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作物学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (12): 3352-3363.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2023.31007

• 耕作栽培·生理生化 • 上一篇    下一篇

1960—2020年新疆主要作物需水量时空特征分析

何旭刚(), 买买提·沙吾提*(), 夏梓洋, 师君银, 贺小宁, 盛艳芳, 李荣鹏   

  1. 新疆大学地理与遥感科学学院 / 新疆绿洲生态教育部重点实验室 / 新疆智慧城市与环境建模自治区普通高校重点实验室, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830017
  • 收稿日期:2023-01-30 接受日期:2023-06-29 出版日期:2023-12-12 网络出版日期:2023-07-13
  • 通讯作者: * 买买提·沙吾提, E-mail: korxat@xju.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:E-mail: hexugang@stu.xju.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    新疆自然科学计划(自然科学基金)联合基金项目(2021D01C055)

Spatio-temporal characteristics of water requirement of main crops in Xinjiang from 1960 to 2020

HE Xu-Gang(), MAMAT Sawut*(), XIA Zi-Yang, SHI Jun-Yin, HE Xiao-Ning, SHENG Yan-Fang, LI Rong-Peng   

  1. College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University / Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University / Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Ministry of Education, Urumqi 830017, Xinjiang, China
  • Received:2023-01-30 Accepted:2023-06-29 Published:2023-12-12 Published online:2023-07-13
  • Contact: * E-mail: korxat@xju.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    Xinjiang Natural Science Program (Natural Science Foundation) Joint Fund Project(2021D01C055)

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摘要：

作物需水量和作物灌溉需水量的时空分析对水资源优化配置和灌溉制度制定至关重要。为了解新疆主要作物棉花、春小麦、冬小麦和玉米生育期需水量和灌溉需水量的时空特征及影响因素, 本文基于1960—2020年逐日气象观测数据, 采用Penman-Monteith公式和单作物系数法, 利用去趋势预置白(TFPW)的Mann-Kendall (TFPW-MK)研究4种作物需水量变化特征, 并通过重标极差(R/S)分析法预测未来作物需水量和灌溉需水量的时空演变趋势; 运用随机森林模型的重要协变量特征识别原理, 分析气象因素与作物需水量的重要性排名, 探究了作物需水量的变化成因。结果表明: 1) 61年来, 新疆主要作物需水量总体呈现“先增后减又增”的变化趋势; 作物需水量和灌溉需水量从大到小均依次为: 棉花>玉米>冬小麦>春小麦; 空间上呈现“南疆>北疆、东南>西北、东部>西部”的格局; 主要作物需水量变化范围为: 棉花为381.20~991.20 mm (均值为654.94 mm), 玉米为350.26~924.48 mm (均值为607.98 mm), 春小麦为361.96~709.69 mm (均值为464.89 mm), 冬小麦为266.47~753.62 mm (均值为495.7 0 mm); 灌溉需水量变化范围为: 棉花为49.49~975.88 mm (均值为563.19 mm), 玉米为52.47~910.85 mm (均值为530.18 mm), 春小麦为42.58~701.29mm (均值为409.28 mm), 冬小麦为21.94~741.77 mm (均值为418.26 mm), 自80年代中后期开始, 灌溉需水量下降幅度大于需水量。2) TFPW-MK分析中, 近61年来, 分布在塔里木盆地北部边缘的沙雅和阿克苏、东疆的巴里坤等12个站点需水量呈上升趋势; 分布在塔里木盆地中部的塔中、北疆的克拉玛依和南疆的阿图什等区域的27个站点需水量逐步降低; 其余站点呈上下波动。3) 使用R/S方法对未来需水量的预测中, 北疆的塔城、托里、富蕴和乌鲁木齐站, 东疆的巴里坤, 南疆的沙雅、乌恰、塔中、且末和柯坪等站点4种作物需水量和灌溉需水量在未来会减少, 而东疆的红柳河、巴里坤与巴音布鲁克的春、冬小麦需水量在未来呈现上升趋势。4) 在作物全育期中, 风速和气温是新疆主要作物需水量的最重要影响因素, 而降水对新疆主要作物需水量的重要性最小。该研究较为全面的为新疆农业高效用水和灌溉措施的制定提供决策和依据。

关键词: 新疆农作物, 需水量, TFPW-MK法, R/S分析法, 随机森林

Abstract:

Spatio-temporal analysis of crop water requirement and crop irrigation water requirement is crucial to the optimal allocation of water resources and the formulation of irrigation systems. The objective of this study is to understand the spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of the water requirement during the growth period and irrigation water requirement of the main crops in Xinjiang, cotton, spring wheat, winter wheat, and corn. Based on the daily meteorological observation data from 1960 to 2020, the Penman-Monteith formula and the single crop coefficient method were adopted in this study, and Mann-Kendall (TFPW-MK) of Detrended Preset White (TFPW) was used to study the changing characteristics of water requirement of four crops. The temporal and spatial evolution trend of crop water requirement and irrigation water requirement were predicted by rescaled range (R/S) analysis. Using the principle of important covariate feature identification of the random forest model, the importance ranking of meteorological factors and crop water requirement was analyzed, and the causes of changes in crop water requirement were explored. The results show that: 1) the water requirement of major crops in Xinjiang had generally shown a trend of “increase first, then decrease and then increase” for 61 year. The order of crop water demand and irrigation water requirement from large to small was: cotton > corn > winter wheat > spring wheat. In terms of space, there was a spatial distribution of “Southern Xinjiang>Northern Xinjiang, Southeast>Northwest, East>Western”. The variation range of water requirement for major crops was: cotton 381.20-991.20 mm (mean 654.94 mm), corn 350.26-924.48 mm (mean 607.98 mm), spring wheat 361.96-709.69 mm (average 464.89 mm), winter wheat 266.47-753.62 mm (average 495.7 0 mm). The range of irrigation water requirement was: cotton 49.49-975.88 mm (average 563.19 mm), corn 52.47-910.85 mm (average 530.18 mm), spring wheat 42.58-701.29 mm (average 409.28 mm), winter wheat 21.94-741.77 mm (average 418.26 mm). Since the middle and late 1980s, irrigation water requirement decreased more than water requirement. 2) According to the TFPW-MK analysis, in the past 61 years, the water requirement of 12 stations mainly distributed in the northern edge of the Tarim Basin, including Shaya and Aksu, and Baekol in the eastern Xinjiang, showed an upward trend. The water requirement of 27 stations in Karamay in Xinjiang and Artux in southern Xinjiang gradually decreased; the rest of the stations fluctuated up and down. 3) In the prediction of future water demand using the R/S method, four crop water demand and irrigation water demand at Tacheng, Toli, Fuyun and Urumqi stations in northern Xinjiang, Baekol in eastern Xinjiang, and Shaya, Wuqia, Tazhong, Qiemo and Kalpin stations in southern Xinjiang will decrease in the future, while spring and winter wheat water demand at Hongliuhe, Baekol and Bayanbulak in eastern Xinjiang will show an increasing trend in the future. 4) During the crop growth period, wind speed and temperature were the most important factors affecting the water requirement of major crops in Xinjiang, while precipitation was the least important factor for the water requirement of major crops in Xinjiang. This research comprehensively provides decision-making and basis for the formulation of high-efficiency agricultural water use and irrigation measures in Xinjiang.

Key words: crops in Xinjiang, water requirement, TFPW-MK method, R/S analysis method, random forest

图1

研究区概况图 该图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS (2019) 1822号的标准地图制作, 底图边界无修改。"

表1

新疆不同作物逐月作物系数"

作物
Crops		 月份Month 均值Mean
Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
棉花Cotton / / / 0.27 0.55 0.69 1.05 1.13 0.50 0.28 / / 0.64
春小麦Spring wheat / / 0.27 0.50 1.06 0.65 0.14 / / / / / 0.53
冬小麦Winter wheat 0.29 0.32 0.66 0.84 1.02 0.24 0.13 / 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.43
玉米Maize / / / 0.23 0.46 0.78 1.13 0.51 0.32 / / / 0.57

图2

4种作物生育期多年平均需水量、灌溉需水量与有效降水量 a~d: 棉花、玉米、春小麦和冬小麦需水量; a′~d′: 棉花、玉米、春小麦和冬小麦灌溉需水量; a′′~d′′: 分别为棉花、玉米、春小麦和冬小麦有效降水量(mm)。"

图3

4种作物有效降水量/需水量/灌溉需水量多年变化趋势"

图4

TFPW-MK趋势检验法Z统计值"

图5

R/S方法4种作物需水量与灌溉需水量预测的H指数分布 a~d: 棉花、玉米、春小麦和冬小麦需水量预测; a′~d′: 棉花、玉米、春小麦和冬小麦灌溉需水量预测。"

图6

气象因子重要性评价 RHU: 相对湿度; SSD: 日照时数; TEM: 气温; WIN: 风速; PRE: 降水; Rn: 净辐射。"

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