AquaCrop模型在东北黑土区作物产量预测中的应用研究

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2021.03016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

东北黑土区是我国玉米和大豆生产基地, 为了实现利用AquaCrop模型优化管理和预测产量, 本文基于作物小区田间试验和大田观测数据, 采用OAT (one factor at a time)法分析了该模型参数的敏感性, 率定了敏感性高的参数, 并对率定后的模型进行了验证。结果表明: 玉米和大豆产量均对影响经济产量的收获指数十分敏感, 二者虽然对冠层和根系生长参数都敏感, 但有所差异: 玉米对冠层衰减系数(canopy decline coefficient, CDC)更为敏感, 而大豆则对限制冠层伸展的水分胁迫系数曲线的形状因子(shape factor for water stress coefficient for canopy expansion, Pexshp)更为敏感; 玉米因根系深对最大有效根深(maximum effective rooting depth, Z_x)更敏感, 大豆因根系浅对根区根系伸展曲线的形状因子(shape factor describing root zone expansion, Rexshp)更敏感。由于玉米需水量大, 对冠层形成和枯萎前的作物系数(crop coefficient before canopy formation and senescence, Kc_Tr,x)和归一化水分生产力(normalized water productivity, WP^*)很敏感, 大豆则是一般敏感。率定后模型模拟玉米产量与实测产量的回归系数由0.34提升至0.89, 模拟大豆产量与实测产量的回归系数由0.80提升至0.88。进一步用大田实测产量的验证结果表明: 预测的玉米与大豆产量与实测产量间回归方程的决定系数(coefficient of determination, R²)分别为0.775和0.779, 均方根误差(root mean square error, RMSE)分别为1.076 t hm^-2和0.299 t hm^-2, 标准均方根误差(normalized root mean square error, NRMSE)分别为0.097和0.178, 模拟效率(model efficiency, ME)分别为0.747和0.730, 率定后的AquaCrop模型能较精准地模拟东北黑土区玉米和大豆产量, 可用于产量预测或优化管理。

关键词: AquaCrop模型, 东北黑土区, 敏感性分析, 参数率定, 玉米, 大豆

Abstract:

Northeast black soil area is the production area of maize and soybean in China. In order to optimize the agricultural management and forecast crop yield with AquaCrop model, we use OAT (one factor at a time) method to analyze the sensitivity of the model parameters based on the experiment and field observation data, and to validate the model after calibrated the high sensitivity parameters. The results of sensitivity analysis showed that the yields of maize and soybean were both extremely sensitive to the reference harvest index (HI₀) and the parameters of canopy growth and root growth. The difference was that maize was more sensitive to the canopy decline coefficient (CDC), while soybean was more sensitive to the shape factor for water stress coefficient for canopy expansion (Pexshp). Maize was more sensitive to the maximum effective rooting depth (Z_x) because of its deep root, while soybean was more sensitive to the shape factor describing root zone expansion (Rexshp) because of its short roots. Maize was extremely sensitive to the crop coefficient before canopy formation and senescence (Kc_Tr,x) and the normalized water productivity (WP^*) due to the large water demand, while soybean was only generally sensitive. After calibrated the high sensitivity parameters with experiment data, the regression coefficient of simulated yield and measured yield of maize increased from 0.34 to 0.89, and the regression coefficient of simulated yield and measured yield of soybean increased from 0.80 to 0.88. Furthermore, the validation results of field observation data indicated that the determination coefficients (R²), the root mean square error (RMSE), the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and the model efficiency (ME) of the AquaCrop model of maize and soybean were 0.775 and 0.779, 1.076 t hm^-2 and 0.299 t hm^-2, 0.097 and 0.178, 0.747 and 0.730, respectively. The calibrated AquaCrop model can accurately simulate the yield of corn and soybean in the black soil area of Northeast China, and is useful for yield prediction and optimal management.

Key words: AquaCrop model, Northeastern China, sensitivity analysis, parameter calibration, maize, soybean

崔颖, 蔺宏宏, 谢云, 刘素红. AquaCrop模型在东北黑土区作物产量预测中的应用研究[J]. 作物学报, 2021, 47(1): 159-168.

CUI Ying, LIN Hong-Hong, XIE Yun, LIU Su-Hong. Application study of crop yield prediction based on AquaCrop model in black soil region of Northeast China[J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2021, 47(1): 159-168.

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链接本文: https://zwxb.chinacrops.org/CN/10.3724/SP.J.1006.2021.03016

https://zwxb.chinacrops.org/CN/Y2021/V47/I1/159

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参考文献 35

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点位Location	容重 Bulk density (g cm^-3)	田间持水量 Field capacity (%)	凋萎湿度 Wilting point (%)	有机质含量 Organic content (%)	氢离子浓度指数 Hydrogen ion concentration (pH)	碱解氮含量 Available nitrogen content (mg kg^-1)	速效磷含量 Available phosphorus content (mg kg^-1)	速效钾含量 Available potassium content (mg kg^-1)
1	1.48	30.45	15.40	3.65	6.21	142.42	6.69	44.23
2	1.43	26.85	14.48	2.46	5.86	103.13	4.19	36.19
3	1.43	28.24	16.35	2.01	5.77	69.59	3.02	46.24
4	1.54	29.39	16.12	1.38	5.91	71.98	2.24	44.23
5	1.25	45.19	18.16	2.73	5.79	117.88	2.64	36.37
6	1.36	33.86	16.94	2.15	5.79	115.15	2.82	39.36
7	1.24	38.70	17.61	2.63	5.79	88.38	3.35	44.36
8	1.37	33.53	15.78	2.53	5.67	65.65	1.47	35.37
9	1.43	28.41	11.48	0.92	5.90	38.66	2.84	25.38
10	1.45	28.10	11.11	1.40	5.68	53.83	4.67	47.35
11	1.63	18.36	10.00	0.68	6.10	30.03	1.56	14.08
12	1.51	24.75	11.89	2.36	6.19	74.65	7.60	55.35
13	1.64	17.52	8.15	1.25	6.13	46.99	12.27	34.18
14	1.37	27.65	10.94	2.39	6.38	75.56	24.97	441.73

符号 Symbol	含义 Description
Pexp-up	限制冠层伸展的土壤水分消耗上限阈值。Soil water depletion threshold for canopy expansion-upper threshold.
Pexp-lw	限制冠层伸展的土壤水分消耗下限阈值。Soil water depletion threshold for canopy expansion-lower threshold.
Pexshp	限制冠层伸展的水分胁迫系数曲线的形状因子。Shape factor for Water stress coefficient for canopy expansion.
DeKc_Tr,x	因衰老、氮元素亏缺导致的作物系数下降速率。Decline of crop coefficient as a result of ageing, nitrogen deficiency.
Kc_Tr,x	冠层形成和枯萎前的作物系数。Crop coefficient before canopy formation and senescence.
Rexshp	根区根系伸展曲线的形状因子。Shape factor describing root zone expansion.
Z_min	根系初始深度。Minimum effective rooting depth.
Z_x	最大有效根深。Maximum effective rooting depth.
WP^*yf	产量形成期的归一化水分生产力。 Water productivity normalized for ET₀ and CO₂ during yield formation (as percent WP^* before yield formation).
WP^*	归一化水分生产力。Water productivity normalized for ET₀ and CO₂.
CC_x	最大冠层覆盖度。Maximum canopy cover.
CGC	冠层生长系数。Canopy growth coefficient.
CDC	冠层衰减系数。Canopy decline coefficient.
HI₀	参考收获指数。Reference harvest index.

模型参数 Parameter	玉米Maize		大豆Soybean
模型参数 Parameter	相对敏感度RS	敏感程度Sensitivity	相对敏感度RS	敏感程度Sensitivity
Pexp-up	0.0023	低敏感Low sensitive	0.0223	低敏感Low sensitive
DeKc_Tr,x	0.0138	低敏感Low sensitive	0.0871	低敏感Low sensitive
Pexp-lw	0.0369	低敏感Low sensitive	0.1480	一般敏感General sensitive
Pexshp	0.0192	低敏感Low sensitive	0.9561	极敏感Extremely sensitive
Rexshp	0.0374	低敏感Low sensitive	1.9893	极敏感Extremely sensitive
Z_min	0.2321	一般敏感General sensitive	0.0871	低敏感Low sensitive
WP^*yf	0.4407	一般敏感General sensitive	0.3450	一般敏感General sensitive
CC_x	0.5556	一般敏感General sensitive	0.4995	一般敏感General sensitive
CGC	0.2011	一般敏感General sensitive	0.3961	一般敏感General sensitive
CDC	0.7901	极敏感Extremely sensitive	0.3745	一般敏感General sensitive
HI₀	1.0185	极敏感Extremely sensitive	0.3897	一般敏感General sensitive
Z_x	0.8585	极敏感Extremely sensitive	0.1197	一般敏感General sensitive
WP^*	0.8509	极敏感Extremely sensitive	0.4295	一般敏感General sensitive
Kc_Tr,x	0.7657	极敏感Extremely sensitive	0.6034	极敏感Extremely sensitive

符号Notation	含义 Description	单位 Unit	默认值 Default value	率定值Calibration value
符号Notation	含义 Description	单位 Unit	默认值 Default value	玉米Maize	大豆Soybean
Pexp-up	限制冠层伸展的土壤水分消耗上限阈值。 Soil water depletion threshold for canopy expansion-upper threshold.	% of TAW	0.60	0.60	0.35
Pexp-lw	限制冠层伸展的土壤水分消耗下限阈值。 Soil water depletion threshold for canopy expansion-lower threshold.	% of TAW	0.25	0.14	0
Pexshp	限制冠层伸展的水分胁迫系数曲线的形状因子。 Shape factor for water stress coefficient for canopy expansion.	—	3.0	2.9	4.0
DeKc_Tr,x	因衰老、氮元素亏缺导致的作物系数下降速率。 Decline of crop coefficient as a result of ageing, nitrogen deficiency.	% d^-1	0.150	0.300	0.300
Kc_Tr,x	冠层形成和枯萎前的作物系数。 Crop coefficient before canopy formation and senescence.	—	1.10	1.05	1.10
Rexshp	根区根系伸展曲线的形状因子。 Shape factor describing root zone expansion.	—	1.5	1.3	1.5
Z_x	最大有效根深。 Maximum effective rooting depth.	m	1.0	2.3	1.6
WP^*yf	产量形成期的归一化水分生产力。 Water productivity normalized for ET₀ and CO₂ during yield formation.	%	100	100	51
WP^*	归一化水分生产力。 Water productivity normalized for ET₀ and CO₂.	g m^-2	17.0	33.7	15.0
CC_x	最大冠层覆盖度。Maximum canopy cover.	%	80	96	98
CGC	冠层生长系数。Canopy growth coefficient.	% d^-1	15.0	15.8	10.0
CDC	冠层衰减系数。Canopy decline coefficient.	% d^-1	12.8	11.7	21.3
HI₀	参考收获指数。Reference harvest index.	%	50	58	43