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作物学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (3): 323-334.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2019.82044

• 综述 •    下一篇

气候变化对中国水稻生产的影响研究进展

凌霄霞1,张作林1,翟景秋2,叶树春3,黄见良1,*()   

  1. 1农业部长江中游作物生理生态与耕作重点实验室 / 华中农业大学植物科学技术学院, 湖北武汉 430070
    2中国人民解放军31010部队, 北京 100081
    3广东省云浮市气象局, 广东云浮 527300
  • 收稿日期:2018-08-19 接受日期:2018-12-25 出版日期:2019-03-12 网络出版日期:2019-01-07
  • 通讯作者: 黄见良
  • 作者简介:E-mail: lingxiaoxia@mail.hzau.edu.cn, Tel: 027-87282213
  • 基金资助:
    本研究由国家重点研发计划项目资助(2016YFD0300210);本研究由国家重点研发计划项目资助(2017YFD0300101)

A review for impacts of climate change on rice production in China

Xiao-Xia LING1,Zuo-Lin ZHANG1,Jing-Qiu ZHAI2,Shu-Chun YE3,Jian-Liang HUANG1,*()   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, Ministry of Agriculture / College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, Hubei, China
    2 31010 of PLA Troops, Beijing 100081, China
    3 Meteorological Bureau of Yunfu City, Yunfu 527300, Guangdong, China
  • Received:2018-08-19 Accepted:2018-12-25 Published:2019-03-12 Published online:2019-01-07
  • Contact: Jian-Liang HUANG
  • Supported by:
    This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFD0300210);This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFD0300101)

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摘要：

水稻生产系统是响应气候变化最敏感的农业生态系统之一, 本文综述了当前和未来气候变化对我国水稻生产的影响。气候变化背景下, 我国水稻生长季的热量资源增多, 辐射资源减少, 降水不均一性加大。高温热害、干旱、暴雨和洪涝灾害发生更频繁, 这可能降低水、热资源的有效性。气候变化使我国单季稻和双季稻潜在种植边界显著北移, 导致单季稻、早稻和晚稻的主要生育期缩短。基于统计模型和水稻生长模型的研究结果表明, 如果不考虑品种改良和栽培技术的进步, 气候变化使单季稻、早稻和晚稻产量下降, 但不同稻作区和方法间存在差异。我国水稻生产重心北移、实测生育期延长和产量增加的变化趋势, 反映了水稻生产系统通过种植分布调整、品种改良和技术改进来适应气候变化的能力。未来气候变化将进一步导致水稻生育期缩短和产量下降, 对我国水稻生产和粮食安全带来严峻挑战。仍需加强气候变化影响机制的研究及其在影响评估中的应用, 减小影响评估的不确定性并增加其系统性, 为制定有效的应对策略提供可靠的理论支持。

关键词: 气候变暖, 种植北界, 稻作制度, 生育期, 产量

Abstract:

Rice production system is one of the most sensitive agricultural ecosystems in response to climate change. Here, we reviewed the effects of current and future climate change on rice production in China. Over the past few decades, the thermal resources during rice growing seasons showed an increasing trend, while solar radiation resources showed a decreasing trend and the precipitation’s heterogeneity increased. The frequencies of high temperature stress, heavy precipitation, drought and flood increased, which may lower down the effectiveness of hydrothermal resources. Climate change has led to a significant northward shift of potential planting boundaries for single and double rice production systems, resulted in a negative impact on the length of growth period for single rice, early rice and late rice. The researches based on statistical models and process-based crop models showed that climate change hampered rice production of China. Most reports indicated a reducing trend of yield caused by climate change for single rice, early rice and late rice, but there were still some differences in results from different methods and rice cropping regions. The trends of prolonging growth period and increasing yield are a reflection of the capability of rice production system in China to adapt to climate change, through regulating planting regionalization and improving variety and culture technics. The impact assessment with different climate scenarios showed that the projected growth period of rice would shorten and projected yield would decrease in future. That means climate change will seriously challenge the rice production and food security in China. For further study, deeper understanding of abiotic stress physiology and its incorporation into ecophysiological models, reducing the uncertainty and extending the systematicness of impact assessment are the important research areas that require much attention.

Key words: global warming, northern boundary, rice planting system, growth stage, grain yield

表1

当前气候变化对中国水稻产量的影响"

稻作类型
Rice system		 研究区域
Region		 研究时段
Period		 变化趋势Change trend 评估方法
Method		 参考文献
Reference
统计模型a
Statistical modela
(t hm-210 yr-1)		 作物模型b
Crop modelb
(t hm-210 yr-1)
单季稻 Single rice 全国4个站点
Four stations of China		 1981-2009 0.85 -0.45 RiceGrow [36]
单季稻 Single rice 东北 Northeast China 1980-2010 1.07 -0.01 ORYZA2000 [5]
单季稻 Single rice 华北 North China 1980-2010 0.58 -0.31 ORYZA2000 [5]
早稻 Early rice 3个双季稻试验站点
Three stations of double rice experiment		 1981-2009 0.37 -0.09 RiceGrow [37]
晚稻 Late rice 3个双季稻试验站点
Three stations of double rice experiment		 1981-2009 0.53 -0.10 RiceGrow [37]
单、双季稻
Single and double rice		 华东
Eastern China		 1980-2010 0.61 -0.56 ORYZA2000 [5]
单、双季稻
Single and double rice		 华中
Central China		 1980-2010 0.63 -0.27 ORYZA2000 [5]
单、双季稻
Single and double rice		 西南
Southwest China		 1980-2010 0.86 -0.26 ORYZA2000 [5]
双季稻 Double rice 华南 Southern China 1980-2010 0.75 -0.17 ORYZA2000 [5]
— 平均 Average 1980-2010 0.69 -0.25 — —
水稻 Rice 全国 China 1961-2010 — -11.5% CERES-Rice [11]
水稻 Rice 全国 China 1961-2010 — -12.4% (-4.2%) CERES-Rice [54]
— 平均 Average 1961-2010 — -12.0% — —
水稻 Rice 全国 China 1981-2010 — (2%) EPIC, DSSAT [45]
水稻 Rice 全国 China 1980-2009 — (4.4%) Agro-C [44]
单季稻 Single rice 全国 China 1980-2009 — (3.4%) Agro-C [44]
早稻 Early rice 双季稻区 Double rice region 1980-2009 — (4.8%) Agro-C [44]
晚稻 Late rice 双季稻区 Double rice region 1980-2009 — (7.8%) Agro-C [44]
单季稻 Single rice 东北 Northeast China 1981-2009 1.01% to 3.29% — Panel model [14]
单季稻 Single rice 长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River 1981-2009 -9.68% to-7.14% — Panel model [14]
早稻 Early rice 长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River 1981-2009 -0.59% to 2.40% — Panel model [14]
晚稻 Late rice 长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River 1981-2009 8.38% to 9.56% — Panel model [14]
水稻 Rice 南方稻区
Southern China		 温度升高1℃
Elevated temperature 1℃		 -3.48% to -2.52% — 经济-气候模型
Economy-Climate model		 [103]
双季稻 Double rice 南方稻区 Southern China 1980-2008 -0.17% yr-1 — Statistical model [94]
稻作类型
Rice system		 研究区域
Region		 研究时段
Period		 变化趋势Change trend 评估方法
Method		 参考文献
Reference
统计模型a
Statistical modela
(t hm-210 yr-1)		 作物模型b
Crop modelb
(t hm-210 yr-1)
单季稻 Single rice 东北 Northeast China 1980-2008 0.59% yr-1 — Statistical model [94]
单季稻 Single rice 云贵高原
Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau		 1980-2008 0.34% yr-1 — Statistical model [94]
单季稻 Single rice 四川盆地 Sichuan Basin 1980-2008 -0.29% yr-1 — Statistical model [94]

表2

未来气候变化对水稻产量的可能影响"

稻作类型
Rice system		 研究区域
Region		 研究时段
Period		 基准时段
Baseline		 气候情景a
Climate scenarioa		 气候模式b
Climate modelb		 作物模型
Crop model		 变化趋势c Change trendc 文献来源
Reference
气候变化
Climate change (%)		 CO2效应
CO2 effect (%)		 适应策略
Adaptation (%)		 CO2效应+适应策略
CO2 effect + Adaptation (%)
单季稻
Single rice		 中国东部
Eastern China		 2020s, 2050s, 2080s 1961-1990 A1FI, B1 5 GCMs MCWLA-Rice -15.8
(-29.4 to -3.7)		 8.4
(0.7 to 13.2)		 — — [92]
单、双季稻
Single and double rice		 长江中下游
Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River		 2021-2050 1961-1990 A2, B2 PRECIS RCM ORYZA2000 -15.1 -5.5 — — [86]
早稻、单季稻
Early and single rice		 南方稻区
Southern China		 2071-2090 1961-1990 B2 PRECIS RCM CERES-Rice -3.8
(-7.0 to -0.25)		 8.6
(5.0 to 20.0)		 — — [87]
单、双季稻
Single and double rice		 全国6个站点
Six stations of China		 2001-2100 1961-1990 ET1℃,2℃,3℃ 5 GCMs CERES-Rice -20.4
(-40.2 to -6.1)		 -4.8
(-19.3 to 0.18)		 — — [83]
单、双季稻
Single and double rice		 全国
China		 2020s, 2050s, 2080s 1961-1990 A2, B2 PRECIS RCM CERES-Rice -10.8
(-26.2 to 6.3)		 3.5
(-5.6 to 15.8)		 — — [82]
早稻、晚稻
Early and late rice		 双季稻区
Double rice region		 — 1961-1990 A(ET1.7℃) DKRZ OPYC(LSG) 双季稻生长动力模拟模型
Dynamic growth simulation model for double-rice		 -15.2
(-19.0 to -11.2)		 — 8.7
(-7.0 to 23.1)		 — [104]
水稻
Rice		 全国
China		 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, 2050s 2009 A2, B2 PRECIS RCM CERES-Rice — 10.5
(6.0-18.0)		 — 15.8
(11.0 to 21.0)		 [105]
单、双季稻
Single and double rice		 全国
China		 2011-2050 2000-2009 A2, B2 PRECIS RCM Agro-C -3.3 20.9 3.2 28.6 [106]
单、双季稻
Single and double rice		 全国
China		 2030s, 2050s, 2070s 2000s RCP4.5 17 GCMs CERES-Rice — -0.9
(-11.0 to 11.0)		 4.9
(1.0 to 11.0)		 — [78]
单、双季稻
Single and double rice		 全国
China		 2106-2115 2006-2015 ET1.5℃, 2.0℃ 4 GCMs MCWLA-Rice -0.9
(-0.7, 2.4)		 6.8
(4.1, 9.4)		 — — [84]
— 平均 Average — — — — — -10.7 5.3 5.6 22.2 —
水稻
Rice		 全球
World		 2070-2100 1981-2010 RCP2.6, 4.5,
6.0, 8.5		 11-22 ESMs 7 Global grid-based models -3.3, -5.5, -6.8, -10.8 — — — [85]
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