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作物学报

作物学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (10): 2599-2613.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2024.31082

• 耕作栽培·生理生化 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化与轮作制度对晋北饲用燕麦产草量的影响

成华强1,2,3(), 侯青青1,2,3, 朱敏1,2,3, 杨轩1,2,3,*()   

  1. 1山西农业大学草业学院, 山西太谷 030801
    2草地生态保护与乡土草种质创新山西省重点实验室, 山西右玉 037200
    3山西右玉黄土高原草地生态系统定位观测研究站, 山西右玉 037200
  • 收稿日期:2023-12-22 接受日期:2024-06-20 出版日期:2024-10-12 网络出版日期:2024-07-09
  • 通讯作者: *杨轩, E-mail: yangxuan2019@sxau.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:E-mail: 13033466023@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(32001404);山西农业大学科技创新基金项目(2020BQ26)

Effects of climate change and crop rotation system on forage oats yield in northern Shanxi province

CHENG Hua-Qiang1,2,3(), HOU Qing-Qing1,2,3, ZHU Min1,2,3, YANG Xuan1,2,3,*()   

  1. 1College of Grassland Science, Shanxi Agricultural University, Taigu 030801, Shanxi, China
    2Shanxi Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecological Protection and Native Grass Germplasm Innovation, Youyu 037200, Shanxi, China
    3Shanxi Youyu Loess Plateau Grassland Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Youyu 037200, Shanxi, China
  • Received:2023-12-22 Accepted:2024-06-20 Published:2024-10-12 Published online:2024-07-09
  • Contact: *E-mail: yangxuan2019@sxau.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    Youth Science Foundation of National Natural Science Foundation of China(32001404);Science and Technology Innovation Fund of Shanxi Agricultural University(2020BQ26)

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摘要：

本研究旨在探究适合晋北地区饲用燕麦(Avena sativa L.)轮作制度及各区域饲用燕麦产量对气候变化和轮作制度的响应。为此, 基于已验证的APSIM (Agricultural Production System sIMulator)设定3种轮作制度, 即O-O (饲用燕麦连作)、P-O (马铃薯-饲用燕麦轮作)、M-O (玉米-饲用燕麦轮作), 结合气候模型对晋北18个站点进行模拟研究。 结果表明: APSIM可有效模拟晋北地区玉米, 马铃薯和饲用燕麦的生产, 归一化均方根误差NRMSE小于21%, 一致性系数d大于0.90; 平鲁、神池、左云饲用燕麦产草量高(16,020~20,817 kg hm-2); 对比MID与BAS时期, 各站点O-O、M-O、P-O饲用燕麦产草量增加5.49%~23.20%; 对比END和MID时期, 代县、大同等10站点O-O、M-O和P-O的饲用燕麦产草量提高0.27%~9.15%, 繁峙仅O-O产草量显著下降22.76%; P-O系统有更多的季后土壤水分留存, 多数情况下实行该系统更利于饲用燕麦高稳产; 土壤储水能力较差但植物可利用水分较高的阳高点, 易因预测情景的降雨量提高弥补燕麦生长旺盛期被利用的水分, 利于耗水较多的O-O。综上, 本研究结果有助于挖掘晋北区域饲用燕麦生产对区域气候变化的响应机制, 并为饲用燕麦高产、稳产的科学管理提供理论基础。

关键词: 饲用燕麦, 轮作, 晋北农牧交错带, 气候变化, APSIM

Abstract:

To investigate the suitability of crop rotation systems involving forage oats (Avena sativa L.) and their response to climate change in northern Shanxi province, this study utilized the validated APSIM (Agricultural Production System sIMulator) climate model. Three planting patterns were employed: O-O (continuous cropping of forage oats), P-O (rotation of potato and forage oats), and M-O (rotation of maize and forage oats). Scenario simulations were conducted at eighteen sites. The results demonstrated the effective simulation of maize, potato, and forage oats production in northern Shanxi Province using APSIM. The normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) values were below 21%, while the Willmott agreement index (d) values exceeded 0.90. The highest forage oats yield was observed in Pinglu, Shenchi, and Zuoyun, ranging from 16,020 to 20,817 kg hm-2. The forage yield of O-O, M-O, and P-O systems in the mid-period (MID) exhibited an increase of 5.49% to 23.20% compared to the base period (BAS). In the end period (END), the forage oats yield in Daixian, Datong, and 10 other locations improved by 0.27% to 9.15% compared to the MID period, while it decreased by 1.84% to 4.10% in Zuoyun, Shuozhou, Youyu, and Shenchi. Notably, the forage yield of O-O in Fanshi was 22.76% lower in the END period compared to the MID period. The P-O system exhibited superior soil water retention compared to other systems after the growing seasons, making it more effective in achieving high and stable forage oats production in most cases. For the Yanggao site, which had poor soil water storage capacity but high plant available water, the projected high precipitation conditions would compensate for the relatively high-water consumption in the O-O system. Overall, the findings of this study contribute to understanding the response mechanism of forage oats production to regional climate change in northern Shanxi Province and provide a theoretical basis for the scientific management of high and stable forage oats production.

Key words: forage oats, crop rotation, Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of northern Shanxi, climate change, APSIM

表1

研究区土壤基本参数[22]"

土壤深度
Soil depth
(cm)		 容重
Bulk density
(g cm-3)		 萎蔫系数
15 bar lower
(mm mm-1)		 田间持水量
Field capacity
(mm mm-1)		 饱和含水量
Field saturation
(mm mm-1)		 风干系数
Airdry coefficient
(mm mm-1)
0-10 1.256 0.140 0.235 0.483 0.011
10-20 1.324 0.148 0.259 0.477 0.012
20-40 1.313 0.160 0.254 0.457 0.014
40-60 1.327 0.172 0.264 0.436 0.018
60-80 1.354 0.231 0.275 0.428 0.016
80-100 1.368 0.173 0.285 0.447 0.017
100-120 1.418 0.174 0.311 0.334 0.017

表2

饲用燕麦、玉米、马铃薯的基本参数[22]"

作物
Crop		 参数
Parameter		 描述
Description		 值
Value
饲用燕麦
(黑玫克)
Forage oats
(Haymaker)		 tt_end_of_juvenile 生长期结束至初花期积温
Thermal time from end of juvenile to floral initiation (℃ d)		 210
tt_floral_initiation 初花期至盛花期积温 Thermal time from floral initiation to flowering (℃ d) 290
tt_flowering 盛花期至灌浆期积温 Thermal time from flowering to grain filling (℃ d) 130
photop_sens 光周期敏感性指数 Photoperiod sensitivity 1.5
y_height 最大株高 Maximal plant heigh (mm) 1500
y_rue 辐射利用效率 Radiation use efficiency (g MJ-1) 1.9
vern_sens 春化敏感性指数 Vernalization sensitivity 3.0
tt_start_grain_fill 灌浆期所需积温 Thermal time for grain filling stage (℃ d) 545
y_sla_max 最大比叶面积 Maximum specific leaf area for delta LAI 2000-2200
sla_min 最小比叶面积 Minimum specific leaf area for delta LAI 1800
玉米
(利合228)
Maize
(Lihe 228)		 tt_emerg_to_endjuv 出苗至生长期结束积温 Thermal time from emergency to end of juvenile (℃ d) 200
tt_flower_to_start_grain 盛花期至灌浆期积温Thermal time from flowering to grain filling (℃ d) 170
tt_flower_to_maturity 盛花期至成熟期积温Thermal time from flowering to maturity (℃ d) 570
leaf_init_rate 花期前叶片分化积温
Degree days to initiate each leaf primordium until floral init (deg day) (℃ d)		 27
y_height 最大株高Maximal plant heigh (mm) 3000
rue 辐射利用效率Radiation use efficiency (g MJ-1) 1.85
photoperiod_crit1 光周期临界值1 Photoperiod critical value 1 (h) 12.5
photoperiod_crit2 光周期临界值2 Photoperiod critical value 2 (h) 20.0
photoperiod_slope 光周期斜率 Photoperiodslope 0.1
potKernelWt 潜在千粒重Potential thousand seed weight 260
马铃薯
(希森6)
Potato
(Xisen 6)		 y_tt_emergence 出苗期至营养生长期积温 Thermal time from end of juvenile to floral initiation (℃ d) 460
tt_earlytuber 块茎形成期至块茎膨大期积温 Thermal time from floral initiation to flowering (℃ d) 510
tt_senescing 块茎膨大期与淀粉积累期积温Thermal time from senescing to maturity (℃ d) 850
x_pp_emergence 苗期光周期 Photoperiod of seedling stage (h) 12
y_height 最大株高Photoperiod sensitivity (mm) 500
y_rue 辐射利用效率 Radiation use efficiency (g MJ-1) 1.2-2.5
x_stem_wt 茎干重 Stem weight per plant (g plant-1) 6.0
tt_vegetative 营养生长期结束积温 Thermal time for vegetative stage(℃ d) 20
tt_senesced 茎叶完全衰老积温 Thermal time for senesced (℃ d) 5.0
shoot_rate 随胚芽鞘长度增加的积温量 Thermal time increase with depth for coleoptile (℃ d mm-1) 0.75

表3

晋北地区18个站点的基础信息"

站点
Site		 所属市
City		 经度
Longitude (°)		 纬度
Latitude (°)		 海拔高度
Altitude (m)		 播种日期
Sowing date (month/day)
天镇Tianzhen 大同Datong 114.05 40.43 1014.7 04/28-05/18
广灵Guangling 大同Datong 114.27 39.75 977.8 04/26-05/16
灵丘Lingqiu 大同Datong 114.18 39.45 938.7 04/25-05/15
阳高Yanggao 大同Datong 113.77 40.37 1050.3 04/27-05/17
大同Datong 大同Datong 113.42 40.08 1052.6 04/27-05/17
怀仁Huairen 朔州Shuozhou 113.10 39.82 1044.6 04/22-05/12
浑源Hunyuan 大同Datong 113.67 39.72 1079.2 04/29-05/19
应县Yingxian 朔州Shuozhou 113.17 39.57 1000.7 04/24-05/14
繁峙Fanshi 忻州Xinzhou 113.27 39.17 933.9 04/24-05/14
右玉Youyu 朔州Shuozhou 112.45 40.00 1345.8 05/05-05/25
左云Zuoyun 大同Datong 112.70 40.00 1336.3 05/05-05/25
平鲁Pinglu 朔州Shuozhou 112.27 39.52 1409.4 05/03-05/23
神池Shenchi 忻州Xinzhou 112.20 39.10 1525.4 05/07-05/27
山阴Shanyin 朔州Shuozhou 112.82 39.50 1045.0 04/24-05/14
朔州Shuozhou 朔州Shuozhou 112.43 39.37 1114.8 04/25-05/15
代县Daixian 忻州Xinzhou 112.90 39.02 859.7 04/19-05/09
河曲Hequ 忻州Xinzhou 111.22 39.37 1036.0 04/18-05/08
偏关Pianguan 忻州Xinzhou 111.50 39.43 1051.7 04/24-05/14

表4

土壤类型及参数"

土壤类型及序号
Type order and subtype of Chinese
soil classification		 土壤深度
Soil depth
(cm)		 容重
Bulk density
(g mm-3)		 萎蔫系数
15 bar lower
(mm mm-1)		 田间持水量
Field capacity
(mm mm-1)		 饱和含水量
Field
saturation
(mm mm-1)
1 夹白干栗土(怀仁, 大同, 浑源)
Light castanozems (Huairen, Datong, Hunyuan)		 0-20 1.396 0.042 0.184 0.473
20-32 1.398 0.045 0.190 0.472
32-79 1.405 0.065 0.262 0.470
79-150 1.406 0.069 0.248 0.470
2 淡栗黄土(应县, 神池, 代县)
Light castano cinnamon (Yingxian, Shenchi, Daixian)		 0-20 1.423 0.041 0.182 0.463
20-65 1.422 0.046 0.179 0.463
65-104 1.433 0.054 0.207 0.459
104-150 1.430 0.045 0.199 0.461
3 浅钙积栗土(左云, 山阴)
Light castanozems (Zuoyun, Shanyin)		 0-16 1.405 0.091 0.294 0.470
16-62 1.400 0.099 0.293 0.472
62-104 1.406 0.104 0.275 0.469
104-150 1.440 0.054 0.180 0.456
4 少姜红栗黄土(平鲁, 繁峙, 河曲)
Castano cinnamon (Pinglu, Fanshi, Hequ)		 0-5 1.419 0.090 0.170 0.465
5-15 1.417 0.086 0.172 0.465
15-62 1.416 0.084 0.169 0.466
62-90 1.418 0.122 0.216 0.465
90-128 1.560 0.119 0.236 0.411
128-150 1.560 0.119 0.236 0.411
5 二合栗黄土(朔州, 天镇, 广灵, 灵丘, 偏关)
Castano cinnamon (Shuozhou, Tianzhen, Guangling, Lingqiu, Pianguan)		 0-23 1.428 0.104 0.211 0.461
23-50 1.418 0.126 0.240 0.465
50-90 1.410 0.130 0.252 0.468
90-150 1.411 0.128 0.251 0.467
6 浅钙积栗土(阳高)
Light castanozems (Yanggao)		 0-20 1.410 0.047 0.173 0.467
20-38 1.420 0.052 0.186 0.466
38-120 1.420 0.067 0.203 0.465
120-150 1.420 0.062 0.217 0.465

表5

各土壤类型的养分含量及pH"

土壤类型序号
Type order and subtype of
Chinese soil classification		 土壤有机质
Soil organic matter
(g kg-1)		 土壤有机碳
Soil organic carbon
(%)		 硝态氮
Nitrate nitrogen
(mg kg-1)		 铵态氮
Ammonium nitrogen
(mg kg-1)		 pH
1 夹白干栗土 Light castanozems 9.8 0.568 27.5 5.6 8.3
2 淡栗黄土 Light castano 4.5 0.261 13.5 4.7 8.3
3浅钙积栗土 Light castanozems 5.6 0.325 21.5 4.3 8.2
4 少姜红栗黄土 Castano cinnamon 9.4 0.545 30.0 12.0 8.7
5 二合栗黄土 Castano cinnamon 6.6 0.383 21.5 6.3 8.2
6浅钙积栗土 Light castanozems 8.4 0.487 28.5 9.7 8.4

表6

研究选取的20个全球气候模式"

GCM 开发机构
Institute ID		 国家
Country		 GCM 开发机构
Institute ID		 国家
Country
ACCESS1-0 ACCESS 澳大利亚 Australia HadGEM2-ES NIMR/KMA 韩国 R. O. Korea
bcc-csm1-1 BCC 中国 China Inmcm4 INM 俄罗斯 Russia
BNU-ESM GCESS 中国 China IPSL-CM5A-LR IPSL 法国 France
CanESM2 CCCMA 加拿大Canada IPSL-CM5A-MR IPSL 法国 France
CCSM4 NCAR 美国 USA MIROC5 MIROC 日本 Japan
CESM1-BGC NSF-DOENCAR 美国 USA MIROC-ESM MIROC 日本 Japan
CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 CSIRO-QCCCE 澳大利亚Australia MPI-ESM-LR MPI-M 德国 Germany
GFDL-ESM2G NOAA GFDL 美国 USA MPI-ESM-MR MPI-M 德国 Germany
GFDL-ESM2M NOAA GFDL 美国 USA MRI-CGCM3 MRI 日本 Japan
HadGEM2-CC NIMR/KMA 韩国 R. O. Korea NorESM1-M NCC 挪威 Norway

表7

3种作物产量、地上生物量实测值与模拟值之间的验证指标"

作物
Crop		 测定项目
Measured item		 测试指标Validation index
RMSE (kg hm-2) NRMSE (%) d
玉米Maize 籽粒产量Grain yield 221.52 2.96 0.9976
地上生物量Biomass 986.80 5.58 0.9658
马铃薯Potato 块茎产量Tuber yield 841.49 20.50 0.9517
地上生物量Biomass 259.46 11.49 0.9947
饲用燕麦Oats 地上生物量Biomass 427.64 3.32 0.9854

表8

BAS、MID与END期间生育期平均降水(mm)和平均温度(℃)"

站点
Site		 平均降水Mean precipitation (mm) 平均温度Mean temperature (℃)
BAS MID END BAS MID END
代县 Daixian 351.73 383.78 391.31 19.91 22.75 24.85
大同 Datong 305.99 339.87 344.52 19.22 22.09 24.22
繁峙 Fanshi 334.77 367.96 377.17 19.71 22.57 24.69
广灵 Guangling 323.36 357.00 369.67 18.84 21.73 23.83
河曲 Hequ 316.88 348.50 351.75 20.37 23.25 25.40
怀仁 Huairen 298.99 332.14 337.14 19.88 22.75 24.87
浑源 Hunyuan 337.44 372.35 382.15 18.42 21.33 23.46
灵丘 Lingqiu 359.90 397.85 410.97 19.27 22.15 24.26
偏关 Pianguan 335.59 372.37 373.75 20.06 22.95 25.08
平鲁 Pinglu 338.55 375.50 377.67 17.32 20.18 22.32
山阴 Shanyin 297.87 330.64 332.96 19.39 22.25 24.39
神池 Shenchi 378.77 418.52 425.89 16.28 19.15 21.28
朔州 Shuozhou 336.90 371.21 374.61 18.76 21.65 23.80
天镇 Tianzhen 323.85 358.48 371.96 18.69 21.60 23.70
阳高 Yanggao 320.46 355.04 366.23 18.72 21.63 23.74
应县 Yingxian 299.33 333.06 336.48 19.65 22.50 24.63
右玉 Youyu 337.96 375.74 376.99 16.19 19.05 21.21
左云 Zuoyun 336.16 373.83 376.42 17.52 20.40 22.55

表9

晋北地区各点饲用燕麦产量分布图"

站点
site		 M-O: 饲用燕麦产量
M-O: Forage oats yield (kg hm-2)		 P-O: 饲用燕麦产量
P-O: Forage oats yield (kg hm-2)		 O-O: 饲用燕麦产量
O-O: Forage oats yield (kg hm-2)
BAS MID END BAS MID END BAS MID END
代县Daixian 14,107 15,269 15,331 14741 16,229 16,516 15,620 16,582 16,680
大同Datong 12,927 14,249 14,419 13,946 15,633 16,185 15,749 17,003 17,245
繁峙Fanshi 14,303 15,769 12,180 15,798 17,421 17,964 17,005 18,034 18,498
广灵Guangling 13,411 14,837 14,876 14,988 16,997 17,567 16,790 18,117 18,504
河曲Hequ 12,485 13,353 13,486 13,348 14,630 15,124 14,144 14,964 15,545
怀仁Huairen 11,703 13,357 13,573 12,570 14,598 15,520 14,507 16,065 16,762
浑源Hunyuan 14,574 15,986 15,855 15,754 17,720 17,692 17,732 18,774 18,702
灵丘Lingqiou 15,070 16,387 16,551 16,999 18,505 18,770 17,828 19,059 19,254
偏关Pianguan 13,518 15,175 16,563 14,958 16,969 17,048 16,153 17,557 17,649
平鲁Pinglu 16,020 18,128 17,563 17,976 20,401 20,312 18,652 20,817 20,683
山阴Shanyin 14,031 15,458 15,577 15,150 16,925 17,114 16,626 17,538 17,615
神池Shenchi 16,733 19,482 18,842 17,243 20,225 19,632 17,677 20,273 19,728
朔州Shuozhou 14,649 15,709 15,294 15,351 17,435 17,292 16,758 18,169 17,960
天镇Tianzhen 13,689 14,912 15,175 14,587 16,565 17,282 16,143 17,537 17,961
阳高Yanggao 14,851 17,118 18,287 14,975 16,201 16,759 15,840 16,746 17,053
应县Yingxian 12,174 13,490 13,482 12,788 14,586 14,687 14,216 15,304 15,213
右玉Youyu 14,909 18,045 16,935 15,680 19,318 18,691 15,750 18,785 18,060
左云Zuoyun 17,004 18,527 18,166 17,773 19,709 19,326 18,036 19,921 19,456

图1

各站点不同轮作制度下饲用燕麦的产量差 缩写同表9。"

图2

各站点不同气候条件下饲用燕麦的产量差 缩写同表9。"

表10

各站点不同轮作制度和气候变化下饲用燕麦产量的变异系数(CV)和可持续性指数(SYI)"

站点
County		 时期
Period		 M-O: 饲用燕麦产量
M-O: Forage oats yield		 P-O: 饲用燕麦产量
P-O: Forage oats yield		 O-O: 饲用燕麦产量
O-O: Forage oats yield
CV SYI CV SYI CV SYI
代县Daixian BAS 0.16 0.62 0.15 0.67 0.19 0.57
MID 0.15 0.68 0.15 0.68 0.17 0.66
END 0.14 0.70 0.14 0.69 0.17 0.61
大同Datong BAS 0.24 0.52 0.18 0.63 0.25 0.48
MID 0.21 0.61 0.17 0.68 0.22 0.59
END 0.19 0.61 0.16 0.64 0.22 0.51
繁峙Fanshi BAS 0.20 0.59 0.17 0.65 0.21 0.60
MID 0.19 0.64 0.17 0.67 0.19 0.59
END 0.17 0.65 0.16 0.68 0.21 0.54
广灵Guangling BAS 0.23 0.55 0.21 0.62 0.23 0.56
MID 0.22 0.59 0.20 0.65 0.24 0.55
END 0.20 0.64 0.18 0.67 0.23 0.56
河曲Hequ BAS 0.23 0.55 0.25 0.55 0.24 0.51
MID 0.21 0.57 0.26 0.50 0.26 0.48
END 0.24 0.53 0.26 0.54 0.28 0.47
怀仁Huairen BAS 0.25 0.46 0.21 0.53 0.26 0.42
MID 0.22 0.50 0.19 0.55 0.23 0.49
END 0.19 0.56 0.18 0.61 0.22 0.48
浑源Hunyuan BAS 0.19 0.60 0.14 0.66 0.20 0.55
MID 0.15 0.68 0.15 0.70 0.17 0.63
END 0.16 0.67 0.14 0.69 0.17 0.63
灵丘Lingqiu BAS 0.19 0.63 0.14 0.67 0.21 0.57
MID 0.17 0.60 0.13 0.65 0.21 0.59
END 0.16 0.65 0.12 0.70 0.25 0.53
偏关Pianguan BAS 0.24 0.51 0.21 0.57 0.24 0.48
MID 0.22 0.53 0.20 0.57 0.24 0.48
END 0.22 0.52 0.20 0.56 0.25 0.53
平鲁Pinglu BAS 0.15 0.68 0.11 0.73 0.19 0.62
MID 0.14 0.71 0.12 0.73 0.20 0.63
END 0.13 0.71 0.12 0.74 0.21 0.55
山阴Shanyin BAS 0.20 0.59 0.14 0.69 0.20 0.55
MID 0.16 0.65 0.13 0.70 0.19 0.59
END 0.14 0.71 0.12 0.69 0.18 0.60
神池Shenchi BAS 0.13 0.72 0.12 0.74 0.16 0.62
MID 0.14 0.68 0.14 0.69 0.14 0.68
END 0.15 0.69 0.15 0.69 0.17 0.63
朔州Shuozhou BAS 0.20 0.61 0.16 0.69 0.22 0.56
MID 0.18 0.62 0.16 0.66 0.21 0.59
END 0.18 0.65 0.14 0.70 0.22 0.55
天镇Tianzhen BAS 0.27 0.48 0.24 0.54 0.28 0.46
MID 0.23 0.58 0.23 0.58 0.26 0.53
END 0.21 0.54 0.21 0.56 0.27 0.49
阳高Yanggao BAS 0.25 0.52 0.22 0.58 0.22 0.54
MID 0.24 0.58 0.20 0.62 0.21 0.55
END 0.20 0.62 0.18 0.65 0.22 0.54
应县Yingxian BAS 0.22 0.54 0.17 0.65 0.23 0.51
MID 0.18 0.64 0.16 0.67 0.21 0.57
END 0.17 0.64 0.15 0.62 0.18 0.58
右玉Youyu BAS 0.23 0.52 0.20 0.59 0.26 0.55
MID 0.18 0.63 0.20 0.61 0.24 0.57
END 0.17 0.63 0.21 0.59 0.24 0.58
左云Zuoyun BAS 0.12 0.74 0.12 0.70 0.19 0.61
MID 0.12 0.73 0.12 0.74 0.19 0.64
END 0.12 0.67 0.12 0.67 0.20 0.61
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