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作物学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (11): 3434-3448.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2026.63029

• 耕作栽培·生理生化 • 上一篇    下一篇

云南中海拔高原区夏玉米生育期的降水、需水与水分盈亏特征分析

郭松1，王丹2，余明勇3，李求卓1，杨正南1，田晋钰4，戚司棋1，蒋格3，段雪梅5，张加云6,*，李蒙6,*   

  1. 1 宣威市气象局, 云南宣威 655400; 2 罗平县气象局, 云南曲靖 655800; 3 沾益区气象局, 云南曲靖 655500; 4 贵州省水稻研究所, 贵州贵阳 550006; 5 曲靖市气象局, 云南曲靖 655000; 6 云南省气候中心, 云南昆明 650100
  • 收稿日期:2026-03-03 修回日期:2026-07-20 接受日期:2026-07-20 出版日期:2026-11-12 网络出版日期:2026-07-22
  • 通讯作者: 张加云, E-mail: 36913878@qq.com; 李蒙, E-mail: limeng5945@sina.com
  • 基金资助:
    本研究由曲靖市气象局自设科研项目(QJ202512, QJ202511), 云南基层台站气象科技创新与能力提升计划项目(STIAP202507, STIAP202508)和云南省气象局科技创新青年基金项目(QN202505)资助。

Analysis of precipitation, water demand, and water surplus/deficit characteristics during the growth period of summer maize in the mid-altitude plateau region of Yunnan province, China

Guo Song1,Wang Dan2,Yu Ming-Yong3,Li Qiu-Zhuo1,Yang Zheng-Nan1,Tian Jin-Yu4,Qi Si-Qi1,Jiang Ge3,Duan Xue-Mei5, Zhang Jia-Yun6,*,Li Meng6,*   

  1. 1 Meteorological Bureau of Xuanwei City, Xuanwei 655400, Yunnan, China; 2 Meteorological Bureau of Luoping County, Qujing 655800, Yunnan, China; 3 Meteorological Bureau of Zhanyi District, Qujing 655500, Yunnan, China; 4 Guizhou Rice Research Institute, Guiyang 550006, Guizhou, China; 5 Meteorological Bureau of Qujing City, Qujing 655000, Yunnan, China; 6 Yunnan Provincial Climate Center, Kunming 650100, Yunnan, China
  • Received:2026-03-03 Revised:2026-07-20 Accepted:2026-07-20 Published:2026-11-12 Published online:2026-07-22
  • Supported by:
    This study was supported by the self-established research project of the Qujing Meteorological Bureau (QJ202512, QJ202511), the Yunnan Grassroots Meteorological Station Science and Technology Innovation and Capacity Enhancement Program (STIAP202507, STIAP202508), and the Yunnan Provincial Meteorological Bureau Science and Technology Innovation Youth Fund (QN202505).

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摘要： 明确气候变化背景下云南中海拔高原区夏玉米生育期的降水、需水与水分盈亏特征，对于区域预防干旱灾害，保障粮食安全生产意义重大。本研究利用1959—2023年的逐日气象数据，采用作物系数法系统分析不同生育阶段水分供需的年际演变趋势与差异，以及生育期内旬(10 d)尺度变化，并基于水分盈亏指数评估旱涝风险概率。结果表明：(1) 年际演变上，全生育期的降水量与有效降水量每10年分别显著下降25.25 mm和9.06 mm，下降趋势在抽雄—乳熟与乳熟—成熟阶段亦显著；需水量除了在乳熟—成熟阶段每10年显著下降0.78 mm外，全生育期无显著变化。这造成全生育期的补充灌溉量每10年显著增加7.80 mm，抽雄—乳熟与乳熟—成熟阶段也显著增加。(2) 旬尺度变化上，降水量与有效降水量均呈单峰分布，峰值分别出现在6月下旬和7月下旬，而整个生育期内，仅5月下旬—8月下旬的降水高于平均水平；需水量则呈“中-高-低”三等级分布，6月上旬—7月下旬均为需水高峰期，明显高于旬平均值，此时段降水小于需水，造成水分供需在关键期出现错位，导致该时段的补充灌溉量高达12.35~19.27 mm。(3) 主要生育阶段的降水量与有效降水量均呈“先升后降”格局并均在播种—出苗最低，降水量在拔节—抽雄最高，有效降水量在抽雄—乳熟最高。而需水量在拔节—抽雄最高，此后逐步下降，在乳熟—成熟最低。全生育期净水分亏缺严重，最低需补灌(集中在播种—乳熟) 114.09 mm才能满足夏玉米生长，而乳熟—成熟的水分盈余量高达21.68 mm，需关注排涝。(4) 水分盈亏指数表明，尽管全生育期水分适宜的概率高达0.80，但部分生育阶段水分供需失衡，其中播种—出苗干旱高发(概率为0.65)，出苗—乳熟水分较适宜(概率为0.58~0.73)，乳熟—成熟易涝(概率为0.50)。研究结果可为云南中海拔高原区夏玉米生产制定针对性抗旱减灾与水资源科学管理策略提供重要参考。

关键词: 夏玉米, 中海拔高原区, 生育期, 需水量, 旱涝风险概率

Abstract: Understanding the water supply and demand characteristics of summer maize in the mid-altitude plateau region of Yunnan Province is critical for drought prevention and water management under climate change. Based on daily meteorological data from 1959 to 2023, this study used the crop coefficient method to analyze interannual trends and differences in water supply and demand across different growth stages, as well as variations at the 10-day, or dekad, scale. A water surplus/deficit index was used to assess drought and waterlogging risks at different levels. The results showed that: (1) Over the entire growing season, precipitation and effective precipitation decreased significantly by 25.25 mm and 9.06 mm per decade, respectively, particularly during the tasseling–maturity stage. Water demand showed no significant trend, except for a decrease of 0.78 mm per decade during the milk–maturity stage. Consequently, the supplemental irrigation requirement increased by 7.80 mm per decade over the whole season. (2) At the dekad scale, both precipitation and effective precipitation showed a unimodal distribution, peaking in late June and late July, respectively. Water demand peaked from early June to late July, exceeding precipitation and resulting in a mismatch between water supply and demand, with supplemental irrigation requirements of 12.35–19.27 mm. (3) Across the main growth stages, precipitation and effective precipitation first increased and then decreased, reaching their maxima during the jointing–tasseling and tasseling–milk stages, respectively. Water demand was highest during the jointing–tasseling stage and lowest during the milk–maturity stage. As a result, a net water deficit requiring 114.08 mm of supplemental irrigation occurred from sowing to milk stage, whereas the milk–maturity stage showed a water surplus of 21.68 mm, indicating a need for drainage. (4) The water surplus/deficit index indicated a high probability of suitable water conditions over the whole growing season (0.80). However, drought was highly likely during the sowing–emergence stage (0.65), water conditions were relatively suitable from emergence to milk stage (0.58–0.73), and waterlogging was likely during the milk–maturity stage (0.50). These findings provide a scientific basis for targeted drought mitigation, drainage management, and efficient water regulation for summer maize production in this region.

Key words: summer maize, mid-altitude plateau region, growth period, water demand, drought/flooding risk probability

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