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作物学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (5): 1305-1315.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2023.22026

• 耕作栽培·生理生化 • 上一篇    下一篇

1981—2010年长江中下游地区单季稻生殖生长期对气候变化和技术进步的响应

刘二华1,2,3(), 周广胜1,2,3,4,*(), 武炳义2, 宋艳玲1,3, 何奇瑾4, 吕晓敏1,3, 周梦子1,3   

  1. 1中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081
    2复旦大学大气科学研究院, 上海 200439
    3中国气象科学研究院与郑州大学生态气象联合实验室, 河南郑州 450001
    4中国农业大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100193
  • 收稿日期:2022-04-30 接受日期:2022-10-10 出版日期:2023-05-12 网络出版日期:2022-10-31
  • 通讯作者: *周广胜, E-mail: zhougs@cma.gov.cn
  • 作者简介:E-mail: leh4179@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研究计划项目(2018YFA0606103);国家自然科学基金重点项目(42130514);国家自然科学基金重点项目(4213000565);中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项(2020Z004)

Response of reproductive growth period length to climate warming and technological progress in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 1981-2010 in single-cropping rice

LIU Er-Hua1,2,3(), ZHOU Guang-Sheng1,2,3,4,*(), WU Bing-Yi2, SONG Yan-Ling1,3, HE Qi-Jin4, LYU Xiao-Min1,3, ZHOU Meng-Zi1,3   

  1. 1State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
    2Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200439, China
    3Joint Eco-Meteorological Laboratory of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences and Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, Henan, China
    4College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
  • Received:2022-04-30 Accepted:2022-10-10 Published:2023-05-12 Published online:2022-10-31
  • Contact: *E-mail: zhougs@cma.gov.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0606103);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42130514);National Natural Science Foundation of China(4213000565);Basic Research Fund of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2020Z004)

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摘要：

作物生殖生长期长度与作物产量和品质密切相关。为深入探究作物生殖生长期长度(reproductive growth period lengths, RGLs)对气候变化和技术进步的响应, 基于1981—2010年长江中下游地区单季稻生殖生长期和气象数据, 量化不同RGLs (孕穗期—抽穗期(booting to heading, BDHD)、抽穗期—乳熟期(heading to milking, HDMS)、乳熟期—成熟期(milking to maturity, MSMD)和孕穗期—成熟期(booting to maturity, BDMD))对平均温度(mean temperature, TEM)、累积降水量(cumulative precipitation, PRE)和累积日照时数(cumulative sunshine duration, SSD)的敏感性, 并分离气候变化和技术进步对不同RGLs的影响。结果表明, 1981—2010年长江中下游地区单季稻BDMD呈延长趋势(0.24 d a-1), 其中, HDMS延长趋势最明显(0.16 d a-1)。气候因子中高温和寡照不利于单季稻不同RGLs延长, 其中, TEM对BDHD、HDMS和MSMD变化趋势的平均相对贡献分别为-50.0%、-50.7%和-21.9%, SSD对BDHD、HDMS和MSMD变化趋势的平均相对贡献分别为-47.2%、-48.7%和-67.6%。技术进步弥补了气候变化对不同RGLs变化趋势的不利影响。研究表明, 技术进步可能是当前单季稻稳产高产和趋利避害的主要手段, 未来可以采用较长生殖生长期和耐热性品种来适应持续的气候变化。

关键词: 单季稻, 气候变化, 生殖生长期, 技术进步

Abstract:

Crop growth period length is closely linked to climate change and technological progress. Even though the extensive researches conducting on crop growth period length variation and its response to climate change, particularly temperature change, the response of reproductive growth periods lengths (RGLs) to climate change and technological progress remains unclear. Based on the reproductive growth periods and meteorological data of single-cropping rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) during 1981?2010, the trends of the RGLs (including booting to heading (BDHD), heading to milking (HDMS), milking to maturity (MSMD), and booting to maturity (BDMD)) and climatic variations were analyzed. In addition, to explore the confounding effects of climate change and technological progress on the RGLs, the sensitivities of the RGLs to mean temperature (TEM), cumulative precipitation (PRE), and cumulative sunshine duration (SSD) were measured. The results showed that the BDMD had an extension trend (0.24 d a-1), among which the extension trend in the HDMS (0.16 d a-1) was the most obvious in RGLs, while the extension trends of BDHD (0.03 d a-1) and MSMD (0.05 d a-1) were not significant. High temperature and low sunshine duration were unfavorable to the extension of the RGLs. The mean relative contributions of TEM to the BDHD, HDMS, and MSMD were -50.0%, -50.7%, and -21.9%, which were -47.2%, -48.7%, and -67.6% in terms of SSD, respectively. Technological progress compensated for the adverse impacts of climate change on the trends of different RGLs. These results suggested that cultivar selection and agronomic management were the effective adaptation strategies benefiting for the stable and high yield of single-cropping rice. Single-cropping rice cultivar with longer RGLs and heat-tolerant may be suitable to cope with the continuous climate change in the future.

Key words: single-cropping rice, climate change, reproductive growth period lengths, technological progress

图1

10个气象站点地理位置 JXH、JZJ、HGS、HXY、HFX、HZX、SDZ、SGP、CFD和CYY分别表示兴化站、镇江站、固始站、信阳站、房县站钟祥站、大竹站、高坪站、丰都站和酉阳站。矢量地图数据来源: 全国地理信息资源目录服务系统(https://www.webmap.cn/)。"

图2

1981-2010年长江中下游地区单季稻生殖生长期和生殖生长阶段长度变化趋势 a、b、c、d、e、f、g、h、i和j分别表示分蘖期、孕穗期、抽穗期、乳熟期、成熟期、分蘖期-孕穗期、孕穗期-抽穗期、抽穗期-乳熟期、乳熟期-成熟期和孕穗期-成熟期。各指标变化趋势由1981-2010年观测的各生殖生长期时间序列依据公式(1)计算得到。*表示在0.05概率水平差异显著, no表示统计不显著。矢量地图数据来源: 全国地理信息资源目录服务系统(https://www.webmap.cn/)。"

图3

不同生殖生长期气候因子变化特征 a、b和c分别表示不同生殖生长期的平均温度、累积降水量和累计日照时数; d、e和f分别表示平均温度、累积降水量和累积日照时数的变化趋势。TEM、PRE和SSD分别表示平均温度、累积降水量和累积日照时数。TDBD、BDHD、HDMS、MSMD和BDMD分别表示分蘖期-孕穗期、孕穗期-抽穗期、抽穗期-乳熟期、乳熟期-成熟期和孕穗期-成熟期。各指标变化趋势由1981-2010年观测的气象数据时间序列依据公式(1)计算得到。"

表1

面板模型中不同生殖生长期对平均温度、累计降水量和累计日照时数的相关系数"

生殖生长阶段
Reproductive growth periods lengths (RGLs)		 平均温度敏感性Mean temperature sensitivity (β1) 累积降水量敏感性Cumulative precipitation sensitivity (β2) 累积日照时数敏感性Cumulative sunshine duration sensitivity (β3) 决定系数
Determination
coefficient (R2)
分蘖期-孕穗期
Tillering−Booting (TDBD)		 -3.74** 0.010** 0.09** 0.65
孕穗期-抽穗期
Booting−Heading (BDHD)		 -0.77** 0.010** 0.07** 0.59
抽穗期-乳熟期
Heading−Milking (HDMS)		 -1.00** 0.008** 0.08** 0.50
乳熟期-成熟期
Milking−Maturity (MSMD)		 -1.17** 0.007* 0.07** 0.80
孕穗期-成熟期
Booting−Maturity (BDMD)		 -2.08** 0.008** 0.04** 0.72

表2

标准化面板模型中不同生殖生长期对平均温度、累计降水量和累计日照时数的相关系数"

生殖生长阶段
Reproductive growth periods lengths (RGLs)		 平均温度敏感性Mean temperature sensitivity (β1) 累积降水量敏感性Cumulative precipitation sensitivity (β2) 累积日照时数敏感性Cumulative sunshine duration sensitivity (β3)
分蘖期-孕穗期Tillering−Booting (TDBD) -0.40** 0.08* 0.74**
孕穗期-抽穗期Booting−Heading (BDHD) -0.47** 0.16** 0.65**
抽穗期-乳熟期Heading−Milking (HDMS) -0.43** 0.10* 0.65**
乳熟期-成熟期Milking−Maturity (MSMD) -0.52** 0.09* 0.55**
孕穗期-成熟期Booting−Maturity (BDMD) -0.54** 0.12** 0.32**

图4

气候变化和技术进步对单季稻不同生殖生长期变化趋势的影响 T_cli、T_tec、T_cli_tec分别表示气候因素、技术进步、气候因素和技术进步综合作用对不同生殖生长期长度的影响趋势。生殖生长期长度缩写同图3。"

图5

气候变化和技术进步对单季稻生殖生长期长度的平均贡献 a表示气候变化和技术进步对不同生殖生长期的平均贡献; b表示气候因子对不同生殖生长期的平均相对贡献。CRGL_cli和CRGL_tec分别表示气候因素和技术进步对不同生殖生长期长度的平均贡献; RCRGL_TEM、RCRGL_PRE和RCRGL_SSD分别表示平均温度、累积降水量和累积日照时数对不同生殖生长期长度的平均相对贡献。生殖生长期长度缩写同图3。"

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