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Acta Agronomica Sinica ›› 2019, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (9): 1407-1415.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2019.81074

• TILLAGE & CULTIVATION· PHYSIOLOGY & BIOCHEMISTRY • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Spatial and temporal patterns of drought risk for winter wheat grown in Hebei province in past 60 years

ZHANG Li,CHEN Fu,LEI Yong-Deng()   

  1. College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University/Key Laboratory of Farming System, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100193, China
  • Received:2018-12-31 Accepted:2019-04-15 Online:2019-09-12 Published:2019-04-24
  • Contact: Yong-Deng LEI E-mail:leiyd@cau.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31801315);the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFD0300201);the Major Projects of the National Social Science Foundation of China(18ZDA074);the Chinese Universities Scientific Fund(2019TC015)


Drought is a major natural disaster that causes crop yield losses. Study on the cause mechanism and spatio-temporal patterns of drought is of great significance for regional food security. Based on long-term climate data during 1958-2016, we analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of drought risk of winter wheat in Hebei province in the past 60 years by calculating Crop Water Deficit Index (CWDI). The water requirement and drought risk during the growth period of winter wheat increased at first, then decreased and then increased. Drought risk was the highest in jointing-heading stage, followed by heading-maturity stage. Winter wheat suffered severe drought during the whole growing periods, particularly in the middle and late stages of yield formation. The Hei-long-gang region in southeastern Hebei faced an extreme high drought risk. Drought risk of winter wheat was affected by various factors such as precipitation, temperature, humidity. The most important impact factor was precipitation, and temperature was the key factor affecting the CWDI of winter wheat in the later stage. With climate changed in recent decades, the temperature during crop growth season showed a clear upward trend, increasing the water consumption of winter wheat. The results of this study reveal the spatio-temporal patterns of drought risk of winter wheat, identify high drought risk areas and key growth stages, and provide a reference for regional water irrigation management and drought disaster mitigation in a changing climate.

Key words: winter wheat, drought risk, climate change, spatio-temporal patterns, Hebei province

Table 1

Kc coefficient of different growth stages of winter wheat in Hebei"

上旬Early-month 中旬Middle-month 下旬
十月 October 0.85 0.85 0.85
十一月 November 0.92 0.92 0.92
十二月 December 0.54 0.54 0.54
一月 January 0.33 0.33 0.33
二月 February 0.24 0.24 0.24
三月 March 0.42 0.42 0.42
四月 April 1.14 1.14 1.14
五月 May 1.42 1.42 1.42
六月 June 0.73

Fig. 1

Water demand, effective rainfall and water deficit index (CWDI) of winter wheat in Hebei province"

Fig. 2

Interannual changes of CWDI in different growth stages of winter wheat"

Fig. 3

Different grades of drought frequency changed with time"

Fig. 4

Spatial patterns of heavy drought and severe drought in different growth stages of winter wheat"

Table 2

Climate tendency rate of different meteorological factors"

Sun hour
Relative humidity
Wind speed
播种-返青 Sowing-greening -0.54 -0.09* -0.01 0.29*** -0.21*** -0.17 -0.11***
返青-拔节 Greening-jointing 0.73 0.15 0.00 0.47*** -0.07 -1.39** -0.13***
拔节-抽穗 Jointing-heading -0.25 -0.41 0.09 0.21 -0.07 -0.14 -0.15***
抽穗-成熟 Heading-maturity -1.28* -1.04** 1.04** 0.18** -0.22*** 0.30 -0.14***

Table 3

Sensitivity coefficient of different meteorological factors to water deficit index"

Sun hour
Relative humidity
Wind speed
播种-返青 Sowing-greening 0.44 0.45 -5.27 2.67 -7.48
返青-拔节 Greening-jointing 0.64 0.54 -1.31 0.77 -3.07
拔节-抽穗 Jointing-heading 1.13 0.57 -0.95 0.56 -2.50
抽穗-成熟 Heading-maturity 3.72 2.04 -2.23 1.10 -6.64
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