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作物学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (2): 516-525.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2025.44074

• 耕作栽培·生理生化 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变暖对冬油菜产量、品质及重要农艺性状的影响

陈于婷1(), 丁晓雨2, 许本波1, 张学昆1, 徐劲松1,*(), 殷艳1,*()   

  1. 1长江大学农学院 / 农业农村部长江中游作物绿色高效生产重点实验室(部省共建) / 湿地生态与农业利用教育部工程研究中心, 湖北荆州 434025
    2中国农业科学院油料作物研究所 / 农业农村部油料作物生物学综合性实验室, 湖北武汉 430062
  • 收稿日期:2024-05-04 接受日期:2024-09-18 出版日期:2025-02-12 网络出版日期:2024-09-30
  • 通讯作者: 徐劲松, E-mail: xujinsong@yangtzeu.edu.cn; 殷艳, E-mail: yinyan2@126.com
  • 作者简介:E-mail: 1973168733@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    农业生物育种重大项目(2023ZD04042);农业农村部“适应气候变化油菜种植区划、病虫害气象灾害发生情况及防灾减灾品种技术监测调查”项目(152303046);农业农村部长江中游油菜单产提升技术集成示范基金项目(152304045);湖北省“515”行动(协同推广)油菜新技术示范科技服务油菜产业链项目

Effects of climate warming on yield, quality-related and agronomic traits of winter rapeseed (Brassica napus L.)

CHEN Yu-Ting1(), DING Xiao-Yu2, XU Ben-Bo1, ZHANG Xue-Kun1, XU Jin-Song1,*(), YIN Yan1,*()   

  1. 1College of Agronomy, Yangtze University / Key Laboratory of Green and Efficient Crop Production in the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs / Engineering Research Center of Wetland Ecology and Agricultural Use, Ministry of Education, Jingzhou 434025, Hubei, China
    2Institute of Oil Crops, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences / Key Laboratory of Oil Crop Biology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Wuhan 430062, Hubei, China
  • Received:2024-05-04 Accepted:2024-09-18 Published:2025-02-12 Published online:2024-09-30
  • Contact: E-mail: xujinsong@yangtzeu.edu.cn; E-mail: yinyan2@126.com
  • Supported by:
    Major Projects of Agricultural Biology Breeding of China(2023ZD04042);Planting Zoning of Rapeseed, Occurrence of Pests and Diseases and Technical Monitoring and Investigation of Disaster Resistant Varieties and Technology(152303046);Improving Rapeseed Yield Potential Ability in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River(152304045);Hubei Province Agriculture Extension Fund: Rapeseed Production Chain Technology Extenstion and Service

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摘要： 长江中游流域是我国最重要的油菜主产区, 为探明气候变暖下降雨和气温时空变化对我国油菜生产的影响规律, 本研究利用油菜主栽品种华油杂12 (国家油菜区试长江中游组对照品种), 在长江中游6个主产区开展10年定点试验, 同时记录试验点的气象数据, 并在此基础上分析了重要生育时期降雨量、气温等气象变化与产量等性状的关系。结果表明, 近10年来, 长江流域降雨时空分布发生明显变化, 全年平均降雨量显著减少。其中播种期降雨增加且波动较大, 苗期、花期和成熟期降雨减少趋势明显, 角果期降雨较稳定。近10年来长江流域气温发生明显变化, 6个油菜主产区的全年平均气温显著上升, 播种期和冬季苗期气温下降约2℃, 抽薹期和成熟期气温年度间波动剧烈, 花期气温上升2℃以上。多元回归分析发现, 播种期、花期和角果期降雨量与产量呈显著负相关, 10年间油菜出现3次显著减产, 分别减产9.6%、12.8%、6.7%。典型相关分析发现, 播种期降雨量和苗期平均气温与单株角果数呈显著负相关, 与每角粒数、千粒重呈显著正相关; 播种期和角果期降雨量, 及播种期、苗期、抽薹期、花期和角果期平均气温与菌核病发病率呈显著正相关。针对降雨和气温时空变化趋势, 建议生产上提高品种耐渍性和耐迟播能力, 改善农田排灌能力, 强化菌核病等次生灾害防控, 最大程度降低渍涝影响, 保障油菜高产稳产。

关键词: 油菜, 产量, 降雨量, 渍害, 气温, 农艺性状, 气候变暖

Abstract:

The Middle Yangtze River basin is the most important region for rapeseed production in China. To investigate the impact of spatiotemporal changes in rainfall and temperature on rapeseed production in this region, we conducted a study using the elite rapeseed variety Huayouza 12, the control variety for the Middle Yangtze River group in the national rapeseed regional trial. The variety was planted at six test sites from 2013/2014 to 2022/2023, during which we recorded yield, quality-related traits, and other agronomic characteristics. Simultaneously, we collected meteorological data from each test site. We then analyzed the relationships between climate variables, such as rainfall and temperature during critical growth stages, and agronomic traits, including yield. The results showed that over the past decade, annual average rainfall significantly decreased. Rainfall during the sowing stage increased significantly and exhibited considerable fluctuations, while it decreased markedly during the seedling, flowering, and maturation stages, with relatively stable levels during the silique-developing stage. Additionally, the annual average temperature across the six sites increased significantly. Temperatures during the sowing and seedling stages decreased by approximately 2°C, fluctuated dramatically during bolting and maturation stages each year, and increased by more than 2°C during the flowering stage. Multiple regression analysis revealed a significant correlation between increased precipitation during key growth periods and reduced yield, leading to rapeseed production decreases of 9.6%, 12.8%, and 6.7% in three separate years, respectively. Canonical correlation analysis indicated that rainfall during the sowing stage and average temperature during the seedling stage were negatively correlated with the number of siliques per plant but positively correlated with the number of seeds per silique and 1000-seed weight. Furthermore, there was a positive correlation between rainfall during the sowing and silique-developing stages, as well as average temperatures during the sowing, seedling, bolting, flowering, and silique-developing stages, and the incidence of Sclerotinia disease. Given the observed spatiotemporal trends in rainfall and temperature, we suggest that special attention should be given to waterlogging in rapeseed cultivation. This includes breeding varieties with improved waterlogging tolerance, enhancing drainage and irrigation capacity in paddy fields, and strengthening the prevention and control of secondary disasters such as Sclerotinia disease to minimize waterlogging damage and ensure high and stable seed yields in rapeseed.

Key words: rapeseed, yield, rainfall, waterlogging, temperature, agronomic traits, climate warming

表1

6个试验点2013/2014-2022/2023年油菜重要生育时期(月/日)"

年份
Year		 播种期
Sowing		 出苗期
Seedling		 抽薹期
Bolting		 初花期
Flowering		 角果期
Silique development		 成熟期
Maturation
2013/2014 09/27-10/06 10/03-10/10 11/17-12/10 02/20-03/02 03/17-03/26 04/26-05/03
2014/2015 09/25-10/04 09/30-10/08 11/11-12/17 02/18-02/28 03/22-03/30 04/26-05/05
2015/2016 09/28-10/13 10/03-10/17 11/25-12/24 02/16-02/26 03/20-03/29 04/28-05/04
2016/2017 09/26-10/01 09/30-10/07 11/12-12/21 02/20-02/29 03/24-03/30 04/26-05/08
2017/2018 09/26-10/07 10/02-10/11 11/23-12/18 02/17-03/01 03/16-03/25 04/23-05/01
2018/2019 09/25-10/04 09/29-10/15 11/17-12/29 02/15-02/23 03/20-03/29 05/01-05/09
2019/2020 09/27-10/06 10/02-10/15 11/12-12/19 02/15-02/29 03/15-03/26 04/22-05/10
2020/2021 10/01-10/15 10/06-10/21 11/27-12/15 02/17-02/20 03/16-03/26 04/25-05/08
2021/2022 09/28-10/05 10/02-10/12 11/12-01/03 02/20-02/28 03/22-03/28 04/30-05/06
2022/2023 09/28-10/07 10/02-10/15 11/24-12/13 02/26-03/05 03/20-03/26 04/26-05/07

图1

2014-2023年产量和气候变化"

图2

2013-2023年油菜关键生育期气象因子的变化趋势 X1: 播种期降雨量; X2: 苗期降雨量; X3: 抽薹期降雨量; X4: 花期降雨量; X5: 角果期降雨量; X6: 成熟期降雨量; X7: 播种期平均气温; X8: 苗期平均气温; X9: 抽薹期平均气温; X10: 花期平均气温; X11: 角果期平均气温; X12: 成熟期平均气温。"

表2

不同生育期降水偏多对油菜产量、品质等重要农艺性状的影响变化"

年份
Year		 密度
Density
(×104 plants hm−2)		 株高
Plant height
(cm)		 单株角果数
Number of siliques per plant		 角粒数
Number of seed per silique		 千粒重
1000-seed weight
(g)		 生育期
Growth period
(d)		 产量
Yield
(kg hm−2)		 含油量
Oil content
(%)		 菌核病病指
Sclerotinia index of disease
2015/2016 (播种期和角果期降水偏多)
2015/2016 (more rainfall during sowing stage and silique development stage)		 28.5±4.5 171.8±15.4 243.6±48.9 20.8±1.1 3.228±0.274 206.5±3.7 2333.1±328.3 41.4±0.8 14.3±13.3
2016/2017 (花期降水偏多)
2016/2017 (more rainfall during flowering stage)		 28.5±7.5 185.4±19.7 257.8±131.3 20.9±1.4 3.458±0.261 212.4±4.1 2250.8±209.5 43.6±0.8 9.9±8.9
2020/2021 (播种期降水偏多)
2020/2021 (more rainfall during sowing stage)		 25.5±3.0 182.9±24.9 216.2±52.0 22.4±2.5 3.772±0.225 207.2±5.8 2408.7±290.8 43.3±1.0 9.6±5.8
灾年平均
Disaster year average		 27.0±6.0 180.0±20.0 239.2±88.0 21.3±1.9 3.486±0.338 208.7±5.3 2330.9±287.9 42.9±1.4 11.3±10.1
常年平均
Year-round average		 30.0±4.5 186.8±13.4 254.4±41.0 20.8±1.9 3.658±0.394 210.8±5.6 2539.4±296.9 42.5±3.0 8.5±5.9
与播种期降雨量相关性
Correlation with the rainfall during sowing stage		 0.034 -0.367** -0.230 0.073 -0.061 -0.317* -0.215 0.235 0.188
与花期降雨量相关性
Correlation with rainfall during flowering stage		 0.049 -0.016 -0.176 0.158 0.018 0.042 -0.283* -0.154 0.250
与角果期降雨量相关性
Correlation with rainfall during silique development stage		 -0.087 -0.184 -0.128 0.053 -0.059 -0.267* -0.327* 0.132 0.237
与苗期日均气温相关性
Correlation with the average daily temperature		 0.141 0.165 0.034 -0.329* 0.015 0.050 -0.198 -0.047 -0.413**

图3

重要性状和气象条件间典型相关结构图"

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