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Acta Agronomica Sinica ›› 2019, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (3): 323-334.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2019.82044

• REVIEW •     Next Articles

A review for impacts of climate change on rice production in China

Xiao-Xia LING1,Zuo-Lin ZHANG1,Jing-Qiu ZHAI2,Shu-Chun YE3,Jian-Liang HUANG1,*()   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, Ministry of Agriculture / College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, Hubei, China
    2 31010 of PLA Troops, Beijing 100081, China
    3 Meteorological Bureau of Yunfu City, Yunfu 527300, Guangdong, China
  • Received:2018-08-19 Accepted:2018-12-25 Online:2019-03-12 Published:2019-01-07
  • Contact: Jian-Liang HUANG E-mail:jhuang@mail.hzau.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFD0300210);This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFD0300101)


Rice production system is one of the most sensitive agricultural ecosystems in response to climate change. Here, we reviewed the effects of current and future climate change on rice production in China. Over the past few decades, the thermal resources during rice growing seasons showed an increasing trend, while solar radiation resources showed a decreasing trend and the precipitation’s heterogeneity increased. The frequencies of high temperature stress, heavy precipitation, drought and flood increased, which may lower down the effectiveness of hydrothermal resources. Climate change has led to a significant northward shift of potential planting boundaries for single and double rice production systems, resulted in a negative impact on the length of growth period for single rice, early rice and late rice. The researches based on statistical models and process-based crop models showed that climate change hampered rice production of China. Most reports indicated a reducing trend of yield caused by climate change for single rice, early rice and late rice, but there were still some differences in results from different methods and rice cropping regions. The trends of prolonging growth period and increasing yield are a reflection of the capability of rice production system in China to adapt to climate change, through regulating planting regionalization and improving variety and culture technics. The impact assessment with different climate scenarios showed that the projected growth period of rice would shorten and projected yield would decrease in future. That means climate change will seriously challenge the rice production and food security in China. For further study, deeper understanding of abiotic stress physiology and its incorporation into ecophysiological models, reducing the uncertainty and extending the systematicness of impact assessment are the important research areas that require much attention.

Key words: global warming, northern boundary, rice planting system, growth stage, grain yield

Table 1

Impact of climate change on rice grain yield in China"

Rice system
变化趋势Change trend 评估方法
Statistical modela
(t hm-210 yr-1)
Crop modelb
(t hm-210 yr-1)
单季稻 Single rice 全国4个站点
Four stations of China
1981-2009 0.85 -0.45 RiceGrow [36]
单季稻 Single rice 东北 Northeast China 1980-2010 1.07 -0.01 ORYZA2000 [5]
单季稻 Single rice 华北 North China 1980-2010 0.58 -0.31 ORYZA2000 [5]
早稻 Early rice 3个双季稻试验站点
Three stations of double rice experiment
1981-2009 0.37 -0.09 RiceGrow [37]
晚稻 Late rice 3个双季稻试验站点
Three stations of double rice experiment
1981-2009 0.53 -0.10 RiceGrow [37]
Single and double rice
Eastern China
1980-2010 0.61 -0.56 ORYZA2000 [5]
Single and double rice
Central China
1980-2010 0.63 -0.27 ORYZA2000 [5]
Single and double rice
Southwest China
1980-2010 0.86 -0.26 ORYZA2000 [5]
双季稻 Double rice 华南 Southern China 1980-2010 0.75 -0.17 ORYZA2000 [5]
平均 Average 1980-2010 0.69 -0.25
水稻 Rice 全国 China 1961-2010 -11.5% CERES-Rice [11]
水稻 Rice 全国 China 1961-2010 -12.4% (-4.2%) CERES-Rice [54]
平均 Average 1961-2010 -12.0%
水稻 Rice 全国 China 1981-2010 (2%) EPIC, DSSAT [45]
水稻 Rice 全国 China 1980-2009 (4.4%) Agro-C [44]
单季稻 Single rice 全国 China 1980-2009 (3.4%) Agro-C [44]
早稻 Early rice 双季稻区 Double rice region 1980-2009 (4.8%) Agro-C [44]
晚稻 Late rice 双季稻区 Double rice region 1980-2009 (7.8%) Agro-C [44]
单季稻 Single rice 东北 Northeast China 1981-2009 1.01% to 3.29% Panel model [14]
单季稻 Single rice 长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River 1981-2009 -9.68% to-7.14% Panel model [14]
早稻 Early rice 长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River 1981-2009 -0.59% to 2.40% Panel model [14]
晚稻 Late rice 长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River 1981-2009 8.38% to 9.56% Panel model [14]
水稻 Rice 南方稻区
Southern China
Elevated temperature 1℃
-3.48% to -2.52% 经济-气候模型
Economy-Climate model
双季稻 Double rice 南方稻区 Southern China 1980-2008 -0.17% yr-1 Statistical model [94]
Rice system
变化趋势Change trend 评估方法
Statistical modela
(t hm-210 yr-1)
Crop modelb
(t hm-210 yr-1)
单季稻 Single rice 东北 Northeast China 1980-2008 0.59% yr-1 Statistical model [94]
单季稻 Single rice 云贵高原
Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau
1980-2008 0.34% yr-1 Statistical model [94]
单季稻 Single rice 四川盆地 Sichuan Basin 1980-2008 -0.29% yr-1 Statistical model [94]

Table 2

Impact of future climate change on rice grain yield"

Rice system
Climate scenarioa
Climate modelb
Crop model
变化趋势c Change trendc 文献来源
Climate change (%)
CO2 effect (%)
Adaptation (%)
CO2 effect + Adaptation (%)
Single rice
Eastern China
2020s, 2050s, 2080s 1961-1990 A1FI, B1 5 GCMs MCWLA-Rice -15.8
(-29.4 to -3.7)
(0.7 to 13.2)
Single and double rice
Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River
2021-2050 1961-1990 A2, B2 PRECIS RCM ORYZA2000 -15.1 -5.5 [86]
Early and single rice
Southern China
2071-2090 1961-1990 B2 PRECIS RCM CERES-Rice -3.8
(-7.0 to -0.25)
(5.0 to 20.0)
Single and double rice
Six stations of China
2001-2100 1961-1990 ET1℃,2℃,3℃ 5 GCMs CERES-Rice -20.4
(-40.2 to -6.1)
(-19.3 to 0.18)
Single and double rice
2020s, 2050s, 2080s 1961-1990 A2, B2 PRECIS RCM CERES-Rice -10.8
(-26.2 to 6.3)
(-5.6 to 15.8)
Early and late rice
Double rice region
1961-1990 A(ET1.7℃) DKRZ OPYC(LSG) 双季稻生长动力模拟模型
Dynamic growth simulation model for double-rice
(-19.0 to -11.2)
(-7.0 to 23.1)
2020s, 2030s, 2040s, 2050s 2009 A2, B2 PRECIS RCM CERES-Rice 10.5
(11.0 to 21.0)
Single and double rice
2011-2050 2000-2009 A2, B2 PRECIS RCM Agro-C -3.3 20.9 3.2 28.6 [106]
Single and double rice
2030s, 2050s, 2070s 2000s RCP4.5 17 GCMs CERES-Rice -0.9
(-11.0 to 11.0)
(1.0 to 11.0)
Single and double rice
2106-2115 2006-2015 ET1.5℃, 2.0℃ 4 GCMs MCWLA-Rice -0.9
(-0.7, 2.4)
(4.1, 9.4)
平均 Average -10.7 5.3 5.6 22.2
2070-2100 1981-2010 RCP2.6, 4.5,
6.0, 8.5
11-22 ESMs 7 Global grid-based models -3.3, -5.5, -6.8, -10.8 [85]
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