气候变化对中国水稻生产的影响研究进展

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2019.82044

Abstract

Abstract:

Rice production system is one of the most sensitive agricultural ecosystems in response to climate change. Here, we reviewed the effects of current and future climate change on rice production in China. Over the past few decades, the thermal resources during rice growing seasons showed an increasing trend, while solar radiation resources showed a decreasing trend and the precipitation’s heterogeneity increased. The frequencies of high temperature stress, heavy precipitation, drought and flood increased, which may lower down the effectiveness of hydrothermal resources. Climate change has led to a significant northward shift of potential planting boundaries for single and double rice production systems, resulted in a negative impact on the length of growth period for single rice, early rice and late rice. The researches based on statistical models and process-based crop models showed that climate change hampered rice production of China. Most reports indicated a reducing trend of yield caused by climate change for single rice, early rice and late rice, but there were still some differences in results from different methods and rice cropping regions. The trends of prolonging growth period and increasing yield are a reflection of the capability of rice production system in China to adapt to climate change, through regulating planting regionalization and improving variety and culture technics. The impact assessment with different climate scenarios showed that the projected growth period of rice would shorten and projected yield would decrease in future. That means climate change will seriously challenge the rice production and food security in China. For further study, deeper understanding of abiotic stress physiology and its incorporation into ecophysiological models, reducing the uncertainty and extending the systematicness of impact assessment are the important research areas that require much attention.

Key words: global warming, northern boundary, rice planting system, growth stage, grain yield

Xiao-Xia LING,Zuo-Lin ZHANG,Jing-Qiu ZHAI,Shu-Chun YE,Jian-Liang HUANG. A review for impacts of climate change on rice production in China[J].Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2019, 45(3): 323-334.

Figures/Tables 2

Table 1

Impact of climate change on rice grain yield in China"

稻作类型 Rice system	研究区域 Region	研究时段 Period	变化趋势Change trend		评估方法 Method	参考文献 Reference
稻作类型 Rice system	研究区域 Region	研究时段 Period	统计模型^a Statistical model^a (t hm^-210 yr^-1)	作物模型^b Crop model^b (t hm^-210 yr^-1)	评估方法 Method	参考文献 Reference
单季稻 Single rice	全国4个站点 Four stations of China	1981-2009	0.85	-0.45	RiceGrow	[36]
单季稻 Single rice	东北 Northeast China	1980-2010	1.07	-0.01	ORYZA2000	[5]
单季稻 Single rice	华北 North China	1980-2010	0.58	-0.31	ORYZA2000	[5]
早稻 Early rice	3个双季稻试验站点 Three stations of double rice experiment	1981-2009	0.37	-0.09	RiceGrow	[37]
晚稻 Late rice	3个双季稻试验站点 Three stations of double rice experiment	1981-2009	0.53	-0.10	RiceGrow	[37]
单、双季稻 Single and double rice	华东 Eastern China	1980-2010	0.61	-0.56	ORYZA2000	[5]
单、双季稻 Single and double rice	华中 Central China	1980-2010	0.63	-0.27	ORYZA2000	[5]
单、双季稻 Single and double rice	西南 Southwest China	1980-2010	0.86	-0.26	ORYZA2000	[5]
双季稻 Double rice	华南 Southern China	1980-2010	0.75	-0.17	ORYZA2000	[5]
—	平均 Average	1980-2010	0.69	-0.25	—	—
水稻 Rice	全国 China	1961-2010	—	-11.5%	CERES-Rice	[11]
水稻 Rice	全国 China	1961-2010	—	-12.4% (-4.2%)	CERES-Rice	[54]
—	平均 Average	1961-2010	—	-12.0%	—	—
水稻 Rice	全国 China	1981-2010	—	(2%)	EPIC, DSSAT	[45]
水稻 Rice	全国 China	1980-2009	—	(4.4%)	Agro-C	[44]
单季稻 Single rice	全国 China	1980-2009	—	(3.4%)	Agro-C	[44]
早稻 Early rice	双季稻区 Double rice region	1980-2009	—	(4.8%)	Agro-C	[44]
晚稻 Late rice	双季稻区 Double rice region	1980-2009	—	(7.8%)	Agro-C	[44]
单季稻 Single rice	东北 Northeast China	1981-2009	1.01% to 3.29%	—	Panel model	[14]
单季稻 Single rice	长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River	1981-2009	-9.68% to-7.14%	—	Panel model	[14]
早稻 Early rice	长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River	1981-2009	-0.59% to 2.40%	—	Panel model	[14]
晚稻 Late rice	长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River	1981-2009	8.38% to 9.56%	—	Panel model	[14]
水稻 Rice	南方稻区 Southern China	温度升高1℃ Elevated temperature 1℃	-3.48% to -2.52%	—	经济-气候模型 Economy-Climate model	[103]
双季稻 Double rice	南方稻区 Southern China	1980-2008	-0.17% yr^-1	—	Statistical model	[94]
稻作类型 Rice system	研究区域 Region	研究时段 Period	变化趋势Change trend		评估方法 Method	参考文献 Reference
稻作类型 Rice system	研究区域 Region	研究时段 Period	统计模型^a Statistical model^a (t hm^-210 yr^-1)	作物模型^b Crop model^b (t hm^-210 yr^-1)	评估方法 Method	参考文献 Reference
单季稻 Single rice	东北 Northeast China	1980-2008	0.59% yr^-1	—	Statistical model	[94]
单季稻 Single rice	云贵高原 Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau	1980-2008	0.34% yr^-1	—	Statistical model	[94]
单季稻 Single rice	四川盆地 Sichuan Basin	1980-2008	-0.29% yr^-1	—	Statistical model	[94]

Table 1

Table 2

Impact of future climate change on rice grain yield"

稻作类型 Rice system	研究区域 Region	研究时段 Period	基准时段 Baseline	气候情景^a Climate scenario^a	气候模式^b Climate model^b	作物模型 Crop model	变化趋势^c Change trend^c				文献来源 Reference
稻作类型 Rice system	研究区域 Region	研究时段 Period	基准时段 Baseline	气候情景^a Climate scenario^a	气候模式^b Climate model^b	作物模型 Crop model	气候变化 Climate change (%)	CO₂效应 CO₂ effect (%)	适应策略 Adaptation (%)	CO₂效应+适应策略 CO₂ effect + Adaptation (%)	文献来源 Reference
单季稻 Single rice	中国东部 Eastern China	2020s, 2050s, 2080s	1961-1990	A1FI, B1	5 GCMs	MCWLA-Rice	-15.8 (-29.4 to -3.7)	8.4 (0.7 to 13.2)	—	—	[92]
单、双季稻 Single and double rice	长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River	2021-2050	1961-1990	A2, B2	PRECIS RCM	ORYZA2000	-15.1	-5.5	—	—	[86]
早稻、单季稻 Early and single rice	南方稻区 Southern China	2071-2090	1961-1990	B2	PRECIS RCM	CERES-Rice	-3.8 (-7.0 to -0.25)	8.6 (5.0 to 20.0)	—	—	[87]
单、双季稻 Single and double rice	全国6个站点 Six stations of China	2001-2100	1961-1990	ET1℃,2℃,3℃	5 GCMs	CERES-Rice	-20.4 (-40.2 to -6.1)	-4.8 (-19.3 to 0.18)	—	—	[83]
单、双季稻 Single and double rice	全国 China	2020s, 2050s, 2080s	1961-1990	A2, B2	PRECIS RCM	CERES-Rice	-10.8 (-26.2 to 6.3)	3.5 (-5.6 to 15.8)	—	—	[82]
早稻、晚稻 Early and late rice	双季稻区 Double rice region	—	1961-1990	A(ET1.7℃)	DKRZ OPYC(LSG)	双季稻生长动力模拟模型 Dynamic growth simulation model for double-rice	-15.2 (-19.0 to -11.2)	—	8.7 (-7.0 to 23.1)	—	[104]
水稻 Rice	全国 China	2020s, 2030s, 2040s, 2050s	2009	A2, B2	PRECIS RCM	CERES-Rice	—	10.5 (6.0-18.0)	—	15.8 (11.0 to 21.0)	[105]
单、双季稻 Single and double rice	全国 China	2011-2050	2000-2009	A2, B2	PRECIS RCM	Agro-C	-3.3	20.9	3.2	28.6	[106]
单、双季稻 Single and double rice	全国 China	2030s, 2050s, 2070s	2000s	RCP4.5	17 GCMs	CERES-Rice	—	-0.9 (-11.0 to 11.0)	4.9 (1.0 to 11.0)	—	[78]
单、双季稻 Single and double rice	全国 China	2106-2115	2006-2015	ET1.5℃, 2.0℃	4 GCMs	MCWLA-Rice	-0.9 (-0.7, 2.4)	6.8 (4.1, 9.4)	—	—	[84]
—	平均 Average	—	—	—	—	—	-10.7	5.3	5.6	22.2	—
水稻 Rice	全球 World	2070-2100	1981-2010	RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5	11-22 ESMs	7 Global grid-based models	-3.3, -5.5, -6.8, -10.8	—	—	—	[85]

Table 2

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