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作物学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (11): 2860-2869.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2024.44005

• 耕作栽培·生理生化 • 上一篇    下一篇

三七种植适宜区的分布及其对气候变化的响应

王露1(), 赵炯超1, 王艺璇1, 米艳华2, 张宁怡1, 赵明宇1, 褚庆全1,*()   

  1. 1中国农业大学农学院, 北京 100193
    2云南省农业科学院质量标准与检测技术研究所, 云南昆明 650205
  • 收稿日期:2024-01-07 接受日期:2024-06-20 出版日期:2024-11-12 网络出版日期:2024-07-17
  • 通讯作者: *褚庆全, E-mail: cauchu@cau.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:E-mail: Rachel_9077@cau.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    云南省重大科技专项项目(202202AE090029);中国农业大学大学生创新训练项目(X2022100190356)

Spatial distribution of cultivation suitable area for Panax notoginseng and its response to climate change

WANG Lu1(), ZHAO Jiong-Chao1, WANG Yi-Xuan1, MI Yan-Hua2, ZHANG Ning-Yi1, ZHAO Ming-Yu1, CHU Qing-Quan1,*()   

  1. 1College of Agronomy, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    2Institute of Agricultural Quality Standard & Testing Technique, Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Kunming 650205, Yunnan, China
  • Received:2024-01-07 Accepted:2024-06-20 Published:2024-11-12 Published online:2024-07-17
  • Contact: *E-mail: cauchu@cau.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    Major Science and Technology Projects in Yunnan Province(202202AE090029);College Students Innovation and Training Project of China Agricultural University(X2022100190356)

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摘要：

探究气候变化背景下三七种植适宜区的时空变化特征可为三七引种栽培、规模生产以及产业发展提供理论参考。基于云南省131条三七地理分布数据和15个环境变量, 利用MaxEnt模型分析影响三七分布的主导因子, 划分云南省三七种植适宜区, 明确1961—2020年间云南省三七种植适宜区变化特征。研究结果表明: (1) 影响三七分布的主导因子和对应的最适宜区的阈值分别为平均气温日较差(小于10.0℃)、最高气温≥33℃天数(少于5 d)、坡向(北向)、≥10℃年积温(4708.0~5331.9℃ d)、年日照时数(1636.7~1963.3 h)和降水季节性差异(92%~96%)。(2) 三七种植适宜区主要集中在云南省东南部, 包括文山、红河、昆明、玉溪和曲靖等地, 约占云南省国土面积的4.8%。(3) 1961— 2020年间的气候变化提高了云南三七的种植适宜性和适宜区面积, 适宜性提高的区域约占全省的18.1%。(4) 60多年间, 云南省三七最适宜区界限呈向北扩张趋势, 适宜区呈向高海拔、高纬度区域迁移的趋势。本研究对于制定合理的云南省三七产业布局和降低气候变化对三七生产的潜在风险, 以及农业土地资源管理利用提供理论基础和技术支撑。

关键词: 三七, MaxEnt模型, 气候变化, 主导因子, 种植适宜区

Abstract:

Understanding the dynamic spatiotemporal changes in suitable cultivation areas for Panax notoginseng in Yunnan province amid climate change is crucial for guiding its introduction, cultivation, and large-scale industrial development. Utilizing 131 geographical distribution data points of Panax notoginseng in Yunnan province and 15 environmental variables, we employed the MaxEnt model to analyze the primary factors influencing its distribution and to delineate the suitable cultivation areas and their variations from 1961 to 2020. Our analysis identified key factors, including mean daily temperature range (<10.0℃), the number of days with maximum temperature ≥ 33℃ (<5 days), aspect (north-facing slopes), annual accumulation temperature ≥ 10℃ (4708.0-5331.9 ℃ d), annual sunshine duration (1636.7-1963.3 h), and seasonal variation in precipitation (92%-96%). Suitable cultivation areas for Panax notoginseng were primarily concentrated in southeastern Yunnan Province, encompassing Wenshan, Honghe, Kunming, Yuxi, and Qujing, comprising approximately 4.8% of the entire province. Our findings indicate that climate change from 1961 to 2020 has led to an 18.1% expansion in suitable areas for Panax notoginseng cultivation across Yunnan province. Moreover, over the past six decades, there has been a noticeable northward expansion of the optimal boundary for Panax notoginseng, accompanied by an overall improvement in its suitability amid climate fluctuations. This study provides a theoretical framework and technical support for devising a rational industrial layoutfor Panax notoginseng in Yunnan province, thereby mitigating the potential risks posed by climate change to its production and facilitating the effective management and utilization of agricultural land resources.

Key words: Panax notoginseng, MaxEnt model, climate change, dominant factors, cultivation suitability

图1

云南省气象站点和三七的地理分布点 该图基于国家地理信息公共服务平台下载的审图号为GS (2024) 0650号标准地图制作, 底图边界无修改。"

表1

影响三七分布的环境变量及其贡献率"

分类
Type		 名称
Description		 贡献率
Contribution		 参考文献
References
气候
Climate factor		 平均气温日较差Mean of daily temperature range (℃) 41.8 [25]
最高气温≥33℃天数Number of days with maximum temperature ≥33℃ (d) 11.4 [23]
年日照时数Annual sunshine duration (h) 6.1 [24]
降水季节性差异Seasonal differences in precipitation (%) 5.8 [25]
4-6月累积降水量Accumulation precipitation from April to June (mm) 4.9 [24]
≥10℃年积温 ≥10℃ annual accumulation temperature (℃ d) 9.2 [24]
土壤
Soil factor		 酸碱度pH 0.1 [30⇓-32]
含沙量Percentage sand (%) 1.2
含黏量Percentage clay (%) 1.8
有机碳含量Percentage of organic carbon (%) 1.0
阳离子交换量Cation exchange capacity (cmol kg-1) 0.2
容重Bulk density (kg m-3) 0.3
地形
Topographic
factor		 海拔Elevation (m) 5.5 [25]
坡向Aspect 10.5
坡度Slope (°) 0.2

图2

三七种植适宜性评价MaxEnt模型的ROC曲线"

图3

影响三七分布的环境变量刀切图 pH: 土壤酸碱度; BD: 土壤容重; Dem: 海拔; Aspect: 坡向; Slope: 坡度; Sand: 土壤含沙量; Clay: 土壤含黏量; Y_ST: 年日照时数; SOC: 土壤有机碳含量; P_M4_6: 4-6月降水量; CEC: 土壤阳离子交换量; ACT10: ≥10℃年积温; PMCV: 降水季节性差异; DTD: 平均气温日较差; Day33: 最高气温≥33℃天数。"

表2

三七不同适宜性环境因子阈值划分"

分类
Classification		 平均气温日较差
Mean of daily temperature range
(℃)		 最高气温≥33℃天数
Number of days with maximum temperature ≥33℃ (d)		 坡向
Aspect
(°)		 ≥10℃年积温
≥10℃ annual
accumulation temperature
(℃ d)		 年日照时数
Annual
sunshine
duration (h)		 降水季节性差异
Seasonal differences
in precipitation
(%)
最适宜 Optimum <10.0 <5.8 <3.4 4708.0-5331.9 1636.7-1963.3 92-96
适宜Suitable <10.3 5.8-6.1 <5.0 4689.1-6239.5 1433.3-2116.7 87-98
次适宜Less suitable <10.9 6.1-36.3 <10.0 4235.3-6258.4 <2156.7 <100
不适宜 Unsuitable >10.9 >36.3 >10.0 <4235.3, >6258.4 >2156.7

图4

1961-2020年三七种植适宜区的空间变化 该图基于国家地理信息公共服务平台下载的审图号为GS (2024) 0650号标准地图制作, 底图边界无修改。a: 1961-1970年; b: 1971-1980年; c: 1981-1990年; d: 1991-2000年; e: 2001-2010年; f: 2011-2020年。"

图5

云南省三七种植适宜性对气候变化的响应 该图基于国家地理信息公共服务平台下载的审图号为GS (2024) 0650号标准地图制作, 底图边界无修改。a: 1961-1990年; b: 1991-2020年; c: 1961-2020年。"

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