基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对新疆棉花物候期及产量的影响

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2026.54092

作物学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (2): 590-602.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2026.54092

基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对新疆棉花物候期及产量的影响

周琦翔(), 朱艳, 汪楚博, 朱柏林, 李俊博, 宋利兵()

石河子大学水利建筑工程学院 / 现代节水灌溉兵团重点实验室, 新疆石河子 832000

收稿日期:2025-07-25 接受日期:2025-10-30 出版日期:2026-02-12 网络出版日期:2025-11-07
通讯作者: *宋利兵 E-mail:songlibing@shzu.edu.cn
作者简介:E-mail: zhouzhouzd@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(52169011);新疆生产建设兵团科技计划项目(2023CB010);乡村振兴产业发展科技行动项目(2024NC068);自治区天池英才青年博士人才项目(Project awarded to Dr)

Modeling the effects of climate change on cotton phenology and potential yield in Xinjiang based on the DSSAT model

Zhou Qi-Xiang(), Zhu Yan, Wang Chu-Bo, Zhu Bo-Lin, Li Jun-Bo, Song Li-Bing()

College of Hydraulic and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University / Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, Xinjiang, China

Received:2025-07-25 Accepted:2025-10-30 Published:2026-02-12 Published online:2025-11-07
Contact: *Song Li-Bing E-mail:songlibing@shzu.edu.cn
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(52169011);Science and Technology Program of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps(2023CB010);Rural Revitalization Industrial Development Science and Technology Action Project(2024NC068);“Tianchi Talents” Young Doctor Program of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Project awarded to Dr)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新疆作为中国最重要的棉花生产基地, 其生产安全对保障国家农业经济具有重要意义。为定量评估气候变化对新疆棉花生长的影响, 本研究基于新疆14个农业气象观测站和65个气象观测站点1990—2020年的逐日气象资料和棉花生长观测数据, 对DSSAT作物模型进行调参和验证; 利用模型分析新疆棉花物候期和潜在产量的时空演变特征; 并通过Mann-Kendall检验和去趋势分析方法解析关键气候因子的贡献率。结果表明: (1) 新疆棉花播种—开花期天数、播种—成熟期天数和产量模拟值与观测值调参(验证)的绝对相对误差分别为1.80% (1.51%)、0.85% (1.18%)、5.38% (5.44%), 归一化均方根误差分别为9.56% (14.06%)、9.71% (11.50%)、11.30% (11.34%), DSSAT模型表现出良好的模拟性能。(2) 在棉花播期和品种保持不变的条件下, 1990—2020年新疆棉花播种—开花期天数和播种—成熟期天数分别以1.26 d 10a^-1和2.54 d 10a^-1的速率显著缩短(P < 0.05), 而潜在产量则以159.61 kg hm^-2 10a^-1的速率显著增加; (3) 空间分析显示, 各站点棉花物候期及产量变化均达到显著水平(P < 0.05), 其中播种—开花期、播种—成熟期和潜在产量达到显著(极显著)水平的站点分别占33.8% (55.4%)、24.76% (64.6%)和29.2% (50.8%); 各气象因子对棉花潜在产量的影响效应从大到小表现为每日太阳辐射>日最高气温>降雨>日最低温度。DSSAT模型可较好地模拟新疆棉花生长发育和产量, 气候变化明显影响新疆棉花物候期和棉花潜在产量。本研究可为新疆乃至其他地区棉花作物模型研究、产量预报和气候变化评估提供数据支撑和理论依据。

关键词: 新疆棉花, DSSAT模型, 气候变化, 物候期, 产量

Abstract:

As China’s most important cotton production base, Xinjiang plays a crucial role in safeguarding national agricultural and economic security. To quantitatively assess the impact of climate change on cotton growth in this region, daily meteorological data (1990-2020) from 14 agro-meteorological observation stations and 65 meteorological stations, along with cotton growth observation records, were used to calibrate and validate the DSSAT crop model. The validated model was then employed to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in cotton phenology and potential yield across Xinjiang. Additionally, the contributions of key climatic factors were examined using the Mann-Kendall trend test and detrending analysis. The results showed that: (1) For calibration (and validation), the absolute relative errors between simulated and observed values for sowing-flowering date, sowing-maturity date, and yield were 1.80% (1.51%), 0.85% (1.18%), and 5.38% (5.44%), respectively, with normalized root mean square errors of 9.56% (14.06%), 9.71% (11.50%), and 11.30% (11.34%), indicating good model performance. (2) Under fixed sowing dates and cultivar conditions, the durations of sowing-flowering and sowing-maturity significantly decreased (P < 0.05) at rates of 1.26 d 10a^-1 and 2.54 d 10a^-1, respectively, from 1990 to 2020, while potential yield significantly increased at a rate of 159.61 kg hm^-2 10a^-1. (3) Spatial analysis revealed that changes in cotton phenology and yield were significant at most stations (P < 0.05), with the proportions of stations showing significant or highly significant trends being 33.8% (55.4%) for sowing-flowering, 24.76% (64.6%) for sowing-maturity, and 29.2% (50.8%) for potential yield. The relative contributions of climatic factors to potential yield were ranked as follows: daily solar radiation > maximum temperature > precipitation > minimum temperature. Overall, the DSSAT model effectively simulated cotton growth, development, and yield in Xinjiang, and climate change was found to have a significant impact on cotton phenology and potential yield. These findings provide valuable data support and a theoretical basis for crop model applications, yield forecasting, and climate impact assessments in Xinjiang and similar agro-ecological regions.

Key words: Xinjiang cotton, DSSAT model, climate change, phenology, yield

周琦翔, 朱艳, 汪楚博, 朱柏林, 李俊博, 宋利兵. 基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对新疆棉花物候期及产量的影响[J]. 作物学报, 2026, 52(2): 590-602.

Zhou Qi-Xiang, Zhu Yan, Wang Chu-Bo, Zhu Bo-Lin, Li Jun-Bo, Song Li-Bing. Modeling the effects of climate change on cotton phenology and potential yield in Xinjiang based on the DSSAT model[J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2026, 52(2): 590-602.

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链接本文: https://zwxb.chinacrops.org/CN/10.3724/SP.J.1006.2026.54092

https://zwxb.chinacrops.org/CN/Y2026/V52/I2/590

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参数 Parameter	描述 Description	单位 Unit	固定值 Fixed value	取值范围 Range
CSDL	临界光周期 Critical photoperiod	h	23
PPSEN	光周期敏感系数 Photoperiod sensitivity coefficient		0.01
EM-FL	出苗到初花期光热时间 Thermal-photoperiod time from emergence to first flower	h		29-45
FL-SH	初花期到第1个棉铃产生的光热时间 Thermal-photoperiod time from first flower to first boll	h		8-30
FL-SD	初花期到第1个籽粒产生的光热时间 Thermal-photoperiod time from first flower to first seed	h		12-18
SD-PM	第1个籽粒产生到生理成熟的光热时间 Thermal-photoperiod time from first seed to physiological maturity	h		40-54
FL-LF	初花期到叶片停止扩展的光热时间 Thermal-photoperiod time from first flower to end of leaf expansion	h		70-80
LFMAX	最适合条件下叶片最大光合速率 Maximum photosynthetic rate of leaf under optimum conditions	mg m^-2 s^-1		0.95-1.15
SLAVR	比叶面积 Specific leaf area	cm² g^-1		170-250
SIZIF	单叶面积 Individual leaf area	cm²		170-230
XFRT	每日分配给棉铃的干物质量的最大比例 Maximum daily fraction of dry matter allocated to bolls	%		0.5-0.9
WTPSD	籽粒最大质量 Maximum weight per seed	g	0.18
SFDUR	种子填充棉铃仓的持续时间 Duration of seed filling in boll locules	h		30-40
SDPDV	正常条件下单个棉铃平均籽粒数 Average number of seeds per boll under normal conditions	No. boll^-1		20-27
PODUR	最优条件下最终棉铃负载所需时间 Time required to reach final boll load under optimal conditions	h		5-15
THRSH	籽棉质量与棉铃质量的比 Ratio of seed cotton weight to total boll weight	%		70-80
SDPRO	籽粒中蛋白质的含量 Protein content in seed	g g^-1	0.153
SDLIP	籽粒中油脂的含量 Oil content in seed	g g^-1	0.12

站点 Station	品种 Variety	调参年份 Calibration year	验证年份 Validation year
和田Hotan	中棉49 Zhongmian 49	2006, 2007	2008, 2009
喀什Kashgar	新陆中36 Xinluzhong 36	2010, 2011	2012
阿克苏Aksu	新陆中40 Xinluzhong 40	2009, 2010, 2011	2012
莎车Yarkant	中棉43 Zhongmian 43	2006, 2007, 2008	2009
于田Yutian	新陆早36 Xinluzao 36	2009, 2010	2011, 2012
吐鲁番Turpan	新陆早26 Xinluzao 26	2005, 2006, 2007	2008
巴楚Marabishi	新海24 Xinhai 24	2008, 2009, 2010	2012
哈密Hami	冀杂708 Jiza 708	2010	2011
若羌Ruoqiang	新陆中46 Xinluzhong 46	2010, 2011	2012
昌吉Changji	中棉42 Zhongmian 42	2010, 2011	2012
博尔塔拉Bortala	中棉81 Zhongmian 81	2010, 2011	2012
轮台Bugur	新陆早33 Xinluzao 33	2011	2012
沙湾Shawan	新陆早46 Xinluzao 46	2010, 2011	2012
库尔勒Korla	新陆中32 Xinluzhong 32	2007, 2008	2009

站点 Station	EM-FL (h)	FL-SH (h)	FL-SD (h)	SD-PM (h)	FL-LF (h)	LFMAX (mg m^-2 s^-1)
和田Hotan	43.64	11	16.40	46.60	75	0.956
喀什Kashgar	42.80	11	15.71	44.48	75	0.951
阿克苏Aksu	41.67	8	15.87	43.22	75	0.977
莎车Yarkant	45.00	11	17.96	53.15	75	1.149
于田Yutian	44.41	11	15.70	52.46	75	0.952
吐鲁番Turpan	38.34	8	17.92	53.55	75	0.950
巴楚县Marabishi	36.16	11	17.84	44.89	75	0.954
哈密Hami	41.58	8	15.53	44.09	75	0.953
若羌Ruoqiang	44.99	8	16.48	53.86	75	0.999
昌吉Changji	41.29	11	14.52	40.38	75	0.951
博尔塔拉Bortala	38.32	11	12.04	40.21	75	1.149
轮台Bugur	39.17	8	15.93	44.00	75	1.149
沙湾Shawan	44.95	8	12.03	44.15	75	0.951
库尔勒Korla	40.30	8	16.05	43.80	75	1.024
站点 Station	SLAVR (cm² g^-1)	SIZIF (cm²)	XFRT (%)	SFDUR (h)	PODUR (h)	THRSH (%)
和田Hotan	222.0	257.7	0.61	24.85	12	70
喀什Kashgar	239.9	252.8	0.51	20.43	12	70
阿克苏Aksu	172.1	284.1	0.80	20.37	8	70
莎车Yarkant	171.4	292.9	0.61	32.84	12	70
于田Yutian	171.5	252.2	0.61	21.14	12	70
吐鲁番Turpan	239.1	250.4	0.80	38.77	8	70
巴楚县Marabishi	244.5	253.3	0.61	20.83	12	70
哈密Hami	170.1	256.7	0.80	39.54	8	70
若羌Ruoqiang	170.2	268.2	0.80	38.78	8	70
昌吉Changji	234.0	250.0	0.61	20.29	12	70
博尔塔拉Bortala	239.5	298.4	0.61	31.43	12	70
轮台Bugur	230.0	295.4	0.80	20.75	8	70
沙湾Shawan	174.2	255.3	0.80	29.89	8	70
库尔勒Korla	183.6	281.3	0.80	22.75	8	70

统计量 Statistical metrics	播种到开花天数 Days from sowing to flowering	播种到成熟天数 Days from sowing to maturity	产量 Yield
绝对相对误差Absolute relative error	1.51%-1.80%	0.85%-1.18%	5.38%-5.44%
归一化均方根误差Normalized root mean square error	9.56%-14.06%	9.71%-11.50%	11.30%-11.34%

基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对新疆棉花物候期及产量的影响

Modeling the effects of climate change on cotton phenology and potential yield in Xinjiang based on the DSSAT model

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