Welcome to Acta Agronomica Sinica，

Acta Agronomica Sinica ›› 2022, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (6): 1537-1545.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2022.03061

• RESEARCH NOTES • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Effect of agricultural meteorological disasters on the production corn in the Northeast China

LI Yi-Jun(), LYU Hou-Quan*()   

  1. National Meteorological Centre of China, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2020-10-19 Accepted:2021-10-20 Online:2022-06-12 Published:2021-11-18
  • Contact: LYU Hou-Quan E-mail:duoshaoduo151@163.com;daoshaodao@163.com
  • Supported by:
    National Key Basic Research Program(2013CB430205);National Key Research and Development Program of China(2019YFD1002201)

RichHTML399

18

PDF

578

Abstract:

Agricultural meteorological disasters are the main natural disasters that threaten grain output. In recent years, with climate change, agricultural meteorological disasters are more and more frequent, and their impact on northeast China is also increasing. In this paper, to make better use of advantages and avoid disadvantages in actual production to ensure food production safety, spring corn in three provinces of northeast China was taken as the research object to discuss the impact of major agricultural meteorological disasters in this region on spring corn yield and its degree. The results showed that agricultural meteorological disasters could explain about 50% of the fluctuation of spring corn yield in Northeast China, and the main agricultural meteorological disasters that affected spring corn production had changed from cold damage in the traditional sense to drought. Under the background of climate warming, the main factor affecting spring corn production was changed from thermal condition to water condition, and drought had become the primary disaster threatening spring corn production. The agricultural meteorological disasters that affected the spring corn yield in Liaoning province were drought, flood, and wind in order of the degree of influence. The agricultural meteorological disaster that affected spring corn yield in Jilin province was only drought. The agricultural meteorological disasters affecting the yield of spring corn in Heilongjiang province were ranked as flood, drought, and cold damage according to the degree of impact. In conclusion, due to geographical differences, the main agro-meteorological disasters affecting the corn production in the three provinces of Northeast China were also different, and their complexity was not the same, which cannot be generalized in the specific study.

Key words: agricultural meteorological disasters, drought, flood, cold damage, corn yield

Fig. 1

Average air temperatures (a) and its mutation test (b) in the research region from 1971 to 2018"

Fig. 2

Precipitation in the research site from 1971 to 2018"

Fig. 3

Area of meteorological disaster in the research site from 1971 to 2018"

Fig. 4

Different of meteorological disasters in the research site from 1971 to 2018"

Table S1

Relationship between agricultural meteorological disasters and meteorological elements on study region"

省份
Province		 气象要素
Meteorological elements		 实际产量
Actual output		 气象产量滑5a relative weather yield 总成灾率
Total hazard rate		 旱灾成灾率
Drought disaster rate		 水灾成灾率
Flood disaster rate		 风灾成灾率
Wind disaster rate		 冷害成灾率
Chilling damage disaster rate		 其他成灾率
Other disaster rate
黑龙江
Heilongjiang		 ≥10℃积温 ≥10℃ accumulated temperature 0.593** 0.593** 0.593** 0.180 0.015 -0.190 -0.238 0.146
5-6月气温 Temperature of May and June 0 0 0 0.220 -0.005 -0.210 -0.174 0.140
5-6月日照 Sunshine of May and June 0.459** 0.459** 0.459** 0.171 -0.005 -0.140 0.026 -0.021
5-6月降水 Precipitation of May and June 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.244 0.148 -0.011 -0.099 -0.016
7-8月气温 Temperature of July and August -0.441** -0.441** -0.441** 0.189 -0.125 -0.271 -0.338* 0.011
7-8月日照 Sunshine of July and August 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.197 -0.600** 0.002 0.027 0.082
7-8月降水 Precipitation of July and August 0.357* 0.357* 0.357* -0.392** 0.693** -0.104 -0.110 -0.059
9月气温 Temperature of September 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.006 -0.037 -0.083 -0.087 0.171
9月日照 Sunshine of September 0.453** 0.453** 0.453** 0.168 -0.134 0.178 0.001 -0.168
9月降水 Precipitation of September 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.253 0.125 -0.194 -0.157 0.255
生长季气温 Temperature in growing season -0.396** -0.396** -0.396** 0.399** -0.068 -0.269 -0.277 0.137
生长季降水 Precipitation in growing season 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.638** -0.153 -0.182 0.039
生长季日照 Sunshine in growing season 0.125 0.125 0.125 -0.327* -0.372** -.011 0.029 -0.019
吉林
Jilin		 ≥10℃积温 ≥10℃ accumulated temperature 0.502** -0.203 0.056 0.224 -0.120 -0.258 -0.331* 0.031
5-6月气温 Temperature of May and June 0.409** -0.349* 0.181 0.288* -0.040 -0.066 -0.443** 0.052
5-6月日照 Sunshine of May and June -0.353* -0.059 0.328* 0.261 0.156 0.088 -0.117 0.038
5-6月降水 Precipitation of May and June 0.131 0.250 -0.410** -0.510** 0.034 0.136 0.035 -0.095
7-8月气温 Temperature of July and August 0.315* -0.295* 0.013 0.222 -0.167 -0.414** -0.230 0.076
7-8月日照 Sunshine of July and August -0.409** -0.125 0.022 0.361* -0.482** -0.096 0 0.078
7-8月降水 Precipitation of July and August 0.189 0.116 0.089 -0.275 0.624** -0.132 -0.135 -0.104
9月气温 Temperature of September 0. 480** 0.043 -0.117 0.002 -0.145 -0.154 -0.101 0.050
9月日照 Sunshine of September -0.105 -0.114 0.017 0.145 -0.190 0.047 -.102 0.118
9月降水 Precipitation of September -0.076 0.123 0.087 -0.005 0.156 -0.043 0.081 -0.064
辽宁
Liaoning		 ≥10℃积温 ≥10℃ accumulated temperature 0.265 -0.276 0.404** 0.477** -0.088 -0.014 0.023 -0.074
5-6月气温 Temperature of May and June 0.386** -0.273 0.333* 0.435** -0.172 -0.005 -0.007 0.122
5-6月日照 Sunshine of May and June -0.416** -0.119 0.281 0.354* -0.116 0.130 -0.106 -0.013
5-6月降水 Precipitation of May and June 0.135 0.115 -0.265 -0.359* 0.114 0.033 0.075 0.077
7-8月气温 Temperature of July and August 0.178 -0.381** 0.239 0.243 0.023 -0.124 0.021 0.058
7-8月日照 Sunshine of July and August -0.347* -0.074 0.302* 0.514** -0.358* 0.005 0.163 -0.035
7-8月降水 Precipitation of July and August -0.025 -0.049 -0.198 -0.626** 0.714** 0.015 -0.090 -0.029
9月气温 Temperature of September 0.553** 0.161 -0.130 0.064 -0.297* -0.045 -0.070 -0.114
9月日照 Sunshine of September -0.199 0.016 0.191 0.254 -0.176 0.263 0.163 0.028
9月降水 Precipitation of September -0.228 0.192 -0.218 -0.353* 0.185 0.077 0.083 -0.010

Table 1

Direct and indirect effects of agricultural meteorological disasters on corn in Liaoning province"

成灾率
Disaster rates		 决策系数
Decision coefficient		 通径系数
Path
coefficient		 间接通径系数Indirect path coefficient 合计
Total
旱灾成灾率Dr 洪涝成灾率Fr 风灾成灾率Wr 冷冻害成灾率Cr 其他成灾率Or
旱灾成灾率
Drought disaster rates (Dr)		 -0.220 -0.735 — 0.195 -0.016 0.007 0.029 0.215
洪涝成灾率
Flood disaster rate (Fr)		 -0.160 -0.731 0.195 — 0.036 0 0.029 0.260
风灾成灾率
Wind disaster rate (Wr)		 -0.011 -0.183 0.064 -0.146 — 0.003 -0.043 -0.122
冷冻害成灾率
Cold disaster rate (Cr)		 -0.004 -0.067 -0.088 0.005 0.009 — 0.011 -0.069
其他成灾率
Other disaster rates (Or)		 -0.066 -0.057 0.115 0.116 0.042 -0.003 — 0.063

Table 2

Direct and indirect effects of agricultural meteorological disasters on corn in Jilin province"

成灾率
Disaster rates		 决策系数
Decision coefficient		 通径系数
Path
coefficient		 间接通径系数Indirect-path coefficient 合计
Total
Dr Fr Wr Cr Or
旱灾成灾率 Dr -0.389 -0.646 — 0.019 -0.007 0.003 0.006 0.022
洪涝成灾率 Fr -0.009 -0.134 0.019 — 0.004 -0.004 0.007 0.027
风灾成灾率 Wr -0.010 -0.061 0.073 -0.009 — -0.004 -0.009 0.050
冷冻害成灾率 Cr -0.001 -0.043 0.043 -0.012 0.006 — 0 0.037
其他成灾率 Or -0.007 -0.062 0.066 0.015 0.009 0 — 0.090

Table 3

Direct and indirect effects of agricultural meteorological disasters on corn in Heilongjiang province"

成灾率
Disaster rates		 决策系数
Decision coefficient		 通径系数
Path
coefficient		 间接通径系数Indirect path coefficient 合计
Total
Dr Fr Wr Cr Or
旱灾成灾率 Dr -0.300 -0.570 — 0.033 -0.017 0.010 -0.004 0.039
洪涝成灾率 Fr -0.021 -0.127 0.033 — 0.022 0 -0.013 0.041
风灾成灾率 Wr -0.031 -0.174 -0.055 0.016 — 0.003 -0.001 -0.038
冷冻害成灾率 Cr -0.018 0.075 -0.073 0.013 -0.089 — -0.008 -0.157
其他成灾率 Or -0.014 0.081 0.027 0.021 0.003 -0.007 — 0.044
[1] 马建勇, 许吟隆, 潘婕. 东北地区农业气象灾害的趋势变化及其对粮食产量的影响. 中国农业气象, 2012, 33: 283-288.
Ma J Y, Xu Y L, Pan J. Analysis of agro-meteorological disasters tendency variation and the impacts on grain yield over Northeast China. Chin J Agron, 2012, 33: 283-288 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[2] 崔一鸣, 张明哲, 王禄禄, 宋佳, 毕伊红, 辛得, 李明鉴. 1966-2013年东北地区玉米低温冷害指数分析. 现代农业科技, 2018, (15):8-10.
Cui Y M, Zhang M Z, Wang L L, Song J, Bi Y H, Xin D, Li M J. Analysis on low temperature and chilling injury index of corn in Northeast China from 1966 to 2013. Mod Agric Sci Technol, 2018, (15):8-10 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[3] 郭建平, 马树庆. 农作物低温冷害监测预测理论和实践. 北京: 气象出版社, 2009. pp 26-27.
Guo J P, Ma S Q. Theory and Practice of Monitoring and Forecasting Crop Cold Damage. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2009. pp 26-27(in Chinese).
[4] 王春乙, 毛飞. 东北地区低温冷害的分布特征. 见: 王春乙, 郭建平. 农作物低温冷害综合防御技术研究. 北京: 气象出版社, 1999. pp 9-15.
Wang C Y, Mao F. Distribution characteristics of low temperature and chilling damage in Northeast China. In: Wang C Y, Guo J P, eds. Research on Comprehensive Defense Technology of Crops Low Temperature and Chilling Injury. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 1999. pp 9-15(in Chinese).
[5] 马树庆, 刘玉英, 王琪. 玉米低温冷害动态评估和预测方法. 应用生态学报, 2006, 17: 1905-1910.
Ma S Q, Liu Y Y, Wang Q. Dynamic prediction and evaluation method of maize chilling damage. Chin J Appl Ecol, 2006, 17: 1905-1910 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[6] 李帅, 王晾晾, 陈莉, 姜丽霞, 张洪杰, 覃雪. 黑龙江省玉米低温冷害风险综合评估模型研究. 自然资源学报, 2013, 28: 635-645.
Li S, Wang L L, Chen L, Jiang L X, Zhang H J, Qin X. The comprehensive risk evaluation model of chilling injury to maize in Heilongjiang province. J Nat Res, 2013, 28: 635-645 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[7] 张方亮, 杨晓光. 东北三省春玉米生长季主要农业气象灾害特征分析. 见: 第十五届全国玉米栽培学术研讨会会议论文集. 北京: 中国作物学会, 2017. pp 115-117.
Zhang F L, Yang X G. Analysis on the characteristics of main agro-meteorological disasters in spring corn growing season in the three Northeast provinces. In: Proceedings of the 15th National Corn Cultivation Symposium. Beijing: Crop Science Society of China, 2017. pp 115-117(in Chinese).
[8] 陈振林, 张建平, 王春乙, 郑江平. 应用WOFOST模型模拟低温与干旱对玉米产量的综合影响. 中国农业气象, 2007, 28: 440-442.
Chen Z L, Zhang J P, Wang C Y, Zheng J P. Application of WOFOST model in simulation of integrated impacts of low temperature and drought on maize yield. Chin J Agrometeorol, 2007, 28: 440-442 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[9] 高晓容. 东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评估研究. 南京信息工程大学硕士论文, 江苏南京, 2012.
Gao X R. Study on the Risk Assessment of the Main Meteorological Disasters for Maize in Northeast China. MS Thesis of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China, 2012 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[10] 杨若子, 周广胜. 东北三省玉米主要农业气象灾害综合危险性评估. 气象学报, 2015, 73: 1141-1153.
Yang R Z, Zhou G S. Comprehensive risk assessment of the main maize agro-meteorological disasters in the three provinces of Northeast China. Acta Meteorol Sin, 2015, 73: 1141-1153 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[11] 杨若子. 东北玉米主要农业气象灾害的时空特征与风险综合评估. 南京信息工程大学硕士论文, 江苏南京, 2015.
Yang R Z. Northeast China Maize Trend Yield Agrometeorological Disasters Risk Assessment. MS Thesis of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China, 2015 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[12] 张琪, 丛鹏, 彭励. 通径分析在Excel和SPSS中的实现. 农业网络信息, 2007, (3):109-110.
Zhang Q, Cong P, Peng L. The realization of path analysis in Excel and SPSS. Agric Netw Inf, 2007, (3):109-110 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[13] 杜家菊, 陈志伟. 使用SPSS线性回归实现通径分析的方法. 生物学通报, 2010, 45(2):4-6.
Du J J, Chen Z W. Using SPSS linear regression to realize path analysis. Bull Biol, 2010, 45(2):4-6 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[14] 林德光. 通径分析法在腰果播种巾的应用——兼论通径分析的SAS实施. 热带作物学报, 2001, 22(3):34-39.
Lin D G. The application of path analysis method in cashew nut sowing towels and the SAS implementation of path analysis. Chin J Trop Crop, 2001, 22(3):34-39 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[15] 黄大辉, 彭懿紫, 黄天进, 蔡巨广, 莫永生, 曾超珍. 杂交水稻主要性状的多重逐步回归和通径分析. 广西农业生物科学, 2004, 23(2):100-103.
Huang D H, Peng Y Z, Huang T J, Cai J G, Mo Y S, Zeng C Z. Multiple stepwise regression and path analysis of the main characters of hybrid rice. Guangxi Agric Biol Sci, 2004, 23(2):100-103 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[16] 刘美含, 史海滨, 李仙岳, 闫建文, 孙伟, 窦旭. 河套灌区玉米农田蒸散动态变化及其影响因子的通径分析. 排灌机械工程学报, 2018, 36: 1081-1086.
Liu M H, Shi H B, Li X Y, Yan J W, Sun W, Dou X. Path analysis of dynamic changes of corn farmland evapotranspiration and its influencing factors in Hetao irrigation area. J Dra Irri Mach Eng, 2018, 36: 1081-1086 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[17] 袁志发, 周静芋, 郭满才, 雷雪芹, 解小莉. 决策系数——通径分析中的决策指标. 西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版), 2001, 29(5):131-133.
Yuan Z F, Zhou J W, Guo M C, Lei X Q, Xie X L. Decision coefficient—the decision index in path analysis. J Northwest A&F Univ (Nat Sci Edn), 2001, 29(5):131-133 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[18] 王春乙, 张建平. 东北农作物冷害干旱并发影响评估. 见: 王春乙. 东北地区农作物低温冷害研究. 北京: 气象出版社, 2008. pp 163-173.
Wang C Y, Zhang J P. Evaluation on the concurrent effects of crop chilling injury and drought in Northeast China. In: Wang C Y, ed. Study on Chilling Injury of Crops in Northeast China. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2008. pp 163-173(in Chinese).
[19] 张星, 郑有飞, 周乐照. 农业气象灾害灾情等级划分与年景评估. 生态学杂志, 2007, 26: 418-421.
Zhang X, Zheng Y F, Zhou L Z. Grade classification and annual case assessment of agro-meteorological disasters in Fujian province. Chin J Ecol, 2007, 26: 418-421 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[1] CHEN Song-Yu, DING Yi-Juan, SUN Jun-Ming, HUANG Deng-Wen, YANG Nan, DAI Yu-Han, WAN Hua-Fang, QIAN Wei. Genome-wide identification of BnCNGC and the gene expression analysis in Brassica napus challenged with Sclerotinia sclerotiorum and PEG-simulated drought [J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2022, 48(6): 1357-1371.
[2] ZHOU Wen-Qi, QIANG Xiao-Xia, WANG Sen, JIANG Jing-Wen, WEI Wan-Rong. Mechanism of drought and salt tolerance of OsLPL2/PIR gene in rice [J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2022, 48(6): 1401-1415.
[3] WANG Xing-Rong, LI Yue, ZHANG Yan-Jun, LI Yong-Sheng, WANG Jun-Cheng, XU Yin-Ping, QI Xu-Sheng. Drought resistance identification and drought resistance indexes screening of Tibetan hulless barley resources at adult stage [J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2022, 48(5): 1279-1287.
[4] LI A-Li, FENG Ya-Nan, LI Ping, ZHANG Dong-Sheng, ZONG Yu-Zheng, LIN Wen, HAO Xing-Yu. Transcriptome analysis of leaves responses to elevated CO2 concentration, drought and interaction conditions in soybean [Glycine max (Linn.) Merr.] [J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2022, 48(5): 1103-1118.
[5] WANG Xia, YIN Xiao-Yu, Yu Xiao-Ming, LIU Xiao-Dan. Effects of drought hardening on contemporary expression of drought stress memory genes and DNA methylation in promoter of B73 inbred progeny [J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2022, 48(5): 1191-1198.
[6] DING Hong, XU Yang, ZHANG Guan-Chu, QIN Fei-Fei, DAI Liang-Xiang, ZHANG Zhi-Meng. Effects of drought at different growth stages and nitrogen application on nitrogen absorption and utilization in peanut [J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2022, 48(3): 695-703.
[7] ZHANG Hai-Yan, XIE Bei-Tao, JIANG Chang-Song, FENG Xiang-Yang, ZHANG Qiao, DONG Shun-Xu, WANG Bao-Qing, ZHANG Li-Ming, QIN Zhen, DUAN Wen-Xue. Screening of leaf physiological characteristics and drought-tolerant indexes of sweetpotato cultivars with drought resistance [J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2022, 48(2): 518-528.
[8] CAO Liang, DU Xin, YU Gao-Bo, JIN Xi-Jun, ZHANG Ming-Cong, REN Chun-Yuan, WANG Meng-Xue, ZHANG Yu-Xian. Regulation of carbon and nitrogen metabolism in leaf of soybean cultivar Suinong 26 at seed-filling stage under drought stress by exogenous melatonin [J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2021, 47(9): 1779-1790.
[9] ZHANG Ming-Cong, HE Song-Yu, QIN Bin, WANG Meng-Xue, JIN Xi-Jun, REN Chun-Yuan, WU Yao-Kun, ZHANG Yu-Xian. Effects of exogenous melatonin on morphology, photosynthetic physiology, and yield of spring soybean variety Suinong 26 under drought stress [J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2021, 47(9): 1791-1805.
[10] YUE Dan-Dan, HAN Bei, Abid Ullah, ZHANG Xian-Long, YANG Xi-Yan. Fungi diversity analysis of rhizosphere under drought conditions in cotton [J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2021, 47(9): 1806-1815.
[11] LI Jie, FU Hui, YAO Xiao-Hua, WU Kun-Lun. Differentially expressed protein analysis of different drought tolerance hulless barley leaves [J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2021, 47(7): 1248-1258.
[12] LI Hui, LI De-Fang, DENG Yong, PAN Gen, CHEN An-Guo, ZHAO Li-Ning, TANG Hui-Juan. Expression analysis of abiotic stress response gene HcWRKY71 in kenaf and transformation of Arabidopsis [J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2021, 47(6): 1090-1099.
[13] LI Peng-Cheng, BI Zhen-Zhen, SUN Chao, QIN Tian-Yuan, LIANG Wen-Jun, WANG Yi-Hao, XU De-Rong, LIU Yu-Hui, ZHANG Jun-Lian, BAI Jiang-Ping. Key genes mining of DNA methylation involved in regulating drought stress response in potato [J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2021, 47(4): 599-612.
[14] ZHAO Jia-Jia, QIAO Ling, WU Bang-Bang, GE Chuan, QIAO Lin-Yi, ZHANG Shu-Wei, YAN Su-Xian, ZHENG Xing-Wei, ZHENG Jun. Seedling root characteristics and drought resistance of wheat in Shanxi province [J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2021, 47(4): 714-727.
[15] QIN Tian-Yuan, LIU Yu-Hui, SUN Chao, BI Zhen-Zhen, LI An-Yi, XU De-Rong, WANG Yi-Hao, ZHANG Jun-Lian, BAI Jiang-Ping. Identification of StIgt gene family and expression profile analysis of response to drought stress in potato [J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2021, 47(4): 780-786.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!
Add: No.12 Zhongguancun South Street, Beijing 100081,China Email:xbzw@chinajournal.net.cn
Supported by Beijing Magtech Co.Ltd