Abstract: Increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration is expected to induce significant climate change over the next century, but the impacts on society remain highly uncertain. This paper aimed to assess the potential impacts of climate change on rice crop (Oryza sativa L.) production in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, where is one of the most important food production regions in China. Data taken from the PRECIS regional climate model were used as the baseline (1961–1990) and future (2021–2050) periods under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenario conditions, and were used as input of the rice model ORYZA2000. Simulations were performed with and without considering the enhanced CO₂-fertilization effects to evaluate the response of rice crop to raised temperature and CO₂ concentration, respectively. The results indicated that the rice growth duration would be shortened and yield would be declined significantly with raising temperature future when CO₂-fertilization effects was not considered. The rice growth duration would be shortened by 4.5 d and yield would be reduced by 15.2% under A2 scenario in 2021–2050 periods compared with the baseline weather while they would be 3.4 d shortened and 15% reduced respectively under B2 scenario in the same period. The areas where rice yield reduced more than 20% concentrated on most regions of Anhui, Hubei and Hunan provinces. The significance of the enhanced CO₂-fertilization effect to rice crop was found under the simulated future elevated CO₂ concentrations (2021-2050) for both A2 and B2 scenarios. But it was still not enough to offset the negative effects of warming for single crop rice and early rice, except for the late rice that the contribution of CO₂-fertilization effect on rice yield was greater. With considering CO₂-fertilization effect, the rice yields declined by 5.1% and 5.8% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. The areas with a serious yield reduction decreased and the average yield reduction were lessened remarkably. Meanwhile, the areas with an increase in rice yields were founded in some parts of Jiangxi and Zhejiang provinces, although the yield increase might be less than 10%. In addition, the yield stability, defined as the ratio of standard deviation to average yield at each grid across each province, would be increased in 2021–2050 periods when CO₂-fertilization effect was considered, indicating that the CO₂-fertilization effect may reduce the future yield variability. However, there were still many uncertainties in this study. The possible impact of water stress under future climate was not considered, due to the automatic irrigation pattern selected. The soil parameters used as input to the ORYZA2000 might increase the uncertainties for assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yield. Finally, the overall results were compared with those in other studies, in which CERES-Rice was employed and a good agreement was obtained, indicating that the rice model ORYZA2000 can be well applied in assessing the impact of climate change on rice crop in China.

Key words: Middle and Lower Valley of the Yangtze River, Climate change, Rice, ORYZA2000