关键词: 小麦, 气候变化, 影响

Abstract:

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is the second most important grain crop in China. Understanding the relationship between climate change and wheat yields will not only help to optimize agricultural practices, but also benefit to adapt climate change. The regional climate mode PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Study) and CERES-wheat model were used to simulate wheat yield change under future climate change scenarios. The preliminary results indicated that both the yields of rain-fed and irrigated wheat would be decreased in 2070s by about 20% with climate change. The yields of rain-fed wheat loss more than irrigated wheat, and spring wheat or spring-habit winter wheat would be decreased more than winter wheat and winter-habit wheat with climate change in 2070s. The areas that yield decreased remarkable are located in Northeast China where plants with spring wheat and Southwest China with winter wheat.

Key words: Wheat, Climate change, Impacts