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作物学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (10): 1554-1564.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2019.81094

• 耕作栽培·生理生化 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于农作制分区的1985—2015年中国小麦生产时空变化

白冰1,杨雨豪1,王小慧1,贾浩1,吴尧1,史磊刚2,尹小刚1,陈阜1,*()   

  1. 1中国农业大学农学院 / 农业农村部农作制度重点实验室, 北京 100193
    2北京农业信息技术研究中心, 北京 100097
  • 收稿日期:2018-12-29 接受日期:2019-05-12 出版日期:2019-10-12 网络出版日期:2019-09-10
  • 通讯作者: 陈阜
  • 基金资助:
    本研究由国家重点研发计划项目资助(2016YFD0300200)

Spatio-temporal changes of China’s wheat production based on division of farming system during 1985-2015

BAI Bing1,YANG Yu-Hao1,WANG Xiao-Hui1,JIA Hao1,WU Yao1,SHI Lei-Gang2,YIN Xiao-Gang1,CHEN Fu1,*()   

  1. 1College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University / Key Laboratory of Farming System, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100193, China
    2Beijing Research Center for Information Technology in Agriculture, Beijing 100097, China
  • Received:2018-12-29 Accepted:2019-05-12 Published:2019-10-12 Published online:2019-09-10
  • Contact: Fu CHEN
  • Supported by:
    This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFD0300200)

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摘要：

利用1985—2015年间7个节点年份的全国分县小麦种植面积、总产量和单产数据, 运用集中度指数、变化率等指标和重心迁移、单产面积贡献率分解方法, 基于农作制分区, 对过去30年我国小麦生产的时空变化进行分析。东北、西北干旱和华南农作区小麦种植面积明显减少, 而黄淮海平原、长江中下游沿海平原农作区北部迅速增加; 黄淮海平原农作区的海河低平原、黄淮平原和汾渭谷地亚区2015年集中度指数分别达到20.64%、25.77%和21.65%。各农作区的小麦平均单产持续提高, 黄淮海平原和西北干旱农作区提升幅度最大, 每年分别达到103.5 kg hm -2和92.9 kg hm -2。相较于1985年, 2015年黄淮海平原农作区小麦总产量增加4.8×10 7 t, 长江中下游沿海平原农作区增加8.0×10 6 t, 东北农作区减少2.6×10 6 t。在小麦总产增加区域, 黄淮海平原农作区以单产主导型及单产与面积共同作用型为主; 长江中下游沿海平原农作区以面积主导型及单产与面积共同作用型为主; 小麦总产减少地区主要因为种植面积减少。从总产量贡献率变化趋势看, 单产主导型地区减少, 面积主导型地区增加, 单产与面积共同作用型地区较稳定。中国小麦生产越来越向高产地区黄淮海平原农作区集中, 海河低平原、黄淮平原和汾渭谷地亚区为小麦生产集中区域; 小麦单产和种植面积增加共同增加了该区域小麦总产量增加, 而长江中下游沿海平原农作区和新疆地区的小麦总产增加主要靠种植面积扩大。

关键词: 小麦, 时空变化, 农作区, 集中度指数, 贡献率

Abstract:

Comparing spatio-temporal variation characteristics of China’s wheat production, yield, sown area and yield-area-contribution in different farming zones in the past 30 years could help improving wheat planting layout and adjusting planting structure. Concentration index, rate of change, moving of gravity and resolution of yield-area-contribution were used to analyze spatio-temporal changes of China’s wheat production and yield-area-contribution based on county wheat production statistics including sown area, production and yield from 1985 to 2015. The wheat sown area decreased obviously in Northeast farming region, Northwest farming region and South farming region and increased rapidly in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region and Yangtze Plain farming region. In Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, the concentration indexes of Haihe Plain farming region, Huang-huai Plain farming region and Fenwei Basin farming region reached to 20.64%, 25.77%, and 21.65% respectively in 2015. Wheat production increased significantly by more than 48 milliontons in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, and nearly 8 million tons Yangtze Plain farming region but decreased by more than 2.6 million tons in Northeast farming region. In Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, wheat production was concentrated in Haihe Plain farming region, Huang-huai Plain farming region and Yuxi Hill farming region. The average wheat yield continuously improved during the study period, Huang-Huai-Hai farming region and Northwest farming region had the yield increase up to 103.5 kg hm -2 and 92.9 kg hm -2 each year. Wheat yield in Yuxi Hill farming region, Fenwei Basin farming region and Haihe Plain farming region was relatively high in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region. The yield-reduced area was mainly caused by the decreasing of sown area, while the yield-area-contribution rate was different in yield-increased area. Yield-dominant counties were reduced, area-dominant counties were increased and yield-area-dominant counties were relatively steady. In production increased area, yield-dominant and yield-area-dominant counties were the main types in Huang-Huai-Hai Farming region, area-dominant and yield-area-dominant counties were the main types in Yangtze Plain farming region. Chinese wheat production was increasingly concentrated in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region which has high and rapid increase of wheat yield over the past three decades. Haihe Plain farming region, Huang-huai Plain farming region and Fenwei Basin farming region were the most concentrated areas in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region for wheat production during this period. Wheat yield and sown area jointly promoted the increase of wheat production in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, wheat sown area was the crucial factor to increase wheat production in Yangtze Plain farming region, especially in the north of Jiangsu, Anhui province and greater part of Xinjiang.

Key words: wheat, spatio-temporal changes, farming region, concentration index, contribution

图1

中国农作制综合分区图 1: 东北平原山区半湿润温凉雨养一熟农林区; 2: 黄淮海平原半湿润暖温灌溉集约农作区; 3: 长江中下游及沿海平原丘陵湿润中热水田集约农作区; 4: 江南丘陵山地湿润中热水田二三熟农林区; 5: 华南湿热双季稻与热作农林区; 6: 北部低中高原半干旱凉温旱作兼放牧区; 7: 西北干旱中温绿洲灌溉农作区兼荒漠放牧区; 8: 四川盆地湿润中热稻麦二熟集约农区; 9: 西南中高原山地湿热水旱二熟粗放农林区; 10: 青藏高原干旱半干旱高寒牧区兼河谷一熟农林区。"

图2

我国小麦1985-2000(a)、2000-2015(b)和1985-2015(c)产量变化 NP: 无种植; HD : 重度减少区; MD: 中度减少区; LD: 轻度减少区; LR: 轻度增加区; MR: 中度增加区; HR: 重度增加区。"

表1

1985-2015年中国各农作区小麦总产集中度变化值"

农作制一级区
Main plot of farming systems		 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
东北农作区 Northeast farming region 4.51 3.31 2.68 0.92 0.75 1.05 0.87
黄淮海平原农作区Huang-Huai-Hai farming region 60.88 59.36 63.52 67.56 71.45 70.86 71.60
长江中下游农作区Yangtze Plain farming region 11.92 12.10 10.59 9.67 9.32 12.30 12.90
江南丘陵农作区Jiangnan farming region 0.61 0.71 0.43 0.35 0.15 0.07 0.05
华南农作区South farming region 0.17 0.34 0.14 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.01
北部中低高原农作区North farming region 6.07 7.07 4.96 4.32 4.03 3.18 3.16
西北农牧区Northwest farming region 5.63 5.79 5.59 5.70 5.24 6.01 6.10
四川盆地农作区Sichuan Basin farming region 6.96 7.00 7.57 6.49 5.48 4.21 3.00
西南中高原农作区Southwest farming region 2.85 3.88 4.07 4.37 3.10 1.96 1.92
青藏高原农作区Tibet Plateau farming region 0.40 0.44 0.45 0.54 0.44 0.33 0.40

表2

1985-2015年黄淮海农作区小麦总产集中度变化值"

黄淮海农作区
Huang-Huai-Hai farming region		 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
环渤海亚区Bohai-Sea farming region 13.69 11.96 12.12 12.51 10.26 8.47 8.42
燕山太行山山前平原亚区Shanqian farming region 11.20 11.88 11.92 11.26 9.72 8.83 9.08
海河低平原亚区Haihe Plain farming region 13.78 18.19 19.30 17.30 19.58 21.23 20.81
鲁西平原亚区Luxi Plain farming region 10.68 10.84 11.00 9.60 8.33 9.02 8.72
黄淮平原亚区Huang-Huai Plain farming region 38.41 24.52 25.20 24.69 25.04 25.74 26.33
豫西丘陵亚区Yuxi Hill farming region 2.91 5.15 4.38 5.59 5.65 5.31 5.36
汾渭谷地亚区Fenwei Basin farming region 9.33 17.46 16.09 19.04 21.43 21.40 21.28

图3

我国小麦1985-2000(a)、2000-2015(b)和1985-2015(c)种植面积变化 图例缩写同图2。"

表3

1985-2015年中国各农作区小麦面积集中度变化值"

农作制一级区
Main plot of farming systems		 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
东北农作区 Northeast farming region 7.37 4.19 3.40 2.05 1.07 1.47 0.91
黄淮海平原农作区Huang-Huai-Hai farming region 51.64 52.29 53.71 57.92 63.02 62.47 62.84
长江中下游农作区Yangtze Plain farming region 11.96 12.38 11.19 10.60 10.18 13.22 14.43
江南丘陵农作区Jiangnan farming region 0.89 1.14 0.81 0.61 0.33 0.16 0.11
华南农作区South farming region 0.29 0.48 0.21 0.13 0.09 0.06 0.04
北部中低高原农作区North farming region 10.54 10.70 10.41 8.69 7.59 6.52 6.12
西北农作区Northwest farming region 5.41 5.33 4.87 4.66 4.61 5.70 6.08
四川盆地农作区Sichuan Basin farming region 6.36 6.79 7.75 6.95 6.39 5.36 4.55
西南中高原农作区Southwest farming region 5.08 6.26 7.15 7.85 6.28 4.66 4.42
青藏高原农作区Tibet Plateau farming region 0.45 0.45 0.50 0.54 0.45 0.39 0.50

表4

1985-2015年黄淮海农作区小麦种植面积集中度变化值"

黄淮海农作区
Huang-Huai-Hai farming region		 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
环渤海亚区Bohai-Sea farming region 13.20 10.24 10.38 10.61 9.47 8.76 8.27
燕山太行山山前平原亚区Shanqian farming region 10.79 12.25 12.22 12.49 11.48 10.74 10.18
黄淮海农作区
Huang-Huai-Hai farming region		 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
海河低平原亚区Haihe Plain farming region 14.22 19.60 19.10 18.51 19.63 20.89 20.64
鲁西平原亚区Luxi Plain farming region 10.07 9.86 9.14 8.65 7.51 8.53 8.32
黄淮平原亚区Huang-Huai Plain farming region 37.77 23.84 24.45 24.17 24.93 25.28 25.77
豫西丘陵亚区Yuxi Hill farming region 3.65 5.04 5.18 5.27 5.36 5.09 5.16
汾渭谷地亚区Fenwei Basin farming region 10.29 19.17 19.52 20.29 21.61 20.71 21.65

图4

我国小麦1985-2000(a)、2000-2015(b)和1985-2015(c)单产变化 图例缩写同图2。"

表5

1985-2015年各农作区小麦平均单产变化特征"

农作制一级区
Main plot of farming systems		 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 平均单产
Average yield		 增加速率
Rate of increase		 P R2
东北农作区
Northeast farming region		 1798 2555 2971 1802 3242 3797 5466 2495 98.3 0.021 0.960
黄淮海平原农作区
Huang-Huai-Hai farming region		 3461 3675 4459 4658 5249 6008 6472 4859 103.5 0.000 0.983
长江中下游农作区
Yangtze Plain farming region		 2924 3163 3566 3640 4240 4930 5078 3923 76.2 0.000 0.961
江南丘陵农作区
Jiangnan farming region		 2014 2014 1972 2260 2162 2501 2733 2084 23.7 0.006 0.801
华南农作区
South farming region		 1686 2330 2619 2473 2132 2172 1767 2208 -4.0 0.789 0.016
北部中低高原农作区
North farming region		 1691 2139 1795 1987 2457 2582 2933 2123 37.7 0.005 0.816
农作制一级区
Main plot of farming systems		 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 平均单产
Average yield		 增加速率
Rate of increase		 P R2
西北农作区
Northwest farming region		 3055 3519 4328 4880 5263 5588 5699 4556 92.9 0.000 0.954
四川盆地农作区
Sichuan Basin farming region		 3215 3336 3680 3733 3965 4166 3738 3652 25.1 0.024 0.671
西南中高原农作区
Southwest farming region		 1649 2007 2147 2226 2288 2224 2463 2129 21.6 0.005 0.814
青藏高原农作区
Tibet Plateau farming region		 2576 3193 3406 3965 4521 4486 4513 3746 67.9 0.001 0.911

表6

黄淮海农作小麦平均单产变化特征"

黄淮海农作区
Huang-Huai-Hai farming region		 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 平均单产
Average yield		 增加速率
Rate of increase		 P R2
环渤海亚区
Bohai-Sea farming region		 3589 4290 5207 5492 5683 5812 6585 5117 89.3 0.000 0.927
燕山太行山山前平原亚区
Shanqian farming region		 3591 3566 4347 4200 4444 4936 5773 4381 67.0 0.002 0.881
海河低平原亚区
Haihe Plain farming region		 3355 3410 4504 4355 5235 6107 6527 4879 111.7 0.000 0.951
鲁西平原亚区
Luxi Plain farming region		 3669 4041 5365 5166 5825 6349 6785 5236 103.0 0.000 0.947
黄淮平原亚区
Huang-Huai Plain farming region		 3519 3780 4595 4758 5272 6118 6610 4877 104.5 0.000 0.979
豫西丘陵亚区
Yuxi Hill farming region		 2758 3756 3767 4942 5526 6279 6712 4917 133.3 0.000 0.979
汾渭谷地亚区
Fenwei Basin farming region		 3137 3346 3675 4370 5205 6207 6362 4774 120.9 0.000 0.956

图5

全国(a)、长江中下游(b)、黄淮海(c)和西北农作区(d)小麦生产面积和产量重心变化"

图6

1985-2000年(a)、2000-2015年(b)和1985-2015年(c)不同产量贡献率主导类型分布"

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