grain production in the past 30 years based on geomorphological division. Acta Agron Sin, 12: 2501-2510. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[16] | 郑景云, 卞娟娟, 葛全胜, 郝志新, 尹云鹤, 廖要明. 1981-2010年中国气候区划. 科学通报, 2013, 58: 3088-3099. |
Zheng J Y, Bian J J, Ge Q S, Hao Z X, Yin Y H, Liao Y M.The climate regionalization in China for 1981-2010. Chin Sci Bull, 2013, 58: 3088-3099. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[17] | 韩湘玲, 刘巽浩, 高亮之, 李林. 中国农作物种植制度气候区划. 耕作与栽培, 1986, (增刊1): 2-19. |
Han X L, Liu X H, Gao L Z, Li L. Climatic regionalization of crop planting system in China. Cult Plant, 1986, (S1): 2-19. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[18] |
胡文海. 中部地区粮食生产比较优势分析与基地建设. 地理科学, 2015, 35: 293-298.
doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.03.293 |
Hu W H. Comparative advantage of grain production in central China and the base construction. Sci Geogr Sin, 2015, 35: 293-298. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[19] | 沈瑱, 曾燕, 肖卉, 费松. 江苏省日照时数的气候特征分析. 气象科学, 2007, 27: 425-429. |
Shen Z, Zeng Y, Xiao H, Fei S. Changes of sunshine hours in the recent 40 years over Jiangsu province. J Meteorol Sci, 2007, 27: 425-429. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[20] |
徐海亚, 朱会义. 基于自然地理分区的1990-2010年中国粮食生产格局变化. 地理学报, 2015, 70: 582-590.
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201504006 |
Xu H Y, Zhu H Y.Spatial change of China’s grain production based on geographical division of natural factors during1990-2010. Acta Geogr Sin, 2015, 70: 582-590. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[21] |
戴声佩, 李海亮, 罗红霞, 赵一飞. 1960-2011年华南地区界限温度10℃积温时空变化分析. 地理学报, 2014, 69: 650-660.
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201405008 |
Dai S P, Li H L, Luo H X, Zhao Y F. The spatial-temporal change of active accumulated temperature ≥10℃ in Southern China from 1960 to 2011. Acta Geogr Sin, 2014, 69: 650-660. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[22] | Hutchinson M F. The application of thin plate splines to continent-wide data assimilation. In:Jasper J D, ed.ed Data Assimilation Systems. Melbourne:Bureau of Meteorology, 1991. pp 104-113. |
[23] | 赵美艳, 余君, 胡芸芸. 基于局部薄盘光滑样条函数的重庆地区气温空间插值. 陕西气象, 2021, (1): 50-55. |
Zhao M Y, Yu J, Hu Y Y. Spatial interpolation of temperature in Chongqing based on local thin plate smoothing spline function. J Shaanxi Meteorol, 2021, (1): 50-55 (in Chinese with Chinese abstract). | |
[24] |
Hijmans R J, Cameron S E, Parra J L, Jones P G, Jarvis A. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol, 2005, 25: 1965-1978.
doi: 10.1002/joc.1276 |
[25] | 钱永兰, 吕厚荃, 张艳红. 基于ANUSPLIN软件的逐日气象要素插值方法应用与评估. 气象与环境学报, 2010, 26(2): 7-15. |
Qian Y L, Lyu H Q, Zhang Y H. Application and assessment of spatial interpolation method on daily meteorological elements based on ANUSPLIN software. J Meteorol Environ, 2010, 26(2): 7-15. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[26] | 刘巽浩, 陈阜, 吴尧. 多熟种植--中国农业的中流砥柱. 作物杂志, 2015, (6): 1-9. |
Liu X H, Chen F, Wu Y. Multiple cropping: the principal part of China’s agriculture. Crops, 2015, (6): 1-9. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[27] | 郑有贵, 邝婵娟, 焦红坡. 南粮北调向北粮南运演变成因的探讨--兼南北方两个区域粮食生产发展优势和消费比较. 中国经济史研究, 1999, (1): 99-106. |
Zheng Y G, Kuang C J, Jiao H P. Discussion on the causes of the evolution of the South-to-North grain diversion to the North-to- South grain transport-Concurrently, the advantages of the development and consumption of grain production in the two regions. Res Chin Econ Hist, 1999, (1): 99-106. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[28] | 黄国勤. 论提高我国南方耕地复种指数. 自然资源, 1995, (1): 30-37. |
Huang G Q. On the increase of multiple cropping index of cultivated land in Southern China. Res Sci, 1995, (1): 30-37. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[29] |
刘纪远, 匡文慧, 张增祥, 徐新良, 秦元伟, 宁佳, 周万村, 张树文, 李仁东, 颜长珍, 吴世新, 史学正, 江南, 于东升, 潘贤章, 迟文峰. 20世纪80年代末以来中国土地利用变化的基本特征与空间格局. 地理学报, 2014, 69: 3-14.
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201401001 |
Liu J Y, Kuang W H, Zhang Z X, Xu X L, Qin Y W, Ning J, Zhou W S, Zhang S W, Li R D, Yan C Z, Wu S X, Shi X Z, Jiang N, Yu D S, Pan X Z, Chi W F. Spatiotemporal characteristics, patterns and causes of land use changes in China since the late 1980s. Acta Geogr Sin, 2014, 69: 3-14. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[30] | 辛良杰, 李秀彬. 近年来我国南方双季稻区复种的变化及其政策启示. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24: 58-65. |
Xin L J, Li X B. Changes of multiple cropping in double cropping rice area of southern China and its policy implications. J Nat Res, 2009, 24: 58-65. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[31] | 张志高, 范留飞, 马晓慧, 蔺敬妍, 朱昊冉, 邱双娟. 2007-2015年新疆粮食增产格局及贡献因素研究. 干旱区资源与环境, 2018, 32(9): 71-75. |
Zhang Z G, Fan L F, Ma X H, Lin J Y, Zhu H R, Qiu S J. Spatial-temporal patterns of Xinjiang’s grain output increase and the contribution factors during2007-2015. J Arid Land Res Environ, 2018, 32(9): 71-75. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[32] | 张正斌, 陈兆波, 孙传范, 徐萍. 气候变化与东北地区粮食新增. 中国生态农业学报, 2011, 19: 193-196. |
Zhang Z B, Chen Z B, Sun C F, Xu P. Grain increase in Northeast China under climatic change. Chin J Eco-Agric, 2011, 19: 193-196. (in Chinese with English abstract)
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1011.2011.00193 |
|
[33] | 孙双双. 内蒙古: 保持粮食总产量稳定不变推进现代畜牧业做精做优. 中国食品工业, 2021, (增刊1): 17. |
Sun S S. Inner Mongolia: keep the total grain output stable and promote the modern animal husbandry to be refined and optimized. China Food Ind, 2021, (S1): 17 (in Chinese with Chinese abstract). | |
[34] | 史海滨, 杨树青, 李瑞平, 李仙岳, 李为萍, 闫建文, 苗庆丰, 李祯. 内蒙古河套灌区节水灌溉与水肥高效利用研究展望. 灌溉排水学报, 2020, 39(11): 1-12. |
Shi H B, Yang S Q, Li R P, Li X Y, Li W P, Yan J W, Miao Q F, Li Z. Water-saving irrigation and utilization efficiency of water and fertilizer in Hetao Irrigation District of Inner Mongolia: prospect for future research. J Irrig Drain, 2020, 39(11): 1-12. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[35] |
徐文明, 朱显平. “一带一路”倡议下东北地区粮食产业转型升级路径. 地理科学, 2020, 40: 2046-2054.
doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.12.011 |
Xu W M, Zhu X P. The path of transformation and updating of food industrial in northeast region in the perspective of the belt and road initiative. Sci Geogr Sin, 2020, 40: 2046-2054. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[36] | 何秀丽, 刘文新. 中国东北粮食安全评价及政策模拟. 农业现代化研究, 2012, 33: 678-681. |
He X L, Liu W X. The assessment and policy simulation of grain security of Northeast China. Res Agric Modern, 2012, 33: 678-681. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[37] | 张雪靓, 孔祥斌. 黄淮海平原地下水危机下的耕地资源可持续利用. 中国土地科学, 2014, 28(5): 90-96. |
Zhang X J, Kong X B. Cropland sustainable use impacted by groundwater depletion in China’s HHH Plains. Chin Land Sci, 2014, 28(5): 90-96. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[38] | 韩晓增, 王守宇, 宋春雨, 乔云发. 土地利用/覆盖变化对黑土生态环境的影响. 地理科学, 2005, 25: 203-208. |
Han X Z, Wang S Y, Song C Y, Qiao Y F. Effect of land use and cover change on ecological environment in black soil region. Sci Geogr Sin, 2005, 25: 203-208. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[39] | 李帅, 张勃, 马彬, 侯启, 何航. 基于格点数据的中国1961-2016年≥5℃、≥10℃有效积温时空演变. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35: 1216-1227. |
Li S, Zhang B, Ma B, Hou Q, He H. Spatiotemporal evolution of effective accumulated temperatures of ≥5℃ and ≥10℃ based on grid data in China from 1961 to 2016. J Nat Res, 2020, 35: 1216-1227. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[40] | 胡琦, 潘学标, 邵长秀, 张丹, 王潇潇, 韦潇宇. 1961-2010年中国农业热量资源分布和变化特征. 中国农业气象, 2014, 35: 119-127. |
Hu Q, Pan X B, Shao C X, Zhang D, Wang X X, Wei X Y.Distribution and variation of China agricultural heat resources in1961-2010. Chin J Agrometeorol, 2014, 35: 119-127. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[41] |
Liu X Q, Liu Y S, Liu Z J, Chen Z F. Impacts of climatic warming on cropping system borders of China and potential adaptation strategies for regional agriculture development. Sci Total Environ, 2021, 755: 142415.
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142415 |
[42] | 王勇, 张镇涛, 张方亮, 郭世博, 杨晓光. 气候变化背景下玉米品种更替对新疆光热资源利用效率的影响. 中国农业气象, 2020, 41: 331-344. |
Wang Y, Zhang Z T, Zhang F L, Guo S B, Yang X G. Impact of climate change and varieties replacement on maize yield and resource use efficiency in Xinjiang. Chin J Agrometeorol, 2020, 41: 331-344. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[43] | 黄灿, 江丽, 陈鑫, 汪芳甜, 安萍莉. 地膜覆盖和育苗移栽技术对农作物产量和水热资源利用的影响. 中国农业大学学报, 2018, 23(12): 1-12. |
Huang C, Jiang L, Chen X, Wang F T, An P L. Research on the effects of plastic film mulching and seeding transplanting on crop yield and water and heat resource utilization. J China Agric Univ, 2018, 23(12):1-12. (in Chinese with English abstract) | |
[44] |
Jiang Y L, Yin X G, Wang X H, Zhang L, Lu Z, Lei Y D, Chu Q Q, Chen F. Impacts of global warming on the cropping systems of China under technical improvements from 1961 to 2016. Agron J, 2021, 113: 187-199.
doi: 10.1002/agj2.20497 |
[45] |
Qiu B W, Yang X, Tang Z H, Chen C C, Li H W, Berry J. Urban expansion or poor productivity: explaining regional differences in cropland abandonment in China during the early 21st century. Land Degrad Dev, 2020, 31: 2540-2551.
doi: 10.1002/ldr.3617 |
[1] | 郑曙峰, 刘小玲, 王维, 徐道青, 阚画春, 陈敏, 李淑英. 论两熟制棉花绿色化轻简化机械化栽培[J]. 作物学报, 2022, 48(3): 541-552. |
[2] | 王凯澄, 韩桐, 臧华栋, 陈阜, 薄晓智, 褚庆全. 基于地貌分区的近30年中国粮食生产空间分异研究[J]. 作物学报, 2021, 47(12): 2501-2510. |
[3] | 聂良鹏,郭利伟,牛海燕,魏杰,李增嘉,宁堂原. 轮耕对小麦-玉米两熟农田耕层构造及作物产量与品质的影响[J]. 作物学报, 2015, 41(03): 468-478. |
[4] | 朱大威;金之庆. 气候及其变率变化对东北地区粮食生产的影响[J]. 作物学报, 2008, 34(09): 1588-1597. |
[5] | 金之庆, 葛道阔, 石春林, 高亮之. 东北平原适应全球气候变化的若干粮食生产对策的模拟研究[J]. 作物学报, 2002, 28(01): 24-31. |
|