湖北省一季稻发育期对气候变化的响应

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2025.42038

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了深入研究一季稻发育期及发育期长度(Growth periods lengths，GLs)对气候变化的响应，基于1991—2020年湖北省5个农业气象观测站发育期观测数据和逐日气象数据，分析了湖北省一季稻发育期及GLs的变化特征，量化了发育期及GLs变化对日平均气温、日平均地温、气温日较差、相对湿度、降水量、日照时数的敏感性。结果表明，1991—2020年湖北省一季稻发育期以推后趋势为主(平均2.97 d 10 a^?1)，即每10年平均推后2.97 d，其中成熟期推后趋势最明显(4.99 d 10 a^?1)。GLs以延长的趋势为主(3.22 d 10 a^?1)，其中分蘖—拔节延长趋势最明显(8.17 d 10 a^?1)。发育期及其长度的变化对日平均气温敏感性最高。其中日平均气温与移栽、返青、分蘖、拔节相关系数分别为?0.59、?0.45、?0.47和?0.49 (P < 0.05)。日平均气温对拔节—孕穗、孕穗—抽穗、抽穗—乳熟、生殖生长期的敏感系数别为7.79、7.62、5.69和9.17。研究表明，影响湖北省一季稻发育期的主导气候因子是气温、地温和气温日较差，而相对湿度、降水和日照时数作用较小。然而气候因子也只能解释发育期及其长度变异的48.22%，可以推测除了气候因子之外，一季稻发育期及其长度变化可能还受到品种更换、技术进步及栽培管理方式变化等因素的综合影响，未来的研究可以考虑量化这些因素的贡献率。

关键词: 湖北省, 一季稻, 发育期, 气候变化, 敏感性

Abstract:

To investigate the response of the phenological phases and growth period lengths (GLs) of single-cropping rice to climate change, we analyzed phenological data from five agricultural meteorological observation stations and daily meteorological records in Hubei Province from 1991 to 2020. Specifically, we examined variations in phenological phases and GLs and quantified their sensitivity to air temperature, ground temperature, daily temperature range, relative humidity, precipitation, and sunshine duration. The results showed that the phenological phases of single-cropping rice in Hubei Province exhibited a general delaying trend from 1991 to 2020, with an average delay of 2.97 days per decade. The most pronounced delay was observed in the maturity phase (4.99 days per decade). Similarly, the duration of phenological phases was primarily extended (3.22 days per decade), with the most significant elongation occurring in the tillering–jointing stage (8.17 days per decade). Among the climatic variables, daily average temperature had the strongest influence on the phenological phases and their durations. The correlation coefficients between daily average temperature and the transplanting, regreening, tillering, and jointing stages were ?0.59, ?0.45, ?0.47, and ?0.49, respectively (P < 0.05). Additionally, the sensitivity coefficients of daily average temperature for the jointing–booting, booting–heading, heading–milking, and milking–maturity stages, as well as the overall reproductive growth phase, were 7.79, 7.62, 5.69, and 9.17, respectively. Our findings indicate that air temperature, ground temperature, and daily temperature range are the dominant climatic factors affecting the phenological phases of single-cropping rice, while relative humidity, precipitation, and sunshine duration have relatively minor effects. However, climate factors alone explain only 48.22% of the variation in phenological phases and GLs. This suggests that, in addition to climatic influences, factors such as variety replacement, technological advancements, and changes in cultivation and management practices also significantly impact the growth period and GLs of single-cropping rice. Future research should aim to quantify the relative contributions of these factors.

Key words: Hubei province, single-cropping rice, phenological phase stages, climate change, sensitivity

王芬, 吴东丽, 张全军. 湖北省一季稻发育期对气候变化的响应[J]. 作物学报, 0, (): 0-.

WANG Fen, WU Dong-Li , ZHANG Quan-Jun. Response of phenological phase stages of single-cropping rice to climate change in Hubei province[J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 0, (): 0-.

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