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Acta Agronomica Sinica ›› 2024, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (11): 2860-2869.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2024.44005

• TILLAGE & CULTIVATION·PHYSIOLOGY & BIOCHEMISTRY • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Spatial distribution of cultivation suitable area for Panax notoginseng and its response to climate change

WANG Lu1(), ZHAO Jiong-Chao1, WANG Yi-Xuan1, MI Yan-Hua2, ZHANG Ning-Yi1, ZHAO Ming-Yu1, CHU Qing-Quan1,*()   

  1. 1College of Agronomy, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    2Institute of Agricultural Quality Standard & Testing Technique, Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Kunming 650205, Yunnan, China
  • Received:2024-01-07 Accepted:2024-06-20 Online:2024-11-12 Published:2024-07-17
  • Contact: *E-mail: cauchu@cau.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    Major Science and Technology Projects in Yunnan Province(202202AE090029);College Students Innovation and Training Project of China Agricultural University(X2022100190356)

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Abstract:

Understanding the dynamic spatiotemporal changes in suitable cultivation areas for Panax notoginseng in Yunnan province amid climate change is crucial for guiding its introduction, cultivation, and large-scale industrial development. Utilizing 131 geographical distribution data points of Panax notoginseng in Yunnan province and 15 environmental variables, we employed the MaxEnt model to analyze the primary factors influencing its distribution and to delineate the suitable cultivation areas and their variations from 1961 to 2020. Our analysis identified key factors, including mean daily temperature range (<10.0℃), the number of days with maximum temperature ≥ 33℃ (<5 days), aspect (north-facing slopes), annual accumulation temperature ≥ 10℃ (4708.0-5331.9 ℃ d), annual sunshine duration (1636.7-1963.3 h), and seasonal variation in precipitation (92%-96%). Suitable cultivation areas for Panax notoginseng were primarily concentrated in southeastern Yunnan Province, encompassing Wenshan, Honghe, Kunming, Yuxi, and Qujing, comprising approximately 4.8% of the entire province. Our findings indicate that climate change from 1961 to 2020 has led to an 18.1% expansion in suitable areas for Panax notoginseng cultivation across Yunnan province. Moreover, over the past six decades, there has been a noticeable northward expansion of the optimal boundary for Panax notoginseng, accompanied by an overall improvement in its suitability amid climate fluctuations. This study provides a theoretical framework and technical support for devising a rational industrial layoutfor Panax notoginseng in Yunnan province, thereby mitigating the potential risks posed by climate change to its production and facilitating the effective management and utilization of agricultural land resources.

Key words: Panax notoginseng, MaxEnt model, climate change, dominant factors, cultivation suitability

Fig. 1

Spatial distribution of meteorological stations and Panax notoginseng in Yunnan province This map is based on the standard map downloaded from the National Platform for Common Geospatial Information Services with the approval number GS (2024) 0650. The boundary of the base map is not modified."

Table 1

Environmental variables that affected Panax notoginseng distribution and its contribution"

分类
Type		 名称
Description		 贡献率
Contribution		 参考文献
References
气候
Climate factor		 平均气温日较差Mean of daily temperature range (℃) 41.8 [25]
最高气温≥33℃天数Number of days with maximum temperature ≥33℃ (d) 11.4 [23]
年日照时数Annual sunshine duration (h) 6.1 [24]
降水季节性差异Seasonal differences in precipitation (%) 5.8 [25]
4-6月累积降水量Accumulation precipitation from April to June (mm) 4.9 [24]
≥10℃年积温 ≥10℃ annual accumulation temperature (℃ d) 9.2 [24]
土壤
Soil factor		 酸碱度pH 0.1 [30⇓-32]
含沙量Percentage sand (%) 1.2
含黏量Percentage clay (%) 1.8
有机碳含量Percentage of organic carbon (%) 1.0
阳离子交换量Cation exchange capacity (cmol kg-1) 0.2
容重Bulk density (kg m-3) 0.3
地形
Topographic
factor		 海拔Elevation (m) 5.5 [25]
坡向Aspect 10.5
坡度Slope (°) 0.2

Fig. 2

Receiver operating characteristic curve of modeling the cultivation suitability of Panax notoginseng based on Maxent"

Fig. 3

Jackknife test of environmental variables that affected Panax notoginseng distribution pH: Topsoil pH; BD: bulk density; Dem: elevation; Aspect: aspect; Slope: slope; Sand: percentage sand; Clay: percentage clay; Y_ST: annual sunshine duration; SOC: percentage of organic carbon; P_M4_6: accumulation precipitation from April to June; CEC: cation exchange capacity; ACT10: ≥10℃ annual accumulation temperature; PMCV: seasonal differences in precipitation; DTD: the Mean of daily temperature range; Day33: the number of days with maximum temperature ≥33℃."

Table 2

Thresholds of environmental factor for different suitability of Panax notoginseng"

分类
Classification		 平均气温日较差
Mean of daily temperature range
(℃)		 最高气温≥33℃天数
Number of days with maximum temperature ≥33℃ (d)		 坡向
Aspect
(°)		 ≥10℃年积温
≥10℃ annual
accumulation temperature
(℃ d)		 年日照时数
Annual
sunshine
duration (h)		 降水季节性差异
Seasonal differences
in precipitation
(%)
最适宜 Optimum <10.0 <5.8 <3.4 4708.0-5331.9 1636.7-1963.3 92-96
适宜Suitable <10.3 5.8-6.1 <5.0 4689.1-6239.5 1433.3-2116.7 87-98
次适宜Less suitable <10.9 6.1-36.3 <10.0 4235.3-6258.4 <2156.7 <100
不适宜 Unsuitable >10.9 >36.3 >10.0 <4235.3, >6258.4 >2156.7

Fig. 4

Spatial and temporal distribution of cultivation suitable areas for Panax notoginseng from 1961 to 2020 This map is based on the standard map downloaded from the National Platform for Common Geospatial Information Services with the approval number GS (2024) 0650. The boundary of the base map is not modified. a: 1961-1970; b: 1971-1980; c: 1981-1990; d: 1991-2000; e: 2001-2010; f: 2011-2020."

Fig. 5

Response of the cultivation suitability of Panax notoginseng to climate change in Yunnan province This map is based on the standard map downloaded from the National Platform for Common Geospatial Information Services with the approval number GS (2024) 0650. The boundary of the base map is not modified. a: 1961-1990; b: 1991-2020; c: 1961-2020."

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