作物学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (10): 1576-1585.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2019.81076
孟繁圆1,冯利平1,*(),张丰瑶1,张祎2,伍露1,王春雷1,闫锦涛1,彭明喜1,莫志鸿3,余卫东4
MENG Fan-Yuan1,FENG Li-Ping1,*(),ZHANG Feng-Yao1,ZHANG Yi2,WU Lu1,WANG Chun-Lei1,YAN Jin-Tao1,PENG Ming-Xi1,MO Zhi-Hong3,YU Wei-Dong4
摘要:
利用我国北部冬麦区43个气象站点1951—2014年气象资料, 综合考虑越冬期最大降温幅度、极端最低气温、负积温、平均气温、降水和风速等冬小麦越冬冻害致灾因子, 采用主成分法构建冬小麦冻害指数(FII), FII值越大, 冬小麦遭受冻害越严重。结合历史冻害灾情资料, 验证冻害指数在研究区域的适应性。采用M-K方法分析冬小麦冻害的突变特征, 探究北部冬麦区越冬冻害的时空分布特征。结果表明, FII能较好地反映北部冬麦区冬小麦冻害情况。近60年北部冬麦区冬小麦冻害指数的年际变化均呈显著下降趋势。1980年前后冻害指数发生突变, 气候变暖后我国北部冬麦区冬小麦冻害发生的频率、程度和范围明显减少; 而由于气候变化的不稳定性增加, 自2000年以来, 冬小麦中度到重度冻害有所增加。冻害指数的空间分布总体呈现随着纬度和海拔高度的增加而加重的趋势。燕太山麓平原副区遭受冻害最为严重, 黄土高原沟壑副区和晋冀山地盆地副区遭受冻害较轻。
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