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作物学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (10): 1576-1585.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2019.81076

• 耕作栽培·生理生化 • 上一篇    下一篇

北部冬麦区冬小麦越冬冻害时空变化特征

孟繁圆1,冯利平1,*(),张丰瑶1,张祎2,伍露1,王春雷1,闫锦涛1,彭明喜1,莫志鸿3,余卫东4   

  1. 1中国农业大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100193
    2中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081
    3中粮贸易有限公司, 北京 100005
    4河南省气象科学研究所, 河南郑州 450003
  • 收稿日期:2018-10-17 接受日期:2019-05-12 出版日期:2019-10-12 网络出版日期:2019-09-10
  • 通讯作者: 冯利平
  • 基金资助:
    本研究由国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0300201-6);国家自然科学基金项目资助(31371528)

Temporal and spatial variations of winter wheat freezing injury in northern winter wheat region

MENG Fan-Yuan1,FENG Li-Ping1,*(),ZHANG Feng-Yao1,ZHANG Yi2,WU Lu1,WANG Chun-Lei1,YAN Jin-Tao1,PENG Ming-Xi1,MO Zhi-Hong3,YU Wei-Dong4   

  1. 1College of Resources & Environmental Sciences, China Agriculture University, Beijing 100193, China
    2Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
    3COFCO Trading Co. Ltd., Beijing 100005, China
    4China Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 450003, Henan, China
  • Received:2018-10-17 Accepted:2019-05-12 Published:2019-10-12 Published online:2019-09-10
  • Contact: Li-Ping FENG
  • Supported by:
    This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFD0300201-6);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31371528)

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摘要：

利用我国北部冬麦区43个气象站点1951—2014年气象资料, 综合考虑越冬期最大降温幅度、极端最低气温、负积温、平均气温、降水和风速等冬小麦越冬冻害致灾因子, 采用主成分法构建冬小麦冻害指数(FII), FII值越大, 冬小麦遭受冻害越严重。结合历史冻害灾情资料, 验证冻害指数在研究区域的适应性。采用M-K方法分析冬小麦冻害的突变特征, 探究北部冬麦区越冬冻害的时空分布特征。结果表明, FII能较好地反映北部冬麦区冬小麦冻害情况。近60年北部冬麦区冬小麦冻害指数的年际变化均呈显著下降趋势。1980年前后冻害指数发生突变, 气候变暖后我国北部冬麦区冬小麦冻害发生的频率、程度和范围明显减少; 而由于气候变化的不稳定性增加, 自2000年以来, 冬小麦中度到重度冻害有所增加。冻害指数的空间分布总体呈现随着纬度和海拔高度的增加而加重的趋势。燕太山麓平原副区遭受冻害最为严重, 黄土高原沟壑副区和晋冀山地盆地副区遭受冻害较轻。

关键词: 冬小麦, 越冬期, 冻害指数, 北部冬麦区, 时空分布特征, 气候变暖

Abstract:

Base on daily meteorological data of 43 observation stations across northern China from 1951 to 2014, we calculated the freezing injury factors including maximum scale of drop in temperature, extreme minimum temperature, negative accumulated temperature, mean temperature, precipitation and wind speed during over-wintering stage. The freeze injury index (FII) of winter wheat was established by considering the freezing injury factors with principal component analysis. The greater the FII was, the more severe the freeze injury would occur. The Mann-Kendall method was used to analyze the mutation characteristics of FII, and explore the spatial-temporal distribution of freeze injury to winter wheat. The historical freeze injury of winter wheat could be actually reflected by the FII. The FII had a sudden change around 1980, which indicted the frequency and extent of winter wheat freezing injury in this region decreased significantly after climate warming. But due to the increasing of climate instability, the moderate to severe levels of freeze injury have increased since 2000. The annual FII had a declined trend significantly in the past 60 years, which was aggravated with increasing latitude and altitude in spatial distribution. The FII was high in Yan-Taihang Mountains and basin region relative to other two regions.

Key words: winter wheat, overwintering stage, freeze injury index (FII), the Northern winter wheat region, spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, climate warming

图1

研究区域内气象站点分布 I: 燕太山麓平原副区; II: 晋冀山地盆地副区; III: 黄土高原沟壑副区。"

表1

冬小麦越冬期关键气候因子及其计算方法"

因子Factor 计算方法Calculation method
最大降温幅度
Maximum scale of drop in temperature during over-wintering stage		 越冬期降温过程中连续72 h内日平均气温的最大降温幅度
The maximum temperature drop of daily average temperature during continuous cooling for 72 hours during over-wintering stage
越冬极端最低气温
Extreme minimum temperature during over-wintering stage		 越冬期出现的极端最低气温最小值
Extreme minimum temperature of over-wintering stage
越冬负积温
Negative accumulated temperature during over-wintering stage		 越冬期日平均气温﹤0℃的累积值
Accumulative value of average daily temperature <0℃
during over-wintering stage
越冬平均气温
Mean temperature during over-wintering stage		 越冬期日平均气温的均值
Average daily average temperature during over-wintering stage
越冬降水量
Precipitation during over-wintering stage		 越冬期逐日降水量累计值
Daily precipitation cumulative value during over-wintering stage
越冬平均风速
Wind speed during over-wintering stage		 越冬期日平均风速的均值
Mean daily wind speed during over-wintering stage

图2

3个副区内冻害指数FII构建流程图"

表2

冬小麦越冬冻害等级指标"

冻害指标
Freeze injury index		 致灾等级Disaster level
无冻害Freeze-free 轻度Mild 中度Moderate 重度Severe
冻害指数FII FII<0.55 0.55≤FII≤0.75 0.75≤FII<0.95 0.95≤FII<1.82
死苗率Mortality rate (%) <8 8~15 15~30 >30

图3

1951-2014年北部冬麦区冬小麦冻害指数年际变化趋势 I: 燕太山麓平原副区; II: 晋冀山地盆地副区; III: 黄土高原沟壑副区。**表示P<0.01。"

图4

1951-2014年北部冬麦区冬小麦冻害指数的M-K突变检验 I: 燕太山麓平原副区; II: 晋冀山地盆地副区; III: 黄土高原沟壑副区。"

图5

北部冬麦区不同年代冻害指数的空间分布 I: 燕太山麓平原副区; II: 晋冀山地盆地副区; III: 黄土高原沟壑副区。"

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