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Acta Agronomica Sinica ›› 2022, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (6): 1537-1545.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2022.03061

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• RESEARCH NOTES • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Effect of agricultural meteorological disasters on the production corn in the Northeast China

LI Yi-Jun(), LYU Hou-Quan*()   

  1. National Meteorological Centre of China, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2020-10-19 Accepted:2021-10-20 Online:2022-06-12 Published:2021-11-18
  • Contact: LYU Hou-Quan E-mail:duoshaoduo151@163.com;daoshaodao@163.com
  • Supported by:
    National Key Basic Research Program(2013CB430205);National Key Research and Development Program of China(2019YFD1002201)

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Abstract:

Agricultural meteorological disasters are the main natural disasters that threaten grain output. In recent years, with climate change, agricultural meteorological disasters are more and more frequent, and their impact on northeast China is also increasing. In this paper, to make better use of advantages and avoid disadvantages in actual production to ensure food production safety, spring corn in three provinces of northeast China was taken as the research object to discuss the impact of major agricultural meteorological disasters in this region on spring corn yield and its degree. The results showed that agricultural meteorological disasters could explain about 50% of the fluctuation of spring corn yield in Northeast China, and the main agricultural meteorological disasters that affected spring corn production had changed from cold damage in the traditional sense to drought. Under the background of climate warming, the main factor affecting spring corn production was changed from thermal condition to water condition, and drought had become the primary disaster threatening spring corn production. The agricultural meteorological disasters that affected the spring corn yield in Liaoning province were drought, flood, and wind in order of the degree of influence. The agricultural meteorological disaster that affected spring corn yield in Jilin province was only drought. The agricultural meteorological disasters affecting the yield of spring corn in Heilongjiang province were ranked as flood, drought, and cold damage according to the degree of impact. In conclusion, due to geographical differences, the main agro-meteorological disasters affecting the corn production in the three provinces of Northeast China were also different, and their complexity was not the same, which cannot be generalized in the specific study.

Key words: agricultural meteorological disasters, drought, flood, cold damage, corn yield

Fig. 1

Average air temperatures (a) and its mutation test (b) in the research region from 1971 to 2018"

Fig. 2

Precipitation in the research site from 1971 to 2018"

Fig. 3

Area of meteorological disaster in the research site from 1971 to 2018"

Fig. 4

Different of meteorological disasters in the research site from 1971 to 2018"

Table S1

Relationship between agricultural meteorological disasters and meteorological elements on study region"

省份
Province		 气象要素
Meteorological elements		 实际产量
Actual output		 气象产量滑5a relative weather yield 总成灾率
Total hazard rate		 旱灾成灾率
Drought disaster rate		 水灾成灾率
Flood disaster rate		 风灾成灾率
Wind disaster rate		 冷害成灾率
Chilling damage disaster rate		 其他成灾率
Other disaster rate
黑龙江
Heilongjiang		 ≥10℃积温 ≥10℃ accumulated temperature 0.593** 0.593** 0.593** 0.180 0.015 -0.190 -0.238 0.146
5-6月气温 Temperature of May and June 0 0 0 0.220 -0.005 -0.210 -0.174 0.140
5-6月日照 Sunshine of May and June 0.459** 0.459** 0.459** 0.171 -0.005 -0.140 0.026 -0.021
5-6月降水 Precipitation of May and June 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.244 0.148 -0.011 -0.099 -0.016
7-8月气温 Temperature of July and August -0.441** -0.441** -0.441** 0.189 -0.125 -0.271 -0.338* 0.011
7-8月日照 Sunshine of July and August 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.197 -0.600** 0.002 0.027 0.082
7-8月降水 Precipitation of July and August 0.357* 0.357* 0.357* -0.392** 0.693** -0.104 -0.110 -0.059
9月气温 Temperature of September 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.006 -0.037 -0.083 -0.087 0.171
9月日照 Sunshine of September 0.453** 0.453** 0.453** 0.168 -0.134 0.178 0.001 -0.168
9月降水 Precipitation of September 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.253 0.125 -0.194 -0.157 0.255
生长季气温 Temperature in growing season -0.396** -0.396** -0.396** 0.399** -0.068 -0.269 -0.277 0.137
生长季降水 Precipitation in growing season 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.638** -0.153 -0.182 0.039
生长季日照 Sunshine in growing season 0.125 0.125 0.125 -0.327* -0.372** -.011 0.029 -0.019
吉林
Jilin		 ≥10℃积温 ≥10℃ accumulated temperature 0.502** -0.203 0.056 0.224 -0.120 -0.258 -0.331* 0.031
5-6月气温 Temperature of May and June 0.409** -0.349* 0.181 0.288* -0.040 -0.066 -0.443** 0.052
5-6月日照 Sunshine of May and June -0.353* -0.059 0.328* 0.261 0.156 0.088 -0.117 0.038
5-6月降水 Precipitation of May and June 0.131 0.250 -0.410** -0.510** 0.034 0.136 0.035 -0.095
7-8月气温 Temperature of July and August 0.315* -0.295* 0.013 0.222 -0.167 -0.414** -0.230 0.076
7-8月日照 Sunshine of July and August -0.409** -0.125 0.022 0.361* -0.482** -0.096 0 0.078
7-8月降水 Precipitation of July and August 0.189 0.116 0.089 -0.275 0.624** -0.132 -0.135 -0.104
9月气温 Temperature of September 0. 480** 0.043 -0.117 0.002 -0.145 -0.154 -0.101 0.050
9月日照 Sunshine of September -0.105 -0.114 0.017 0.145 -0.190 0.047 -.102 0.118
9月降水 Precipitation of September -0.076 0.123 0.087 -0.005 0.156 -0.043 0.081 -0.064
辽宁
Liaoning		 ≥10℃积温 ≥10℃ accumulated temperature 0.265 -0.276 0.404** 0.477** -0.088 -0.014 0.023 -0.074
5-6月气温 Temperature of May and June 0.386** -0.273 0.333* 0.435** -0.172 -0.005 -0.007 0.122
5-6月日照 Sunshine of May and June -0.416** -0.119 0.281 0.354* -0.116 0.130 -0.106 -0.013
5-6月降水 Precipitation of May and June 0.135 0.115 -0.265 -0.359* 0.114 0.033 0.075 0.077
7-8月气温 Temperature of July and August 0.178 -0.381** 0.239 0.243 0.023 -0.124 0.021 0.058
7-8月日照 Sunshine of July and August -0.347* -0.074 0.302* 0.514** -0.358* 0.005 0.163 -0.035
7-8月降水 Precipitation of July and August -0.025 -0.049 -0.198 -0.626** 0.714** 0.015 -0.090 -0.029
9月气温 Temperature of September 0.553** 0.161 -0.130 0.064 -0.297* -0.045 -0.070 -0.114
9月日照 Sunshine of September -0.199 0.016 0.191 0.254 -0.176 0.263 0.163 0.028
9月降水 Precipitation of September -0.228 0.192 -0.218 -0.353* 0.185 0.077 0.083 -0.010

Table 1

Direct and indirect effects of agricultural meteorological disasters on corn in Liaoning province"

成灾率
Disaster rates		 决策系数
Decision coefficient		 通径系数
Path
coefficient		 间接通径系数Indirect path coefficient 合计
Total
旱灾成灾率Dr 洪涝成灾率Fr 风灾成灾率Wr 冷冻害成灾率Cr 其他成灾率Or
旱灾成灾率
Drought disaster rates (Dr)		 -0.220 -0.735 — 0.195 -0.016 0.007 0.029 0.215
洪涝成灾率
Flood disaster rate (Fr)		 -0.160 -0.731 0.195 — 0.036 0 0.029 0.260
风灾成灾率
Wind disaster rate (Wr)		 -0.011 -0.183 0.064 -0.146 — 0.003 -0.043 -0.122
冷冻害成灾率
Cold disaster rate (Cr)		 -0.004 -0.067 -0.088 0.005 0.009 — 0.011 -0.069
其他成灾率
Other disaster rates (Or)		 -0.066 -0.057 0.115 0.116 0.042 -0.003 — 0.063

Table 2

Direct and indirect effects of agricultural meteorological disasters on corn in Jilin province"

成灾率
Disaster rates		 决策系数
Decision coefficient		 通径系数
Path
coefficient		 间接通径系数Indirect-path coefficient 合计
Total
Dr Fr Wr Cr Or
旱灾成灾率 Dr -0.389 -0.646 — 0.019 -0.007 0.003 0.006 0.022
洪涝成灾率 Fr -0.009 -0.134 0.019 — 0.004 -0.004 0.007 0.027
风灾成灾率 Wr -0.010 -0.061 0.073 -0.009 — -0.004 -0.009 0.050
冷冻害成灾率 Cr -0.001 -0.043 0.043 -0.012 0.006 — 0 0.037
其他成灾率 Or -0.007 -0.062 0.066 0.015 0.009 0 — 0.090

Table 3

Direct and indirect effects of agricultural meteorological disasters on corn in Heilongjiang province"

成灾率
Disaster rates		 决策系数
Decision coefficient		 通径系数
Path
coefficient		 间接通径系数Indirect path coefficient 合计
Total
Dr Fr Wr Cr Or
旱灾成灾率 Dr -0.300 -0.570 — 0.033 -0.017 0.010 -0.004 0.039
洪涝成灾率 Fr -0.021 -0.127 0.033 — 0.022 0 -0.013 0.041
风灾成灾率 Wr -0.031 -0.174 -0.055 0.016 — 0.003 -0.001 -0.038
冷冻害成灾率 Cr -0.018 0.075 -0.073 0.013 -0.089 — -0.008 -0.157
其他成灾率 Or -0.014 0.081 0.027 0.021 0.003 -0.007 — 0.044
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