基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对新疆棉花物候期及产量的影响

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2026.54092

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新疆作为中国最重要的棉花生产基地，其生产安全对保障国家农业经济具有重要意义。为定量评估气候变化对新疆棉花生长的影响，本研究基于新疆14个农业气象观测站和65个气象观测站点1990—2020年的逐日气象资料和棉花生长观测数据，对DSSAT作物模型进行调参和验证；利用模型分析新疆棉花物候期和潜在产量的时空演变特征；并通过Mann-Kendall检验和去趋势分析方法解析了关键气候因子的贡献率。结果表明：(1) 新疆棉花播种—开花期天数、播种—成熟期天数和产量模拟值与观测值调参(验证)的绝对相对误差分别为1.80% (1.51%)、0.85% (1.18%)、5.38% (5.44%)，归一化均方根误差分别为9.56% (14.06%)、9.71% (11.50%)、11.30% (11.34%)，DSSAT模型表现出良好的模拟性能。(2) 在棉花播期和品种保持不变条件下，1990—2020年新疆棉花播种—开花期天数和播种—成熟期天数分别以1.26 d 10a^?1和2.54 d 10a^?1的速率显著缩短(P < 0.05)，而潜在产量则以159.61 kg hm?² 10a^?1的速率显著增加；(3) 空间分析显示，各站点棉花物候期及产量变化均达到显著水平(P < 0.05)，其中播种—开花期、播种—成熟期和潜在产量达到显著/极显著水平的站点分别占33.8% (55.4%)、24.76 (64.6%)和29.2% (50.8%)；各气象因子对棉花潜在产量的影响效应从大到小表现为每日太阳辐射>日最高气温>降雨>日最低温度。DSSAT模型可较好地模拟新疆棉花生长发育和产量，气候变化明显影响新疆棉花物候期和棉花潜在产量。本研究可为新疆乃至其他地区棉花作物模型研究、产量预报和气候变化评估提供数据支撑和理论依据。

关键词: 新疆棉花, DSSAT模型, 气候变化, 物候期, 产量

Abstract: As China’s most important cotton production base, Xinjiang plays a crucial role in safeguarding national agricultural and economic security. To quantitatively assess the impact of climate change on cotton growth in this region, daily meteorological data (1990–2020) from 14 agro-meteorological observation stations and 65 meteorological stations, along with cotton growth observation records, were used to calibrate and validate the DSSAT crop model. The validated model was then employed to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in cotton phenology and potential yield across Xinjiang. Additionally, the contributions of key climatic factors were examined using the Mann–Kendall trend test and detrending analysis. The results showed that: (1) For calibration (and validation), the absolute relative errors between simulated and observed values for sowing–flowering date, sowing–maturity date, and yield were 1.80% (1.51%), 0.85% (1.18%), and 5.38% (5.44%), respectively, with normalized root mean square errors of 9.56% (14.06%), 9.71% (11.50%), and 11.30% (11.34%), indicating good model performance. (2) Under fixed sowing dates and cultivar conditions, the durations of sowing–flowering and sowing–maturity significantly decreased (P < 0.05) at rates of 1.26 d 10a^?1 and 2.54 d 10a^?1, respectively, from 1990 to 2020, while potential yield significantly increased at a rate of 159.61 kg hm^?² 10a^?1. (3) Spatial analysis revealed that changes in cotton phenology and yield were significant at most stations (P < 0.05), with the proportions of stations showing significant or highly significant trends being 33.8% (55.4%) for sowing–flowering, 24.7% (64.6%) for sowing–maturity, and 29.2% (50.8%) for potential yield. The relative contributions of climatic factors to potential yield were ranked as follows: daily solar radiation > maximum temperature > precipitation > minimum temperature. Overall, the DSSAT model effectively simulated cotton growth, development, and yield in Xinjiang, and climate change was found to have a significant impact on cotton phenology and potential yield. These findings provide valuable data support and a theoretical basis for crop model applications, yield forecasting, and climate impact assessments in Xinjiang and similar agro-ecological regions.

Key words: Xinjiang cotton, DSSAT model, climate change, phenology, yield

周琦翔, 朱艳, 汪楚博, 朱柏林, 李俊博, 宋利兵. 基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对新疆棉花物候期及产量的影响[J]. 作物学报, 0, (): 0-.

Zhou Qi-Xiang, Zhu Yan, Wang Chu-Bo, Zhu Bo-Lin, Li Jun-Bo, Song Li-Bing. Modeling the effects of climate change on cotton phenology and potential yield in Xinjiang based on the DSSAT model[J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 0, (): 0-.

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