基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对江西双季稻生长期和产量的影响

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2024.32057

Abstract

Abstract:

Jiangxi province is a key region for double cropping rice cultivation in China. Climate change has significantly impacted double cropping rice production in this area. This study validates the DSSAT model using daily meteorological data and crop data for double cropping rice in Jiangxi Province from 1981 to 2022. The validated DSSAT model is then used to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal variation trends of the growth season and yield of double cropping rice in Jiangxi province. Additionally, the t-test method is employed to identify differences in the effects of climate change on early rice and late rice in the province. The results are as follows: (1) The normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) between simulated and observed values for the sowing-to-flowering duration, sowing-to-maturity duration, and yield of early rice (late rice) in Jiangxi province are 1.87% (1.86%), 2.05% (2.36%), and 6.05% (7.30%), respectively. The D-index for these parameters are 0.97 (0.98), 0.96 (0.96), and 0.95 (0.94), respectively. (2) With fixed sowing dates and varieties, the growth seasons for early rice and late rice in Jiangxi province significantly shortened from 1981 to 2022, with an average decrease of 2.22 and 1.61 days per decade, respectively. The potential yields of early rice and late rice also significantly decreased over the same period, with an average reduction of 181.30 kg hm^-2 and 276.16 kg hm^-2 per decade, respectively. (3) The t-test results indicate that the climate trend for the growth season of early rice in Jiangxi Province is significantly lower than that of late rice. Conversely, the climate trend for the potential yield of early rice is significantly higher than that of late rice. The DSSAT model effectively simulates the growth and yield of double cropping rice in Jiangxi province. The findings highlight that climate change has more pronounced effects on the growth season of early rice and the potential yield of late rice in Jiangxi province. This study provides a scientific basis for crop model research, yield prediction, and climate change assessment for double cropping rice in Jiangxi province.

Key words: DSSAT, early rice, late rice, growth season, rice potential yield

ZHANG Fang-Liang, LIU Wen-Ying, TIAN Jun, WANG Jian-Jun, LIU Dan, YANG Jun, LI Ying-Chun, ZHANG Yi-Zhi. Simulating effects of climate change on growth season and yield of double cropping rice in Jiangxi province based on DSSAT model[J].Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2024, 50(10): 2614-2624.

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参数Parameter	描述Description	范围Range	单位Unit
P1	完成基本营养期需要的≥9℃积温 Accumulated temperature ≥9℃ required for the basic vegetative period	150-800	℃ d
P2O	发育最快时的临界光周期 Critical photoperiod at which the development occurs at a maximum rate	11-13	h
P2R	日长每大于临界光周期1 h导致穗粒发育延迟的程度 Panicle initiation development is delayed for each hour increase in photoperiod above P2O	5-300	℃ d
P5	从籽粒开始灌浆到成熟时需要的≥9℃积温 Accumulated temperature ≥9℃ required from beginning of grain filling to maturity	150-850	℃ d
PHINT	相邻叶尖出现间隔所需的积温 Accumulated temperature required for each leaf-tip to appear	55-90	℃ d
G1	潜在的小穗系数 Potential spikelet number coefficient	50-75	—
G2	潜在的单粒重 Potential single grain weight	0.015-0.030	g
G3	相对分蘖系数 Relative tillering coefficient	0.7-1.3	—
THOT	小穗不育的临界高温 Critical high temperature of spikelet sterility	25-34	℃
TCLDP	穗粒延迟发育的临界低温 Critical low temperature for delayed panicle initiation development	12-18	℃
TCLDF	小穗不育的临界低温 Critical low temperature of spikelet sterility	10-20	℃

站点 Station	早稻 Early rice		晚稻 Late rice
站点 Station	品种 Variety	年份 Year	品种 Variety	年份 Year
广丰Guangfeng	浙稻Zhedao	2002-2004, 2010	江优10号Jiangyou 10	1991-1992
湖口Hukou	早稻7307 Zaodao 7307	1991-1995	籼优64 Xianyou 64	1991, 1993-1996, 1998
吉安Ji’an	—	—	金优463 Jinyou 463	2010-2012
莲花Lianhua	浙福504 Zhefu 504	1998-1999	丰优丝苗Fengyousimiao	2007-2010
南昌Nanchang	禾盛10号Hesheng 10	2006, 2008-2009	926	2007, 2009, 2011-2012
宁都Ningdu	金优402 Jinyou 402	2000, 2005, 2008	—	—
南丰Nanfeng	—	—	4015	1992-2004
南康Nankang	—	—	754	1983-1984, 1986-1987
瑞昌Ruichang	早稻7307 Zaodao 7307	1986-1990, 1994-1997	威优63 Weiyou 63	1990-1991
泰和Taihe	果稻705 Guodao 705	1983, 1985	汕259 Shan 259	1984-1985
婺源Wuyuan	金优213 Jinyou 213	2008-2009	754	1984-1985
宜丰Yifeng	—	—	岳优9113 Yueyou 9113	2009-2013
余干Yugan	—	—	汕优64 Shanyou 64	1993-2001
樟树Zhangshu	—	—	优I402 You I402	2006-2008

站点Station	P1	P2R	P5	P2O	G1	G2	G3	THOT
广丰Guangfeng	360	15	290	11.6	75	0.03	0.8	28
湖口Hukou	270	65	185	13.0	62	0.03	0.8	28
莲花Lianhua	150	75	270	11.3	75	0.03	0.9	28
南昌Nanchang	150	75	245	11.1	75	0.03	0.8	28
宁都Ningdu	150	95	355	11.3	72	0.03	0.7	30
瑞昌Ruichang	350	5	315	12.8	73	0.03	1.0	28
泰和Taihe	180	215	280	13.0	74	0.03	0.7	28
婺源Wuyuan	150	85	335	11.1	51	0.03	0.7	32

站点Station	P1	P2R	P5	P2O	G1	G2	G3	THOT
广丰Guangfeng	710	15	345	12.5	73	0.03	0.7	28
湖口Hukou	150	255	220	12.6	75	0.03	1.0	28
吉安Ji’an	150	95	520	11.2	71	0.03	0.7	28
莲花Lianhua	150	165	340	11.0	75	0.03	1.0	28
南昌Nanchang	420	75	360	11.0	75	0.03	0.7	28
南丰Nanfeng	470	295	340	13.0	68	0.03	1.0	28
南康Nankang	150	295	340	12.1	50	0.03	1.3	28
瑞昌Ruichang	150	225	235	11.4	75	0.03	0.9	28
泰和Taihe	150	205	345	11.1	75	0.03	0.7	28
婺源Wuyuan	160	265	260	11.8	51	0.03	1.3	28
宜丰Yifeng	250	298	335	13.0	74	0.03	0.7	28
余干Yugan	230	285	455	12.9	75	0.03	1.3	28
樟树Zhangshu	160	195	470	11.9	75	0.03	0.7	28

Simulating effects of climate change on growth season and yield of double cropping rice in Jiangxi province based on DSSAT model

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