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作物学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (2): 297-309.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2019.83010

• 耕作栽培·生理生化 • 上一篇    下一篇

淮河流域夏玉米生育阶段需水量及农业干旱时空特征

高超1,李学文2,孙艳伟1,周婷3,罗纲1,陈财1   

  1. 1宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系, 浙江宁波 315211
    2安徽师范大学地理与旅游学院, 安徽芜湖 241000
    3安徽农业大学水利工程系, 安徽合肥 230036
  • 收稿日期:2018-01-21 接受日期:2018-08-20 出版日期:2019-02-12 网络出版日期:2018-09-17
  • 基金资助:
    本研究由国家自然科学基金项目(41571018);本研究由国家自然科学基金项目(51509001);安徽省自然科学基金项目(1608085QE112);安徽省高校优秀青年人才支持计划项目重点项目资助(gxyqZD2017019)

Spatiotemporal characteristics of water requirement and agricultural drought during summer maize season in Huaihe River Basin

Chao GAO1,Xue-Wen LI2,Yan-Wei SUN1,Ting ZHOU3,Gang LUO1,Cai CHEN1   

  1. 1 Department of Geography & Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China;
    2 School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, Anhui, China
    3 Department of Water Resources Engineering, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, Anhui, China
  • Received:2018-01-21 Accepted:2018-08-20 Published:2019-02-12 Published online:2018-09-17
  • Supported by:
    This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41571018);This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51509001);the Natural Science Fund of Anhui Province(1608085QE112);and the Talent Training Program for Universities of Anhui Province(gxyqZD2017019)

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摘要：

基于淮河流域110个气象站点1961—2015年日尺度气象资料, 利用Penman-Monteith (P-M)公式和作物系数法, 分析夏玉米各生育阶段需水量时空变化特征, 以作物水分亏缺指数(Crop Water Deficit Index, CWDI)为农业干旱评价指标, 揭示夏玉米生育期干旱时空演变规律, 并利用四大类33种分布函数拟合水分亏缺指数序列, 建立最优概率分布模型, 估算淮河流域夏玉米各生育阶段干旱发生概率。结果表明: 1)近55年来, 夏玉米生育期需水量均呈明显下降趋势, 空间分布均大致呈现流域中北部较高而西南部和东南部较低的特征; 2)夏玉米各生育阶段水分亏缺指数无明显趋势变化, 除拔节—抽雄期外, 其余生育阶段流域整体上均呈现水分亏缺状态, 且流域北部相对于南部水分亏缺严重; 3)夏玉米生育期中, 播种—出苗期和抽雄—乳熟期干旱发生概率最大, 除播种—出苗期特旱发生概率在30%~50%之间, 各生育阶段不同等级干旱概率均大致在20%以内。

关键词: 农业干旱, 作物水分亏缺指数, 夏玉米, 干旱概率, 最优概率分布模型

Abstract:

Based on daily meteorological data from 110 stations during 1961-2015 in the Huaihe River Basin, we analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of water requirement in different growth stages of summer maize by the Penman-Monteith (P-M) formula and ‘crop coefficient method’. Crop water deficit index (CWDI) was used as an indicator of drought evaluation to reveal the spatial and temporal variation of drought in summer maize growth period. The CWDI sequence was fitted by 33 distribution functions of four categories, and an optimal probability distribution model was established to estimate the probability of drought in the growth stages of summer maize in the Huaihe River Basin. In the past 55 years, the water requirement of summer maize in whole growth period and each growth stage showed a significant decreasing trend and the spatial distribution of water requirement showed higher in central and northern region and lower in southwest and southeast region. The trend of water deficit index in summer maize growth period did not change significantly. In addition to jointing-tasseling stage, the rest of the growing stages showed water deficit in whole the basin, and the northern region was more severely affected by water deficit than the southern region. During the growth period of summer maize, the probability of drought in the sowing-emergence stage and the tasseling-milking stage was the highest. Except for the probability between 30% and 50% of severe drought in the sowing-emergence period, the drought probability of different grades in each growth stage was less than 20%.

Key words: agricultural drought, crop water deficit index, summer maize, drought probability, optimal probability distribution model

图1

淮河流域数字高程模型(DEM)及气象站点位置"

表1

四大类概率分布函数"

有界概率分布函数
Bounded probability
distribution function		 无界概率分布函数
Unbounded probability
distribution function		 非负概率分布函数
Non-negative probability
distribution function		 广义分布函数
Generalized distribution
function
Beta Cauchy Chi-Squared Gen.Extreme Value
Pert Error Function Erlang Gen.Logistic
Power Function Gumbel Max Exponential Gen.Pareto
Triangular Gumbel Min Fatigue Life Phased Bi-Exponential
Uniform Laplace Gamma Phased Bi-Weibull
Logistic log-Logistic Wakeby
Normal Lognormal
Student’s t Pareto
Rayleigh
Weibull

图2

1961-2015年夏玉米生育期需水量和Mean-Kendall (M-K)趋势变化的空间特征"

图3

1961-2015年夏玉米生育期CWDI和Mean-Kendall (M-K)趋势变化空间特征"

图4

淮河流域110个站点夏玉米生育期水分亏缺指数的最优概率分布函数"

图5

夏玉米生育阶段干旱发生概率空间特征"

图6

夏玉米生育阶段不同等级干旱发生概率的空间分布"

图7

夏玉米生育期平均相对湿度(a)、平均风速(b)、日照时数(c)和太阳辐射(d)时间变化 图中黑色曲线为逐年气象要素变化, 虚线为线性趋势。"

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