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作物学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (10): 2614-2624.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2024.32057

• 耕作栽培·生理生化 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对江西双季稻生长期和产量的影响

张方亮1(), 刘文英2, 田俊1, 汪建军2, 刘丹1, 杨军1, 李迎春1, 章毅之1,*()   

  1. 1江西省气象科学研究所, 江西南昌 330096
    2江西省农业气象中心, 江西南昌 330096
  • 收稿日期:2024-04-15 接受日期:2024-06-20 出版日期:2024-10-12 网络出版日期:2024-07-10
  • 通讯作者: *章毅之, E-mail: yizhi-zhang@qq.com
  • 作者简介:E-mail: zflqixiang@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFD2300203);国家自然科学基金项目(41965008);中国气象局“气候生态产品价值实现研究”青年创新团队项目(CMA2024QN15);江西省气象局面上项目(JX2022M10)

Simulating effects of climate change on growth season and yield of double cropping rice in Jiangxi province based on DSSAT model

ZHANG Fang-Liang1(), LIU Wen-Ying2, TIAN Jun1, WANG Jian-Jun2, LIU Dan1, YANG Jun1, LI Ying-Chun1, ZHANG Yi-Zhi1,*()   

  1. 1Meteorological Science Research Institute of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 330096, Jiangxi, China
    2Jiangxi Agricultural Meteorology Center, Nanchang 330096, Jiangxi, China
  • Received:2024-04-15 Accepted:2024-06-20 Published:2024-10-12 Published online:2024-07-10
  • Contact: *E-mail: yizhi-zhang@qq.com
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFD2300203);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41965008);China Meteorological Administration “Research on Value realization of climate ecological products” Youth Innovation Team Project(CMA2024QN15);Jiangxi Meteorological Bureau General Project(JX2022M10)

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摘要：

江西是中国双季稻的主要种植地区。气候变化严重影响了双季稻生产。基于江西省1981—2022年逐日气象资料和双季稻作物资料, 对DSSAT模型进行调参验证; 利用验证后的DSSAT模型, 分析江西省双季稻生长期和产量空间分布和时间变化趋势; 采用t检验方法, 明确气候变化对江西早稻和晚稻的影响差异。结果表明: (1) 江西早稻(晚稻)播种期至开花期天数、播种期至成熟期天数和产量模拟值与观测值的归一化均方根误差分别为1.87% (1.86%)、2.05% (2.36%)和6.05% (7.30%), D指标分别为0.97 (0.98)、0.96 (0.96)和0.95 (0.94); (2) 固定播期和品种条件下, 1981— 2022年江西早稻和晚稻生长期均呈显著缩短趋势, 平均每10年分别减少2.22 d和1.61 d; 研究期间江西早稻和晚稻潜在产量均呈显著下降趋势, 平均每10年分别减少181.30 kg hm-2和276.16 kg hm-2; (3) t检验表明, 江西早稻生长期气候倾向率极显著地小于晚稻, 而江西早稻潜在产量气候倾向率极显著地大于晚稻。DSSAT模型可较好的模拟江西双季稻生长发育和产量。气候变化对江西早稻生长期和晚稻潜在产量影响更加明显。本研究为江西双季稻作物模型研究、产量预报和气候变化评估提供了科学依据。

关键词: DSSAT, 早稻, 晚稻, 生长期, 水稻潜在产量

Abstract:

Jiangxi province is a key region for double cropping rice cultivation in China. Climate change has significantly impacted double cropping rice production in this area. This study validates the DSSAT model using daily meteorological data and crop data for double cropping rice in Jiangxi Province from 1981 to 2022. The validated DSSAT model is then used to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal variation trends of the growth season and yield of double cropping rice in Jiangxi province. Additionally, the t-test method is employed to identify differences in the effects of climate change on early rice and late rice in the province. The results are as follows: (1) The normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) between simulated and observed values for the sowing-to-flowering duration, sowing-to-maturity duration, and yield of early rice (late rice) in Jiangxi province are 1.87% (1.86%), 2.05% (2.36%), and 6.05% (7.30%), respectively. The D-index for these parameters are 0.97 (0.98), 0.96 (0.96), and 0.95 (0.94), respectively. (2) With fixed sowing dates and varieties, the growth seasons for early rice and late rice in Jiangxi province significantly shortened from 1981 to 2022, with an average decrease of 2.22 and 1.61 days per decade, respectively. The potential yields of early rice and late rice also significantly decreased over the same period, with an average reduction of 181.30 kg hm-2 and 276.16 kg hm-2 per decade, respectively. (3) The t-test results indicate that the climate trend for the growth season of early rice in Jiangxi Province is significantly lower than that of late rice. Conversely, the climate trend for the potential yield of early rice is significantly higher than that of late rice. The DSSAT model effectively simulates the growth and yield of double cropping rice in Jiangxi province. The findings highlight that climate change has more pronounced effects on the growth season of early rice and the potential yield of late rice in Jiangxi province. This study provides a scientific basis for crop model research, yield prediction, and climate change assessment for double cropping rice in Jiangxi province.

Key words: DSSAT, early rice, late rice, growth season, rice potential yield

图1

气象站和水稻农业气象观测站空间分布 该图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为赣S (2023) 24号的标准地图制作, 底图边界无修改。"

表1

DSSAT模型水稻品种参数[25]"

参数Parameter 描述Description 范围Range 单位Unit
P1 完成基本营养期需要的≥9℃积温
Accumulated temperature ≥9℃ required for the basic vegetative period		 150-800 ℃ d
P2O 发育最快时的临界光周期
Critical photoperiod at which the development occurs at a maximum rate		 11-13 h
P2R 日长每大于临界光周期1 h导致穗粒发育延迟的程度
Panicle initiation development is delayed for each hour increase in photoperiod above P2O		 5-300 ℃ d
P5 从籽粒开始灌浆到成熟时需要的≥9℃积温
Accumulated temperature ≥9℃ required from beginning of grain filling to maturity		 150-850 ℃ d
PHINT 相邻叶尖出现间隔所需的积温
Accumulated temperature required for each leaf-tip to appear		 55-90 ℃ d
G1 潜在的小穗系数
Potential spikelet number coefficient		 50-75 —
G2 潜在的单粒重
Potential single grain weight		 0.015-0.030 g
G3 相对分蘖系数
Relative tillering coefficient		 0.7-1.3 —
THOT 小穗不育的临界高温
Critical high temperature of spikelet sterility		 25-34 ℃
TCLDP 穗粒延迟发育的临界低温
Critical low temperature for delayed panicle initiation development		 12-18 ℃
TCLDF 小穗不育的临界低温
Critical low temperature of spikelet sterility		 10-20 ℃

表2

农业气象观测站早稻和晚稻的品种和年份"

站点
Station		 早稻 Early rice 晚稻 Late rice
品种 Variety 年份 Year 品种 Variety 年份 Year
广丰Guangfeng 浙稻Zhedao 2002-2004, 2010 江优10号Jiangyou 10 1991-1992
湖口Hukou 早稻7307 Zaodao 7307 1991-1995 籼优64 Xianyou 64 1991, 1993-1996, 1998
吉安Ji’an — — 金优463 Jinyou 463 2010-2012
莲花Lianhua 浙福504 Zhefu 504 1998-1999 丰优丝苗Fengyousimiao 2007-2010
南昌Nanchang 禾盛10号Hesheng 10 2006, 2008-2009 926 2007, 2009, 2011-2012
宁都Ningdu 金优402 Jinyou 402 2000, 2005, 2008 — —
南丰Nanfeng — — 4015 1992-2004
南康Nankang — — 754 1983-1984, 1986-1987
瑞昌Ruichang 早稻7307 Zaodao 7307 1986-1990, 1994-1997 威优63 Weiyou 63 1990-1991
泰和Taihe 果稻705 Guodao 705 1983, 1985 汕259 Shan 259 1984-1985
婺源Wuyuan 金优213 Jinyou 213 2008-2009 754 1984-1985
宜丰Yifeng — — 岳优9113 Yueyou 9113 2009-2013
余干Yugan — — 汕优64 Shanyou 64 1993-2001
樟树Zhangshu — — 优I402 You I402 2006-2008

图2

江西早稻生育期和产量模拟值与观测值比较"

表3

江西早稻DSSAT模型品种参数"

站点Station P1 P2R P5 P2O G1 G2 G3 THOT
广丰Guangfeng 360 15 290 11.6 75 0.03 0.8 28
湖口Hukou 270 65 185 13.0 62 0.03 0.8 28
莲花Lianhua 150 75 270 11.3 75 0.03 0.9 28
南昌Nanchang 150 75 245 11.1 75 0.03 0.8 28
宁都Ningdu 150 95 355 11.3 72 0.03 0.7 30
瑞昌Ruichang 350 5 315 12.8 73 0.03 1.0 28
泰和Taihe 180 215 280 13.0 74 0.03 0.7 28
婺源Wuyuan 150 85 335 11.1 51 0.03 0.7 32

图3

江西晚稻生育期和产量模拟值与观测值比较"

表4

江西晚稻DSSAT模型品种参数"

站点Station P1 P2R P5 P2O G1 G2 G3 THOT
广丰Guangfeng 710 15 345 12.5 73 0.03 0.7 28
湖口Hukou 150 255 220 12.6 75 0.03 1.0 28
吉安Ji’an 150 95 520 11.2 71 0.03 0.7 28
莲花Lianhua 150 165 340 11.0 75 0.03 1.0 28
南昌Nanchang 420 75 360 11.0 75 0.03 0.7 28
南丰Nanfeng 470 295 340 13.0 68 0.03 1.0 28
南康Nankang 150 295 340 12.1 50 0.03 1.3 28
瑞昌Ruichang 150 225 235 11.4 75 0.03 0.9 28
泰和Taihe 150 205 345 11.1 75 0.03 0.7 28
婺源Wuyuan 160 265 260 11.8 51 0.03 1.3 28
宜丰Yifeng 250 298 335 13.0 74 0.03 0.7 28
余干Yugan 230 285 455 12.9 75 0.03 1.3 28
樟树Zhangshu 160 195 470 11.9 75 0.03 0.7 28

图4

1981-2022年江西早稻和晚稻模拟生长期及其气候倾向率的空间分布 该图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为赣S (2023) 24号的标准地图制作, 底图边界无修改。a1、a2、b1和b2分别表示早稻生长期、早稻生长期气候倾向率、晚稻生长期和晚稻生长期气候倾向率。"

图5

1981-2022年江西早稻和晚稻模拟潜在产量及其气候倾向率的空间分布 该图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为赣S (2023) 24号的标准地图制作, 底图边界无修改。a1、a2、b1和b2分别表示早稻潜在产量、早稻潜在产量气候倾向率、晚稻潜在产量和晚稻潜在产量气候倾向率。"

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