湖北省一季稻发育期对气候变化的响应

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2025.42038

Abstract

Abstract:

To investigate the response of the phenological phases and growth period lengths (GLs) of single-cropping rice to climate change, we analyzed phenological data from five agricultural meteorological observation stations and daily meteorological records in Hubei Province from 1991 to 2020. Specifically, we examined variations in phenological phases and GLs and quantified their sensitivity to air temperature, ground temperature, daily temperature range, relative humidity, precipitation, and sunshine duration. The results showed that the phenological phases of single-cropping rice in Hubei Province exhibited a general delaying trend from 1991 to 2020, with an average delay of 2.97 days per decade. The most pronounced delay was observed in the maturity phase (4.99 days per decade). Similarly, the duration of phenological phases was primarily extended (3.22 days per decade), with the most significant elongation occurring in the tillering–jointing stage (8.17 days per decade). Among the climatic variables, daily average temperature had the strongest influence on the phenological phases and their durations. The correlation coefficients between daily average temperature and the transplanting, regreening, tillering, and jointing stages were ?0.59, ?0.45, ?0.47, and ?0.49, respectively (P < 0.05). Additionally, the sensitivity coefficients of daily average temperature for the jointing–booting, booting–heading, heading–milking, and milking–maturity stages, as well as the overall reproductive growth phase, were 7.79, 7.62, 5.69, and 9.17, respectively. Our findings indicate that air temperature, ground temperature, and daily temperature range are the dominant climatic factors affecting the phenological phases of single-cropping rice, while relative humidity, precipitation, and sunshine duration have relatively minor effects. However, climate factors alone explain only 48.22% of the variation in phenological phases and GLs. This suggests that, in addition to climatic influences, factors such as variety replacement, technological advancements, and changes in cultivation and management practices also significantly impact the growth period and GLs of single-cropping rice. Future research should aim to quantify the relative contributions of these factors.

Key words: Hubei province, single-cropping rice, phenological phase stages, climate change, sensitivity

WANG Fen, WU Dong-Li , ZHANG Quan-Jun. Response of phenological phase stages of single-cropping rice to climate change in Hubei province[J].Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2025, 51(7): 1934-1948.

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Response of phenological phase stages of single-cropping rice to climate change in Hubei province

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