南方稻区水稻产量差的变化及其气候影响因素

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2012.00896

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了研究南方稻作区水稻理论生产潜力、单产的提升空间以及气候变化因素对水稻生产潜力的影响，探索区域水稻生产的限制因素和提高水稻产量的技术途径，本研究利用AZE (农业生态区域法)模型对南方稻区1980—2010水稻光温生产潜力进行测算，结合水稻大田平均产量，对该区域水稻光温生产潜力和大田平均单产之间的产量差及其时空变化特点进行研究，并分析了产量差变化的气候影响因素。分析表明，30年来该区域早稻光温生产潜力呈上升趋势，且增幅大于实际产量增加的幅度，二者之间的产量差不断扩大；一季中稻光温生产潜力呈下降趋势，产量差逐步缩小；晚稻光温生产潜力亦呈不断下降的趋势，产量差不断缩小。对区域气候变化分析表明，水稻生育期内辐射总量及温度变化是影响光温生产潜力的关键因子，早稻生育期内温度升高对水稻产量的正效应超过辐射下降的负效应，光温生产潜力不断增加，而一季中稻及晚稻生育期内辐射下降对产量的影响更大，水稻生产潜力呈下降趋势。不同省份间，水稻生育期内辐射及温度变化不同，光温生产潜力及产量差变化趋势空间差异明显。

关键词: 南方稻区, 水稻, 产量差, 光温生产潜力, 气候因素

Abstract: In order to study theoretical potential productivity, yield promotion space, yield constraints and the solution approaches,we used AEZ (Agricultural Ecology Zone) model to estimate the photothermal potential productivity of rice and calculate the rice yield gaps from 1980 to 2010 in southern China. The results showed that early rice potential productivity continued to increase with grater increasing rate than the actual yield, so the early rice yield gap became bigger. The potential productivity of medium rice and late rice was declined; and the rice yield gap became smaller. The analysis of climatic factors showed that temperature and radiation in rice growth period were the most important impact factors for rice potential yield and yield gaps. The positive effect of temperature increasing for the early rice was bigger than the negative effect of radiation declining, resulting in the increase of the potential productivity. On the contrary, the negative effect of radiation declining for medium rice and late rice was bigger, so the potential productivity was dropping. The temperature and radiation in rice growth period were different, causing different changing trends of rice potential yield and yield gap between provinces.

Key words: Southern China, Rice, Yield gap, Photothermal potential productivity, Climatic factors

石全红，刘建刚，王兆华，陶婷婷，陈阜，褚庆全. 南方稻区水稻产量差的变化及其气候影响因素[J]. 作物学报, 2012, 38(05): 896-903.

SHI Quan-Hong,LIU Jian-Gang,WANG Zhao-Hua,TAO Ting-Ting,CHEN Fu,CHU Qing-Quan. Change of Rice Yield Gaps and Influential Climatic Factors in Southern China[J]. Acta Agron Sin, 2012, 38(05): 896-903.

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