气候变暖对冬油菜产量、品质及重要农艺性状的影响

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2025.44074

Abstract

Abstract:

The Middle Yangtze River basin is the most important region for rapeseed production in China. To investigate the impact of spatiotemporal changes in rainfall and temperature on rapeseed production in this region, we conducted a study using the elite rapeseed variety Huayouza 12, the control variety for the Middle Yangtze River group in the national rapeseed regional trial. The variety was planted at six test sites from 2013/2014 to 2022/2023, during which we recorded yield, quality-related traits, and other agronomic characteristics. Simultaneously, we collected meteorological data from each test site. We then analyzed the relationships between climate variables, such as rainfall and temperature during critical growth stages, and agronomic traits, including yield. The results showed that over the past decade, annual average rainfall significantly decreased. Rainfall during the sowing stage increased significantly and exhibited considerable fluctuations, while it decreased markedly during the seedling, flowering, and maturation stages, with relatively stable levels during the silique-developing stage. Additionally, the annual average temperature across the six sites increased significantly. Temperatures during the sowing and seedling stages decreased by approximately 2°C, fluctuated dramatically during bolting and maturation stages each year, and increased by more than 2°C during the flowering stage. Multiple regression analysis revealed a significant correlation between increased precipitation during key growth periods and reduced yield, leading to rapeseed production decreases of 9.6%, 12.8%, and 6.7% in three separate years, respectively. Canonical correlation analysis indicated that rainfall during the sowing stage and average temperature during the seedling stage were negatively correlated with the number of siliques per plant but positively correlated with the number of seeds per silique and 1000-seed weight. Furthermore, there was a positive correlation between rainfall during the sowing and silique-developing stages, as well as average temperatures during the sowing, seedling, bolting, flowering, and silique-developing stages, and the incidence of Sclerotinia disease. Given the observed spatiotemporal trends in rainfall and temperature, we suggest that special attention should be given to waterlogging in rapeseed cultivation. This includes breeding varieties with improved waterlogging tolerance, enhancing drainage and irrigation capacity in paddy fields, and strengthening the prevention and control of secondary disasters such as Sclerotinia disease to minimize waterlogging damage and ensure high and stable seed yields in rapeseed.

Key words: rapeseed, yield, rainfall, waterlogging, temperature, agronomic traits, climate warming

CHEN Yu-Ting, DING Xiao-Yu, XU Ben-Bo, ZHANG Xue-Kun, XU Jin-Song, YIN Yan. Effects of climate warming on yield, quality-related and agronomic traits of winter rapeseed (Brassica napus L.)[J].Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2025, 51(2): 516-525.

Figures/Tables 5

Table 1

Fig. 1

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年份 Year	播种期 Sowing	出苗期 Seedling	抽薹期 Bolting	初花期 Flowering	角果期 Silique development	成熟期 Maturation
2013/2014	09/27-10/06	10/03-10/10	11/17-12/10	02/20-03/02	03/17-03/26	04/26-05/03
2014/2015	09/25-10/04	09/30-10/08	11/11-12/17	02/18-02/28	03/22-03/30	04/26-05/05
2015/2016	09/28-10/13	10/03-10/17	11/25-12/24	02/16-02/26	03/20-03/29	04/28-05/04
2016/2017	09/26-10/01	09/30-10/07	11/12-12/21	02/20-02/29	03/24-03/30	04/26-05/08
2017/2018	09/26-10/07	10/02-10/11	11/23-12/18	02/17-03/01	03/16-03/25	04/23-05/01
2018/2019	09/25-10/04	09/29-10/15	11/17-12/29	02/15-02/23	03/20-03/29	05/01-05/09
2019/2020	09/27-10/06	10/02-10/15	11/12-12/19	02/15-02/29	03/15-03/26	04/22-05/10
2020/2021	10/01-10/15	10/06-10/21	11/27-12/15	02/17-02/20	03/16-03/26	04/25-05/08
2021/2022	09/28-10/05	10/02-10/12	11/12-01/03	02/20-02/28	03/22-03/28	04/30-05/06
2022/2023	09/28-10/07	10/02-10/15	11/24-12/13	02/26-03/05	03/20-03/26	04/26-05/07

年份 Year	密度 Density (×10⁴ plants hm⁻²)	株高 Plant height (cm)	单株角果数 Number of siliques per plant	角粒数 Number of seed per silique	千粒重 1000-seed weight (g)	生育期 Growth period (d)	产量 Yield (kg hm⁻²)	含油量 Oil content (%)	菌核病病指 Sclerotinia index of disease
2015/2016 (播种期和角果期降水偏多) 2015/2016 (more rainfall during sowing stage and silique development stage)	28.5±4.5	171.8±15.4	243.6±48.9	20.8±1.1	3.228±0.274	206.5±3.7	2333.1±328.3	41.4±0.8	14.3±13.3
2016/2017 (花期降水偏多) 2016/2017 (more rainfall during flowering stage)	28.5±7.5	185.4±19.7	257.8±131.3	20.9±1.4	3.458±0.261	212.4±4.1	2250.8±209.5	43.6±0.8	9.9±8.9
2020/2021 (播种期降水偏多) 2020/2021 (more rainfall during sowing stage)	25.5±3.0	182.9±24.9	216.2±52.0	22.4±2.5	3.772±0.225	207.2±5.8	2408.7±290.8	43.3±1.0	9.6±5.8
灾年平均 Disaster year average	27.0±6.0	180.0±20.0	239.2±88.0	21.3±1.9	3.486±0.338	208.7±5.3	2330.9±287.9	42.9±1.4	11.3±10.1
常年平均 Year-round average	30.0±4.5	186.8±13.4	254.4±41.0	20.8±1.9	3.658±0.394	210.8±5.6	2539.4±296.9	42.5±3.0	8.5±5.9
与播种期降雨量相关性 Correlation with the rainfall during sowing stage	0.034	-0.367^**	-0.230	0.073	-0.061	-0.317^*	-0.215	0.235	0.188
与花期降雨量相关性 Correlation with rainfall during flowering stage	0.049	-0.016	-0.176	0.158	0.018	0.042	-0.283^*	-0.154	0.250
与角果期降雨量相关性 Correlation with rainfall during silique development stage	-0.087	-0.184	-0.128	0.053	-0.059	-0.267^*	-0.327^*	0.132	0.237
与苗期日均气温相关性 Correlation with the average daily temperature	0.141	0.165	0.034	-0.329^*	0.015	0.050	-0.198	-0.047	-0.413^**

Effects of climate warming on yield, quality-related and agronomic traits of winter rapeseed (Brassica napus L.)

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